FUNDAMENTALOVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar regained some ground this week as US and Iran rejected therespective war-ending proposals and US inflation data came out higher thanexpected. Overall, the market remains rangebound as traders continue to waitfor new developments before picking a direction. Looking ahead, the Fed is slowly abandoning the easing bias with more andmore policymakers talking about the need of keeping all options on the tableand some explicitly bringing up rate hikes. The reopening of the Strait could weigh on the greenback in the short-termas oil prices will likely fall quickly and rate cut bets will increase oneasing inflation worries.After that though, the focus will quickly turn back to the Fed and theeconomic data. With the end of the war, the increase in economic activity couldkeep inflation higher for longer and eventually even require rate hikes tobring it sustainably back to the 2% target that the Fed has been missing since2021.There’s also another scenario where the Strait remains closed for longerand oil prices stay elevated, with the risk that the Fed turns hawkish anywayand gives the greenback a strong boost given the bearish positioning on thedollar. INR:On the INR side, thelack of any US-Iran breakthrough and a rebound in oil prices continued to weighon the Indian Rupee which dropped to a new record low against the dollar thisweek. In the short-term,the Rupee has been closely correlated with oil prices, so positive developmentson the US-Iran front should keep giving the INR a boost. Conversely, extendedstalemate or further escalations will likely keep weighing on the currency andpush it into new record lows. In the bigpicture, the Indian Rupee remains on a bearish structural trend against the US dollar,so the dip-buyers will likely look for opportunities around strong technicallevels to keep pushing into new highs. USDINR TECHNICALANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the dailychart, we can see that USDINR reached a new record high this week as the Rupee slide extendedfurther. The price is now consolidating around the all-time highs, so there’snot much we can see here. We need to zoom in to see some more details.USDINR TECHNICALANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hourchart, we can see more clearly the consolidation around the all-time highs. Froma risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to rewardsetup around the trendline to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on theother hand, will need a break below the trendline and the upper bound of thechannel to open the door for new lows.USDINR TECHNICALANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hourchart, we have a tight range between the 95.65 support and 96.20 resistance. Thebuyers will continue to step in around the support to keep pushing into newhighs and increase the bullish bets on a break above the resistance. Thesellers, on the other hand, will need a break below the support to extend thepullback into the trendline around the 94.80 level.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we get the US Retail Sales report and the latest US Jobless Claimsfigures. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.