Gold Waits for Fed and Inflation SignalsGoldOANDA:XAUUSDDomicChainaHello everyone, Gold is currently moving in a clear sideways phase after breaking out of its previous descending channel. Price is now fluctuating around the 4,680 – 4,700 USD zone and continues to react near EMA34 and EMA89, showing that the market is temporarily balanced between buyers and sellers. What I’m watching closely is that although gold has recovered strongly from the 4,500 USD area, buyers still have not shown enough strength to fully break above the 4,750 – 4,800 USD resistance zone. Each time price tests this area, selling pressure appears quite quickly, suggesting that profit-taking remains significant. From a news perspective, the biggest pressure on gold right now comes from stronger-than-expected US inflation data. According to Kitco News, both April CPI and PPI came in hotter than expected, leading markets to almost price out the possibility of a Fed rate cut this year. US CPI rose to 3.8% — the highest level since May 2023, while PPI recorded its strongest monthly increase since early 2022 due to rising energy prices and trade costs linked to tensions around Iran. This has kept US Treasury yields and the US dollar elevated, creating direct pressure on gold. Although gold is often viewed as an inflation hedge, a high-interest-rate environment increases the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset like gold compared with US Treasury bonds. In addition, oil prices remaining above 100 USD per barrel continue to raise concerns that inflation may stay sticky for longer than expected. Another factor weighing on physical demand is India’s decision to raise import duties on gold and silver from 6% to 15%, which could weaken official demand in the coming period. However, the positive point is that many major institutions still maintain a long-term bullish outlook on gold. Goldman Sachs currently targets 5,400 USD per ounce by year-end, while JPMorgan expects gold could reach 6,300 USD, supported by strong central bank buying and the global trend of reducing reliance on the US dollar in foreign exchange reserves. What I like about the current chart is that the previous bearish structure has already been broken, with price breaking out of the downtrend channel that had extended since late April. EMA34 is also gradually curving upward and narrowing the gap with EMA89 — a sign that selling pressure is no longer as strong as before. At this stage, gold is still trading more like an interest-rate-sensitive asset than a pure geopolitical safe haven. Therefore, until US inflation begins to cool or the Fed sends a softer signal, XAUUSD is likely to continue moving with strong volatility inside the current sideways range before a larger trend appears.