FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar regained some ground this week as US and Iran rejected therespective war-ending proposals and US inflation data came out higher thanexpected. Overall, the market remains rangebound as traders continue to waitfor new developments before picking a direction. Looking ahead, the Fed is slowly abandoning the easing bias with more andmore policymakers talking about the need of keeping all options on the tableand some explicitly bringing up rate hikes. The reopening of the Strait could weigh on the greenback in the short-termas oil prices will likely fall quickly and rate cut bets will increase oneasing inflation worries.After that though, the focus will quickly turn back to the Fed and theeconomic data. With the end of the war, the increase in economic activity couldkeep inflation higher for longer and eventually even require rate hikes tobring it sustainably back to the 2% target that the Fed has been missing since2021.There’s also another scenario where the Strait remains closed for longerand oil prices stay elevated, with the risk that the Fed turns hawkish anyway andgives the greenback a strong boost given the bearish positioning on the dollar.JPY:On the JPY side, nothinghas changed fundamentally. Japanese officials have been intervening in the FX market,but yen sellers have been quick in fading the moves due to the persistentlynegative macro backdrop. The BoJ recently leftinterest rates unchanged at 0.75% as widely expected but the highlight of thedecision weren’t the three dissenters voting for a rate hike, but Governor Uedaadopting a less hawkish stance. In fact, he noted that theywant to take a little bit more time in gauging how the Middle East situationwould affect Japan’s economy and acknowledged that underlying inflation iscurrently a bit below the 2% target.He added that they expectunderlying inflation to be around 2% from second half of 2026 but admitted thathe doesn’t know how many months it would take to gauge timing of their nextrate hike. This is going to keep weighing on the Japanese yen despite the interventions.All in all, the bias for the Japanese Yen remains bearish. USDJPY TECHNICALANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we cansee that USDJPY is now trading at the key158.00 resistance zone. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in witha defined risk above the resistance to position for a drop back into the majortrendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breakinghigher to pile in for a rally into the 162.00 handle next.USDJPY TECHNICALANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, wehave an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. The buyers will likelycontinue to lean on the trendline to keep pushing into new highs, while thesellers will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in for a drop intothe major trendline. USDJPY TECHNICALANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’snot much we can add as the buyers will look for a break above the resistance oranother bounce around the trendline to keep pushing into new highs, while thesellers will need a break below the trendline to pile in for a pullback intothe 156.50 support. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we get the US Retail Sales report and the latest US Jobless Claimsfigures. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.