Trade Idea: EURUSD - Mild bearish / sell-rallies preferredEUR/USDOANDA:EURUSDNovaque_ResearchThe 1h has shifted bearish, with price below the key EMA cluster and negative directional pressure. The 15m has bounced from the intraday low, so the immediate entry is not clean. The 4h is still more a range/transition than outright bearish, as price sits close to the 200 EMA around 1.1705–1.1710. The dollar is being supported by hotter US inflation/producer-price data, higher yields, and reduced expectations of Fed easing. Reuters reported the dollar rising after a hotter-than-expected US PPI release. The broader market backdrop is also risk-sensitive, with Reuters noting elevated global yields, high oil prices, and geopolitical inflation pressure. That favours USD resilience unless risk appetite clearly improves. The DXY chart supports the EUR/USD short-rally thesis. DXY is in a clear 1h recovery structure, trading around 98.50, above the 9/21/55/200 EMA cluster. That means USD momentum is confirming downside pressure on EUR/USD. This improves the bearish confidence, but it also warns against chasing. DXY is approaching prior resistance around 98.60–98.80, so EUR/USD may bounce if DXY stalls there. The volume profile shows price is currently trading below the main high-volume/value area from 1 May onward. That supports the idea that EUR/USD has moved below accepted value and is trying to probe lower. However, price is not far below value, so a retest into the lower value area is possible before continuation. The key point: 1.1722–1.1747 is now the main sell-rally zone, not just a random EMA/VWAP area. Key Levels Bearish levels Bearish trigger 1: Rejection from 1.1722–1.1747 Bearish trigger 2: Acceptance below 1.1705–1.1709 Bearish invalidation: Initial invalidation: above 1.1747 Stronger invalidation: above 1.1770–1.1778 Bearish target 1: 1.1690–1.1680 Bearish target 2: 1.1670–1.1660 Bearish target 3: 1.1650–1.1635, only if downside acceptance expands Bullish levels Bullish trigger: Reclaim 1.1722, then 1.1747 Bullish invalidation: Back below 1.1705–1.1709 Bullish target 1: 1.1722 if buying from a sweep/reclaim near lows Bullish target 2: 1.1747–1.1760 Bullish target 3: 1.1770–1.1778, only if price re-enters value and holds Liquidity level: Downside liquidity: below 1.1705 Upside liquidity / value retest: 1.1722–1.1747, then 1.1770–1.1778 No-trade: No trade if price chops between 1.1705 and 1.1722. That is still the messy zone: too close to support to short cleanly, not strong enough for a long unless there is a reclaim.