袁莉2026年5月13日中国天津港。面对特朗普总统的关税，中国在全球舞台上变得愈发坚定自信。 The New York TimesWhen President Trump visited China in late 2017, Xi Jinping welcomed him with a grand display of Chinese history and culture: a four-hour private tour of the Forbidden City culminating in a performance by the Peking Opera.2017年末特朗普总统访华时，习近平以一场盛大的中国历史与文化展示欢迎他：四小时的故宫私人参观，最后以一场京剧表演收尾。Eight years, a pandemic and two trade wars later, Mr. Trump is returning to Beijing, where the theme of future dominance, not ancient majesty, has filled domestic and international headlines with articles about dancing robots, drone swarms and the quiet hum of electric vehicles.八年之后，经过一场疫情和两场贸易战，特朗普再次回到北京。此时，主导新闻头条的已不再是古代的辉煌，而是关于未来主导权的主题——跳舞的机器人、无人机蜂群，以及电动汽车安静的嗡鸣声。China increasingly casts itself not as a fading civilization trying to catch up to the West but as a superpower poised to surpass it. Chinese nationalists and state-linked commentators say they have Mr. Trump to thank. America under his rule, they say, validates Mr. Xi’s worldview centered on “the rise of the East and decline of the West.”中国越来越不把自己描绘成一个试图追赶西方的衰落文明，而是定位为一个即将超越西方的超级大国。中国民族主义者和有官方背景的评论人士表示，他们要感谢特朗普。他们认为，在特朗普治下的美国印证了习近平以“东升西降”为核心的世界观。For decades, many Chinese viewed the United States with a mix of admiration, envy and resentment. America represented wealth, technological sophistication and institutional confidence. Even critics of Washington who reviled the American system often assumed that it worked.几十年来，许多中国人以一种钦佩、羡慕和怨恨交织的心情看待美国。美国代表着富有、技术先进和制度自信。即使是批评华盛顿的人，在痛斥美国体制的同时，也往往认为它行之有效。Mr. Trump’s ascent and his volatile second term shattered that image.特朗普的崛起及其动荡的第二任期打破了这一形象。In January, a nationalistic Beijing think tank affiliated with Renmin University published a triumphant report about Mr. Trump’s first year back in office. The report argued that his tariffs, attacks on allies, anti-immigration policies and assaults on the American political establishment had inadvertently strengthened China while weakening the United States. Its title: “Thank Trump.”今年1月，一家隶属于中国人民大学的民族主义智库就特朗普再度执政的第一年发表了一份得意洋洋的报告。报告认为，他的关税、对盟友的攻击、反移民政策以及对美国政治建制的冲击在无意中增强了中国，同时削弱了美国。报告标题是：《“感谢”特朗普》。The report called Mr. Trump an “accelerator of American political decay,” with the United States sliding toward polarization, institutional dysfunction and even “Latin American-style instability.” His hostility toward China, the authors argued, was a “reverse booster” that unified the country and helped bring about its strategic self-reliance.报告称特朗普是“美国政治衰朽的加速器”，美国正滑向两极化、制度失能，甚至“‘拉美化’动荡”。作者认为，他对中国的敌意反而成了“反向助推器”，让中国团结起来，并推动了战略自立。“At this turning point in history,” the authors wrote, “what we hear is the heavy and haunting toll of an empire’s evening bell.”“在历史的转弯处，”作者写道，“我们看到的是帝国晚钟沉闷而凄厉的回响。”Such language, once confined largely to nationalist corners of the Chinese internet, has increasingly entered mainstream political discourse.这种语言曾经主要局限于中国互联网的民族主义角落，如今已越来越多地进入主流政治话语。Evidence of this shift is measurable: The use of terms related to “American decline” in official Chinese sources nearly doubled in 2025, according to a study by two Brookings Institution researchers.这一转变有可衡量的证据：根据布鲁金斯学会两位研究人员的报告，2025年中国官方来源中与“美国衰落”相关的表述使用频率几乎翻了一倍。The narrative of American decline did not begin with Mr. Trump. For years, Chinese state media and nationalist pundits have highlighted mass shootings, homelessness, political polarization and economic inequality in the United States as evidence of the failures of Western democracy. More recently, official outlets embraced the viral phrase “kill line,” borrowed from video game culture, to describe what they portrayed as the irreversible downward spiral facing America’s working poor. It’s a familiar tactic of the Communist Party to distract the Chinese public from the country’s own issues.美国衰落的叙事并非始于特朗普。多年来，中国官方媒体和民族主义评论人士一直突出美国的大规模枪击事件、无家可归、政治极化以及经济不平等，以此作为西方民主失败的证据。最近，官方媒体又采纳了从电子游戏文化中借来的流行词“斩杀线”，来描述他们所称的美国底层民众不可逆转的向下坠落。这是中共惯用的转移视线战术，旨在转移公众对中国自身问题的注意力。But Mr. Trump’s return to office and his administration’s erratic decision-making in both domestic and foreign policy have supplied the propaganda machine with plentiful fresh material. Images of immigration raids, the Minneapolis shootings and bitter political infighting circulate widely on Chinese social media alongside triumphant commentary about American dysfunction. What once sounded to many educated Chinese like exaggerated propaganda increasingly feels, to some, observational.但特朗普重返白宫及其政府在国内和外交政策上反复无常的决策为宣传机器提供了大量新鲜素材。移民突击搜查、明尼阿波利斯枪击事件以及激烈的政治内斗的画面在中国社交媒体上广泛传播，伴之以对美国机能失调兴高采烈的评论。对许多受过教育的中国人来说，曾经听起来像夸张宣传的内容，现在越来越像是观察到的现实。A 31-year-old education consultant in northern China who advises families on overseas study told me that parents who had once aspired to Ivy League degrees for their children now saw America as “too chaotic.” A decade ago, more than 80 percent of his students considered the United States for study abroad, said the consultant, who asked me to use only his family name, Wang, for fear of government retribution. Now, he estimated, the figure has fallen to 45 percent.中国北方一位31岁的教育咨询顾问（他为家庭提供留学建议）告诉我，那些曾经渴望孩子就读常春藤盟校的父母现在认为美国“太乱了”。由于担心遭到政府报复，这位顾问要求仅使用他的姓氏“王”。他说，十年前他的学生中超过80%考虑去美国留学，现在他估计这一比例已降至45%。Mr. Wang described watching footage of the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol and finding himself thinking of the Red Guards that Mao Zedong dispatched to tear apart China’s institutions during the Cultural Revolution. That feeling returned more insistently with the immigration raids and the targeting of perceived enemies during Mr. Trump’s second term.王先生说，在观看2021年1月6日美国国会大厦遇袭的画面时，他想到了“文革”期间毛泽东派去摧毁中国体制的红卫兵。这种感觉在特朗普第二任期的移民突击搜查和针对“敌人”的打击中变得愈发强烈。“The America that represented wealth, freedom and institutional confidence feels like it belonged to a different era,” Mr. Wang said.“那个代表着财富、自由和制度自信的美国似乎属于另一个时代，”王先生说。北达科他州一农场正在装运大豆。上海外国语大学一位教授表示，随着中期选举临近，特朗普需要一个可见的胜利，比如中国采购美国大豆。Among China’s foreign policy analysts, the conversation has turned to what Beijing can gain from the bilateral relationship, which has become more transactional under Mr. Trump than under President Joseph R. Biden Jr.在中国的外交政策分析人士中，讨论的焦点已转向北京能从双边关系中获得什么。在特朗普治下，这种关系比在拜登总统时期更具交易性。“Only China can save Trump,” said Huang Jing, a professor at Shanghai International Studies University, during a media event that was livestreamed in late 2025. With the U.S. midterm elections approaching, he argued, Mr. Trump needed visible wins such as Chinese purchases of American soybeans, corn and natural gas that could play well in swing states.“只有中国才能救特朗普，”上海外国语大学教授黄靖在2025年末一场直播的媒体活动上说。他认为，随着美国中期选举临近，特朗普需要看得见的胜利，比如中国购买美国大豆、玉米和天然气，这些能在摇摆州产生良好效果。“Since Trump,” Mr. Huang said at the event, “the United States has become increasingly prone to compromise.”黄靖在活动中表示：“从特朗普开始，美国越来越易妥协，。”Wu Xinbo, a leading American studies scholar at Fudan University, offered a similar assessment. If Republicans lose control of the House this fall, he said at the same event, Mr. Trump is likely to pivot toward his foreign policy legacy, creating space for a larger accommodation with Beijing.复旦大学美国研究资深学者吴心伯也给出了类似评估。他说，如果共和党今年秋天失去众议院控制权，特朗普很可能转向打造自己的外交政策遗产，从而为与北京达成更大和解创造空间。China, he said, “should make good use of this opportunity.”他说，中国“应该好好利用这个机会”。The war in Iran has reinforced the view that China has the upper hand with Mr. Trump. At a conference in late April, Mr. Wu argued that the war reduced Washington’s leverage against China while increasing Beijing’s by consuming American military and diplomatic attention in the Middle East.伊朗战争进一步强化了中国在特朗普面前占据上风的观点。在4月底的一场会议上，吴心伯认为，这场战争消耗了美国在中东的军事和外交注意力，从而削弱了华盛顿对中国的杠杆，同时增加了北京的杠杆。The logic helps explain why China’s official language regarding Mr. Trump has often been less hostile than it was regarding Mr. Biden. According to a project by the Tracking People’s Daily newsletter, which used artificial intelligence to analyze nearly 7,000 Chinese official statements since 2021, Mr. Biden was presented as a more systemic threat — so serious that Mr. Xi accused Washington of “encirclement and suppression,” unusually confrontational language for a Chinese leader.这种逻辑有助于解释为什么中国官方对特朗普的措辞往往比对拜登温和。根据“Tracking People’s Daily”通讯项目使用人工智能对2021年以来近7000份中国官方声明的分析，拜登被呈现为更具系统性的威胁——严重到习近平指责华盛顿“遏制、围堵”，这是中国领导人极不寻常的对抗性语言。By contrast, the study noted, “Trump’s transactionalism is something Beijing understands and can work with.”相比之下，该研究指出，“特朗普的交易主义是北京能够理解并与之打交道的”。Yet belief in U.S. decline has not translated into aggressive Chinese foreign policy, at least not the kind of overt geopolitical gamble that Russia made before invading Ukraine.然而，对美国衰落的信念并未转化为激进的中国外交政策，至少不是俄罗斯入侵乌克兰前那种公开的地缘政治冒险。China has become more assertive, pressuring U.S. allies, expanding military activity around Taiwan and restricting rare-earth exports in response to Mr. Trump’s tariffs. But even as Beijing advances the idea of the decline of American power, it appears wary of directly confronting what many Chinese analysts describe as a still dangerous superpower.中国变得更加强势，对美国盟友施压、扩大在台湾周边的军事活动，并在回应特朗普关税时限制稀土出口。但即便北京推进美国实力衰落的叙事，它似乎仍谨慎避免直接对抗许多中国分析人士眼中仍然危险的超级大国。Two factors play into this circumspection. First, many Chinese strategists believe Beijing can do better by sitting back while the Trump administration fumbles. Second, an unstable and distracted United States may also be a more unpredictable one.有两个因素导致了这种谨慎。第一，许多中国战略家认为，让特朗普政府自己犯错，而北京坐收渔利，会更好。第二，一个不稳定且分心的美国，也可能是一个更难以预测的美国。Beijing’s export-dependent economy needs a stable international order to function. An erratic United States threatens that stability in ways a confident, predictable America never did, Zongyuan Zoe Liu, an economist at the Council for Foreign Relations, told me.外交关系委员会经济学家刘宗媛告诉我，北京以出口为主的经济需要一个稳定的国际秩序才能运转。一个反复无常的美国以一种自信、可预测的美国从未有过的方式威胁着这种稳定。Mr. Xi “is getting the United States he always wanted,” she said, “and the America he most feared at the same time.”习近平“正在得到他一直想要的美国”，她说，“同时也是他最害怕的那个美国。”袁莉为《纽约时报》撰写“新新世界”专栏，专注中国及亚洲科技、商业和政治交叉议题。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。