热情表象下,习近平与特朗普之间的对抗与博弈

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LUKE BROADWATER2026年5月14日特朗普总统与中国国家主席习近平去年在韩国釜山举行会晤后。他们定于本周再次会面。 Haiyun Jiang/The New York TimesJust weeks ago, after the U.S. military seized a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, President Trump said he suspected that the Chinese government was attempting to sneak a “gift” past America’s blockade and into the hands of Iran.就在几周前,在美国军方于霍尔木兹海峡扣押一艘船只后,特朗普总统表示,他怀疑中国政府试图绕过美国的封锁,向伊朗偷偷送去一份“礼物”。“I thought I had an understanding with President Xi,” Mr. Trump said in an interview with CNBC, calling himself “surprised.” He added: “But that’s all right. That’s the way war goes, right?”“我以为我和习主席达成了某种默契,”特朗普在接受CNBC采访时说。他自称“感到意外”,补充道:“但没关系。战争就是这样,对吧?”China has rejected Mr. Trump’s accusation. But the incident underscores the uneasy nature of the relationship between Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi as the American president arrives in Beijing for a summit between two of the world’s most powerful men.中国已驳斥了特朗普的指控。但就在这位美国总统抵达北京,参加两位全球最有权势人物的峰会之际,这一事件凸显了特朗普与习近平之间关系的微妙之处。Mr. Trump, who has long wanted to court relationships with the world’s strongmen, has cultivated what he describes as a friendship with Mr. Xi, referring to China’s leader as “a brilliant leader.”长期以来一直希望与世界强人建立关系的特朗普培养了他所描述的与习近平的友谊,称中国领导人为“一位杰出的领导人”。“He’s a wonderful guy,” Mr. Trump said this week before departing for Beijing. “He’s a friend of mine.”“他是个很棒的人,”特朗普本周在启程前往北京前说。“他是我的朋友。”Mr. Xi, in turn, has flattered Mr. Trump with ceremony on a scale rarely afforded foreign leaders, turning a state visit during his first term into a theatrical display of pomp and symbolism. On Wednesday, Mr. Trump was greeted by a military honor guard as well as men and women dressed in blue and white waving Chinese and American flags.而习近平曾以罕见规格的礼仪款待特朗普,将其第一任期内的国事访问变成了一场盛大排场和象征意义的戏剧性展示。周三,特朗普受到了仪仗队以及身着蓝白服装、挥舞中美两国国旗的男女的欢迎。But beneath the public displays of warmth, the two men are at the center of the most consequential geopolitical rivalry of the 21st century. Their relationship is marked just as much by mistrust and confrontation as it is niceties.但在公开的热情表象之下,两人正处于21世纪最重大的地缘政治竞争中心。他们的关系既充满客套,也同样充斥着不信任与对抗。For each public compliment, there is another maneuver in a trade war between the two countries. For each assertion of deep friendship, there is an uneasiness about the other’s military ambitions. For each attempt at flattery, there is an accompanying suspicion.每一次公开的赞美背后,都伴随着两国贸易战中的另一场博弈。每一次深厚友谊的宣示背后,都隐藏着对对方军事野心的不安。每一次奉承的尝试背后,都伴随着怀疑。“Xi Jinping is not somebody who’s very sentimental about personal relationships, even inside his inner circle, never mind with what he sees as the leader of his main geopolitical foe,” said Jonathan A. Czin, the chairman of foreign policy studies at the Brookings Institution. “He purged the most senior leader of the military this winter. If he’s willing to get rid of a guy like that, that he’s known for decades and has a deep relationship with, I think it’s very instructive about how he approaches a guy like Trump.”“习近平不是那种会被个人关系左右的人,即使在他自己的核心圈子里也是如此,更不用说与他视为主要地缘政治对手的领导人了,”布鲁金斯学会外交政策研究主席秦江南(Jonathan A. Czin)说。“他在这个冬天清洗了军方最高领导人。如果一个他认识几十年、关系深厚的人都能除掉,我想这很能说明他会如何对待特朗普这样的人。”2017年,特朗普与习近平在前者的佛罗里达州马阿拉歌庄园首次会面。The relationship between Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi has had its ups and downs since the American president’s first term. There is rarely an interaction without some surprises.自特朗普的第一个任期以来,他与习近平的关系起起伏伏。两人之间的互动很少波澜不惊。The two men first met at Mr. Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in 2017. Mr. Trump greeted Mr. Xi with a military honor guard and a lavish dinner.两人于2017年在特朗普的马阿拉歌庄园首次会面。特朗普以仪仗队和盛大晚宴迎接习近平。While they were enjoying what Mr. Trump called “the most beautiful piece of chocolate cake that you’ve ever seen,” the American president informed Mr. Xi that the United States had launched missile strikes against Syria in response to President Bashar al-Assad’s chemical weapons attack in the Syrian civil war.就在他们享用特朗普所说的“你见过的最漂亮的一块巧克力蛋糕”时,这位美国总统告知习近平,美国已对叙利亚发动导弹袭击,以回应巴沙尔·阿萨德总统在叙利亚内战中使用化学武器。If the announcement was meant to catch the Chinese president off guard, Mr. Xi appeared unfazed.如果这一宣布意在让中国领导人措手不及,习近平似乎并未感到不安。“We are so used to thinking of Trump as being very idiosyncratic, very different from his predecessors,” Mr. Czin said. “But from a Chinese perspective, this looks very similar to President Obama’s intervention in Libya and President Bush’s intervention in Iraq. This is just the United States doing in a more intense way what it’s done for most of the century.”“我们已经习惯于认为特朗普非常特立独行,与他的前任大不相同,”秦江南说。“但从中国视角来看,这与奥巴马总统干预利比亚、布什总统干预伊拉克非常相似。这只是美国以更激烈的方式做了一个世纪以来一直在做的事。”Mr. Trump emerged from that meeting claiming they had developed “great chemistry.”特朗普在那次会晤后声称,他们建立了“极好的默契”。Months later, Mr. Xi returned the favor with an extravagant state visit to Beijing unlike any reception afforded to Mr. Trump’s recent predecessors.几个月后,习近平以同样盛大的仪礼招待访问北京的特朗普,其规格是以往几届美国总统未曾享有的。During what Chinese officials called a “state visit-plus,” Mr. Trump toured the Forbidden City in a highly symbolic gesture emphasizing imperial grandeur and historic continuity. The two men strolled through ancient palace courtyards as television cameras followed closely behind.在中国官员称为“国事访问+”的行程中,特朗普参观了故宫,这一极具象征意义的举动强调了帝王气概与历史延续性。两人漫步在古老的宫廷庭院中,电视摄像机紧随其后。Chinese officials arranged a private opera performance and seated Mr. Trump beside Mr. Xi in a setting meant to project intimacy and prestige.中国官员安排了一场私人戏曲表演,并让特朗普与习近平并肩而坐,营造出亲密与尊贵的氛围。During that trip, Mr. Trump said he gave China “great credit” for taking advantage of the United States on trade.在那次访问中,特朗普表示,他对中国在贸易上利用美国的做法“很欣赏”。“I don’t blame China,” he said. “After all, who can blame a country for being able to take advantage of another country for the benefit of its citizens?”“我不怪中国,”他说。“毕竟,谁能怪一个国家为了本国公民的利益而占另一个国家的便宜呢?”Rush Doshi, a researcher at Georgetown University and at the Council on Foreign Relations, said it was important for both leaders to exit any negotiations in a manner that saved face for themselves and their countries. That is why Mr. Trump has often praised China’s actions, even if they are hostile to America’s interests.乔治城大学和外交关系委员会研究员杜如松(Rush Doshi)表示,双方领导人都希望以能为自身和国家保全面子的方式结束任何谈判。这就是为什么特朗普经常赞扬中国的行动,即使这些行动有损美国利益。“His general impulse is to say, in effect: ‘I am a worldly pragmatist who understands that what they’ve done isn’t personal against me. It’s just business,’” Mr. Doshi said. “That’s the way in which he downplays these significantly escalatory acts.”“他的心态总的来说就是,‘我是个老练的实用主义者,我明白他们所做的事并非针对我个人。这只是生意,’”杜如松说。“这就是他淡化这些重大升级行为的方式。”2017年访华期间,特朗普与第一夫人梅拉尼娅及习近平与夫人彭丽媛一同在北京观看戏曲演出。习近平为特朗普安排了极为奢华的招待仪式,其规格是以往几届美国总统未曾享有的。Mr. Trump arrived in China on Wednesday, and he departs Friday. Anna Kelly, a White House spokeswoman, said that there would again be moments of great symbolism on the trip but that Mr. Trump would also return with economic deals beneficial to Americans.特朗普于周三抵达中国,将于周五离开。白宫发言人安娜·凯利表示,此行将再次出现重要的象征性时刻,但特朗普也将带回有利于美国人的经济协议。“This will be a visit of tremendous symbolic significance,” Ms. Kelly said. “But of course, President Trump never travels for symbolism alone. The American people can expect the president to deliver more good deals on behalf of our country. These agreements will further rebalance trade with China while putting American workers, farmers and families first and safeguarding U.S. economic strength in national security.”“这将是一次具有巨大象征意义的重要访问,”凯利说。“但当然,特朗普总统从来不会只为象征意义而出行。美国人民可以期待总统为我们的国家带来更多好协议。这些协议将进一步重塑与中国的贸易,同时把美国工人、农民和家庭放在首位,并维护美国在国家安全方面的经济实力。”The relationship between the two men has grown more tense. Mr. Trump’s trip was initially delayed because of his war against Iran, a major supplier of oil to China.两人之间的关系已变得更加紧张。特朗普的此次访问最初因其对伊朗的战争而被推迟——伊朗是中国主要的石油供应国。Since his first meeting with Mr. Trump, Mr. Xi has expressed more warmth for President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, calling him my “best and bosom friend,” and recently the Chinese president criticized Mr. Trump, though not by name, for flouting international law and returning “to the law of the jungle.”自从与特朗普的首次会面后,习近平与俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·V·普京走得更近了,称其为我“最好的知心朋友”,而就在最近,这位中国领导人还曾间接批评特朗普无视国际法并回归“丛林法则”。And Mr. Trump’s return to office brought an intensely confrontational economic agenda toward China, reviving tensions between the world’s two largest economies.特朗普重返白宫后则对中国采取了强烈对抗的经济议程,重燃了全球两大经济体之间的紧张关系。Within months of taking office, Mr. Trump imposed sweeping new tariffs on imports from a wide range of countries, with China receiving some of the harshest. Despite the aggressive talk, both governments eventually moved toward negotiations.在上任后几个月内,特朗普就对来自广泛国家的进口商品征收了大规模新关税,中国受到的冲击最为严重。尽管言辞强硬,但两国政府最终还是转向了谈判。Tariffs are expected to be a major topic on the agenda this week.关税预计将成为本周议程上的主要议题。Perhaps at no point were the personal tensions on greater display than last year when Mr. Xi signaled that he was shoring up his own alliances against American interests when he hosted the leaders of Russia and North Korea for a military parade.去年,当习近平通过接待俄罗斯和朝鲜领导人参加阅兵来强化对抗美国利益的联盟时,这种个人关系的紧张或许达到了最公开的展示。Mr. Trump addressed Mr. Xi in a comment about it on social media, which read in part, “Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un, as you conspire against The United States of America.”特朗普在社交媒体上就此事发表评论,部分内容为:“请向与你一起密谋对抗美利坚合众国的弗拉基米尔·普京和金正恩转达我最诚挚的问候。”In remarks in the Oval Office, Mr. Trump took pains to brush off the striking show of solidarity among America’s adversaries. He praised the parade as “beautiful,” and “very, very impressive.”在椭圆形办公室的讲话中,特朗普努力淡化美国对手间这一引人注目的团结展示。他称赞阅兵“美丽”且“非常、非常令人印象深刻”。“I understood the reason they were doing it, and they were hoping I was watching, and I was watching,” Mr. Trump told reporters. “My relationship with all of them is very good.”“我理解他们这么做的原因,他们希望我看,我也看了,”特朗普告诉记者。“我和他们的关系都很好。”Melanie Hart, the senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub, called Mr. Trump’s reaction to the gathering “the most public expression of FOMO” — fear of missing out — “we’ve ever seen from a U.S. president.”大西洋理事会全球中国中心高级主任韩美妮(Melanie Hart)称,特朗普对此次聚会的反应是“我们见过的美国总统最公开的‘FOMO’表现”。(FOMO意为“害怕错过”。)“Trump seems to think he can charm Xi Jinping,” she said. “But Xi is not a relationship guy. Xi really looks at the United States as China’s main rival at a systemic level. Trump really wants Xi Jinping to like him, and Xi couldn’t care less.”“特朗普似乎认为他可以吸引习近平,”她说。“但习不是一个注重关系的人。习近平真正将美国视为中国在系统层面上的主要竞争对手。特朗普非常希望习近平喜欢他,而习根本不在乎。”Even so, Mr. Trump expects to be greeted in Beijing with great fanfare, and hopes to return the favor for Mr. Xi when the Chinese leader visits Washington later this year.即便如此,特朗普仍期待在北京受到盛大欢迎,并希望在中国领导人今年晚些时候访问华盛顿时予以回礼。The American president said he hopes to show off a renovated Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool to Mr. Xi. But he expressed disappointment that his signature project, a ballroom attached to the White House, will not be built in time for a lavish welcome.这位美国总统表示,他希望向习近平展示翻新后的林肯纪念堂倒影池。但他对自己的标志性项目——白宫的宴会厅——无法及时完工以迎接盛大欢迎感到失望。“I only wish we had the ballroom finished,” Mr. Trump said before departing for China.“我只希望我们能把宴会厅建好,”特朗普在启程前往中国前说。Luke Broadwater为《纽约时报》报道白宫新闻。翻译:纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。获取更多RSS:https://feedx.net https://feedx.site