AXIOS report that US and Iran make headway on Hormuz access ahead of technical-level talks

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Signs of progress on keeping the Strait of Hormuz open will ease the supply-risk premium that has been priced into crude since the conflict began, with traders likely to read the diplomat's comments as a reduction in tail risk for tanker flows. The shift toward technical-level talks in Switzerland suggests markets should expect incremental, slower-moving headlines rather than a single resolution event, tempering volatility in the near term. Lebanon's ceasefire enforcement remains the more fragile thread, and any breakdown there could quickly reverse the calmer tone. Energy desks will likely treat this as constructive but provisional until the technical teams produce concrete implementation details.---US diplomat says talks with Iran made "good progress" on keeping Hormuz open, with Lebanon ceasefire and nuclear deal also discussed in marathon Sunday-Monday sessions.Summary:According to a U.S. diplomat speaking to Axios's Barak Ravid:Talks with Iran began Sunday morning and have run almost continuously across multiple formatsLebanon deconfliction mechanisms and ceasefire enforcement were a key focusUS, Iran and mediators discussed the Strait of Hormuz, with "good progress" made on keeping it openDiscussions also covered all elements of the nuclear deal and MOU implementationAll four parties reportedly pleased with progress; mediators credited with helping both sidesHigh-level political talks expected to conclude Monday, with technical teams likely continuing in SwitzerlandUS and Iranian officials have been engaged in near-continuous talks since Sunday morning, spanning multiple formats and issues, according to a U.S. diplomat who briefed Axios's Barak Ravid.A central focus on Sunday was establishing deconfliction mechanisms for Lebanon and enforcing the existing ceasefire there. The diplomat said the US, Iran and mediating parties also addressed the Strait of Hormuz directly, following recent Iranian statements raising the prospect of closing it. The diplomat said the parties had made clear their intent to keep the strait fully open, describing "good progress" on that front.Talks also touched on every element of the nuclear deal, with what the diplomat called productive discussions on implementing the memorandum of understanding and ensuring all sides remain aligned. The parties additionally worked through a framework for sustaining momentum, both at the political leadership level and among technical teams.The diplomat characterized the day's talks positively, saying all four parties appeared satisfied with how discussions unfolded, crediting mediators with helping bridge gaps between the sides. The diplomat framed the round as an early step toward building trust.High-level political talks are expected to wrap up Monday, after which technical teams will likely remain in Switzerland to continue working through implementation details. ---Oil futures trade will begin for the new week at 6pm US Eastern time. Where we are at: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.