USD/CAD Tests 1.37 as PPI Meets Oil-Driven CAD SupportUS DOLLAR VS CANADIANERRANTE:USDCADErranteFundamental Outlook Today’s direction depends mainly on U.S. PPI and the BoC communication tone. A firm PPI would reinforce the inflation shock from CPI, support U.S. yields, and increase the probability of a USD/CAD breakout above 1.3726. That would align the macro catalyst with the bullish technical structure. A softer PPI would weaken the dollar impulse. If oil remains firm at the same time, CAD could recover and pull USD/CAD back toward 1.3685, then 1.3670. The more CAD-positive outcome would be soft U.S. producer inflation combined with a BoC summary that emphasizes oil-driven inflation risk more than labor-market weakness. The key tension is simple: U.S. inflation supports USD, while oil supports CAD. Canada’s weak employment data keeps the balance tilted slightly toward USD/CAD support, but not enough to justify chasing resistance without confirmation. Scenario Map Main scenario: USD/CAD remains neutral-to-slightly bullish while price holds above 1.3685 and the rising channel. A 4H close above 1.3717-1.3726, especially after firm U.S. PPI, would confirm continuation toward 1.3747 and 1.3770. Alternative scenario: If U.S. PPI disappoints or oil rallies further, CAD can regain support. A break below 1.3685 would expose 1.3670, followed by the WMA zone near 1.3647-1.3650. Invalidation signal: The bullish structure weakens on a sustained 4H close below 1.3647. That would break the WMA support zone, damage the rising channel structure, and shift the pair from bullish continuation into corrective risk. Trading Takeaways USD/CAD is bullish but stretched. The chart supports upside continuation, but the pair is testing a major resistance zone with cooling momentum and falling implied volatility. Advanced traders should treat 1.3710-1.3720 as a decision area, not a breakout by itself. A confirmed 4H close above 1.3726 is needed for stronger bullish conviction. Without that confirmation, consolidation between 1.3685 and 1.3720 remains the more balanced near-term read.