中国寻求AI技术自主,削弱华盛顿制衡北京筹码

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MEAGHAN TOBIN2026年5月13日DeepSeek首次宣布,其新模型已针对中国科技巨头华为生产的芯片进行了优化。 Kelsey McClellan for The New York TimesWhen the Chinese start-up DeepSeek released its latest artificial intelligence model last month, it edged Beijing closer to a future that it has spent years trying to build.上个月,中国初创公司DeepSeek发布其最新人工智能模型时,它让北京距离一个多年来一直努力构建的未来又近了一步。In a small but meaningful break from American technology, DeepSeek said for the first time that its new model had been optimized to run on chips made by the Chinese tech giant Huawei. This was a milestone in China’s long-running effort to develop advanced technologies at home and reduce its reliance on Western innovation.在与美国技术的一次虽小但意义深远的切割中,DeepSeek首次宣布,其新模型已针对中国科技巨头华为生产的芯片进行了优化。这是中国长期推动先进技术国产化、减少对西方创新依赖的重要里程碑。While most of the world’s leading A.I. systems still rely on semiconductors from the U.S. chip-making giant Nvidia, Chinese A.I. firms are increasingly turning to homegrown alternatives.尽管全球大多数领先的人工智能系统仍然依赖美国芯片巨头英伟达的半导体,但中国的人工智能企业正越来越多地转向国产替代方案。The timing of DeepSeek’s announcement — before this week’s scheduled summit between President Trump and Xi Jinping, China’s leader — gives Beijing fresh confidence entering trade talks that U.S. export controls on Nvidia chips have not derailed China’s A.I. development.DeepSeek宣布这一消息的时间点——恰好在本周特朗普总统与中国领导人习近平计划举行峰会之前——也让北京在贸易谈判前增添了新的信心,美国对英伟达芯片的出口管制并未阻断中国人工智能的发展进程。Any meaningful shift by China away from American A.I. technology could limit the impact of U.S. export controls and deprive Washington of a critical source of leverage over Beijing. That prospect gained urgency since DeepSeek’s A.I. technology rattled the U.S. tech industry and turned the company into a potent symbol of China’s drive for technological self-sufficiency.中国若能在实质意义上减少对美国人工智能技术的依赖,不仅可能削弱美国出口管制的效力,还将令华盛顿失去一张制衡北京的关键筹码。自DeepSeek的人工智能技术令美国科技业为之震动、并成为中国追求科技自给自足象征之后,这种前景变得更加紧迫。Before last year’s meeting between the two leaders, Mr. Trump said he planned to discuss Nvidia’s most powerful A.I. chips with Mr. Xi, fueling speculation that the United States might ease restrictions on the technology.在去年两国领导人会晤之前,特朗普曾表示,他计划与习近平讨论英伟达最强大的人工智能芯片,这引发了外界猜测:美国可能会放松对相关技术的限制。But after years of Washington’s preventing Chinese companies from buying certain advanced technology products, firms like DeepSeek and Moonshot AI are starting to design their A.I. systems around the constraints rather than waiting for them to disappear. That includes exploring how their models can run on a broader range of processors beyond Nvidia’s.但在华盛顿多年来阻止中国企业购买某些先进技术产品之后,DeepSeek、月之暗面等公司已开始围绕这些限制来重新设计人工智能系统,而非坐等限制解除。这包括探索如何让模型在英伟达之外更多种类的处理器上运行。“U.S. export controls are not freezing China’s A.I. development,” said Wei Sun, a principal A.I. analyst at Counterpoint Research in Beijing. “They are forcing China to build an alternative stack.”“美国的出口管制并没有冻结中国的人工智能发展,”北京Counterpoint Research的人工智能首席分析师孙薇表示。“它们正在迫使中国建立一套替代性的技术栈。”在DeepSeek发布最新模型时,华为表示,双方实现了“芯模技术紧密协同”。DeepSeek has said its latest model can use Huawei chips for inference, the process that allows an A.I. system to respond more quickly and accurately to users. Inference generally requires less computing power than training, the demanding process of teaching a model how to function. DeepSeek still relied on Nvidia chips to train its system, according to two people in the semiconductor industry who were not authorized to comment publicly on the matter.DeepSeek表示,其最新模型可以使用华为芯片进行推理,即让人工智能系统能够更快速、更准确地回应用户的过程。相比训练——即教会模型如何运作这一高强度计算过程——推理通常需要更少的算力。据两位不便公开发表意见的半导体业内人士透露,DeepSeek在训练系统时仍然依赖英伟达芯片。It was not immediately clear how DeepSeek gained access to those chips, though Chinese companies can still remotely use Nvidia chips housed in data centers outside China. DeepSeek did not respond to a request for comment.目前尚不清楚DeepSeek是如何获得这些芯片的,不过中国企业仍然可以远程使用部署在中国境外数据中心里的英伟达芯片。DeepSeek未回应置评请求。Huawei has said it plans to release a chip for training this year. But it also said it would take another year after that before its products could match the performance of Nvidia’s current offerings.华为表示,计划在今年推出一款用于训练的芯片。但它同时也表示,其产品要达到英伟达现有产品的性能水平,还需再等一年。The growing split between Chinese and American A.I. infrastructure is a consequence that Jensen Huang, Nvidia’s chief executive, has long warned would result from rigid export controls.中美人工智能基础设施之间日益分裂的局面正是英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋长期以来警告出口管制可能导致的后果。He has said the restrictions have only pushed Chinese companies to accelerate efforts to build domestic alternatives, which could lead to a bifurcated market: Chinese A.I. systems running on Chinese chips while the West sticks with American hardware.他曾表示,这些限制只会促使中国企业加快研发国内替代方案,最终可能导致市场一分为二:中国人工智能系统运行在中国芯片之上,西方则继续使用美国硬件。As the world’s dominant maker of A.I. chips, Nvidia stands to gain from unfettered access to China. But Mr. Huang has argued that the strict restrictions will ultimately hurt the United States by diminishing its influence over China’s A.I. industry.作为全球人工智能芯片的主导制造商,英伟达本可以从不受限制地进入中国市场中获得好处。但黄仁勋认为,严格的限制最终将削弱美国对中国人工智能产业的影响力,从而损害美国自身利益。Two months after his last meeting with Mr. Xi, Mr. Trump granted Nvidia permission to sell the H200, one of its most powerful chips, to China.与习近平上次会面两个月后,特朗普批准英伟达向中国出售H200——其最强大的芯片之一。But since then, those chips have been squeezed between lawmakers in Washington, who are seeking closer oversight of their use in China, and Beijing, which has directed Chinese tech companies to buy domestic chips.但自那以后,这些芯片一直受困于两方面的压力:一方面是华盛顿的立法者,他们要求更严格地监督这些芯片在中国的使用;另一方面是北京,它已指示中国科技公司采购国产芯片。英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋表示,严格的出口管制已促使中国企业加速打造本土替代方案。Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told a Senate Appropriations Committee last month that no H200s had actually gone to China, and Nvidia said in regulatory filings this year that it had yet to generate any revenue from H200 sales there. Ahead of this week’s summit in Beijing, the fate of Nvidia’s chips in China is no clearer than it was at the last meeting between Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi.商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克上月在参议院拨款委员会作证时表示,实际上并无H200芯片运抵中国;英伟达在今年提交的监管文件中也表示,尚未从对华销售H200中产生任何收入。在本周北京峰会前夕,英伟达芯片在中国的命运并不比特朗普与习近平上次会面时更加明朗。Analysts expect that China’s frustration with U.S. export controls will be part of the discussion when the two leaders meet.分析人士预计,中国对美国出口管制的不满情绪将成为两国领导人会谈议题的一部分。“Chip export controls have consistently been an issue China opposes,” said Jiang Tianjiao, an associate professor at Fudan University in Shanghai. But as China’s chip-making abilities improve, officials may not want to interfere with efforts to reduce its dependence on American technologies, he said.“芯片出口管制一直是中国反对的问题,”上海复旦大学副教授江天骄说。但他表示,随着中国芯片制造能力的不断提升,官员们或许并不想干预中国减少对美国技术依赖的努力。While Chinese technology companies have continued to release high-performing A.I. systems despite export controls, China’s push for technological self-sufficiency in chip manufacturing still faces significant hurdles. Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation, or SMIC, the Chinese company making some Huawei chips, has struggled to produce them at scale. The chips it manufactures are more prone to defects and consume more power than those made by foreign rivals.尽管在出口管制下,中国科技公司仍在持续发布高性能的人工智能系统,但中国在芯片制造领域追求技术自给自足的努力仍面临重大障碍。生产部分华为芯片的中芯国际在大规模量产方面一直面临困难,其生产的芯片良品率较低、能耗也高于外国竞争对手。Huawei’s workaround has been to strap together large numbers of these weaker chips to achieve the computing power of more advanced processors — a strategy that depends on SMIC’s being able to manufacture in large volumes. Yet Chinese chipmakers are still expected to produce only a small fraction of the advanced semiconductors made by foreign companies like Nvidia this year.华为的应对办法是将大量性能较弱的芯片捆绑在一起,以达到更先进处理器的算力——这一策略有赖于中芯国际实现大规模量产。然而,中国芯片制造商今年预计生产的先进半导体仍只是英伟达等外国企业产量的极小一部分。Before Washington tightened controls, many of Huawei’s chips were made by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, which produces most of the world’s advanced chips, including Nvidia’s.在华盛顿收紧管制之前,华为的许多芯片由台积电制造。台积电生产全球大部分先进芯片,包括英伟达的芯片。Export controls have constrained China’s ability to make the large volumes of advanced chips needed for A.I., said Dan Kim, chief strategy officer at TechInsights, a Canadian research firm, and a Commerce Department official during the Biden administration. But he added that those same restrictions had also pushed Chinese tech companies to innovate in new ways.加拿大研究机构TechInsights首席战略官、拜登政府时期商务部官员丹·金表示,出口管制限制了中国制造大规模先进人工智能芯片的能力。但他同时也指出,这些限制也推动中国科技公司以新的方式进行创新。Chinese companies are trying to redefine what determines success in the race to build cutting-edge A.I. For years, the industry’s most advanced systems have come from companies that can afford to spend billions of dollars assembling vast numbers of powerful chips.中国企业正试图重新定义人工智能竞赛的成功标准。多年来,行业内最先进的系统,都出自那些能够投入数十亿美元、组建庞大高性能芯片集群的公司。Now, companies like Huawei are betting that success could someday depend less on amassing the most computing power and more on building an integrated ecosystem of chips, A.I. models and applications that is good enough for most real-world uses. By working closely with A.I. model developers like DeepSeek, Huawei can customize its hardware to better support the software running on it.如今,华为等公司押注于另一种可能:未来的成功或许不再主要取决于谁拥有最多的计算能力,而是取决于谁能建立一个足够好、能够满足大多数现实应用需求的芯片、人工智能模型与应用程序的一体化生态系统。通过与DeepSeek这样的人工智能模型开发商紧密合作,华为可以对硬件进行定制化调整,以更好地支持在其上运行的软件。When DeepSeek announced its latest model, Huawei said there had been “close collaboration of chip and model technologies from both parties.”在DeepSeek发布最新模型时,华为表示,双方实现了“芯模技术紧密协同”。In technical papers describing its models, DeepSeek outlined specific ways chip makers could modify their products to improve performance with its systems.在描述其模型的技术论文中,DeepSeek详细阐述了芯片制造商可以如何改进产品,以提升与其系统的适配性能。“DeepSeek is calling out into the void to Huawei and other companies, ‘Please make these changes so we can get better performance out of your chips,’” said Jacob Feldgoise, an analyst at the Center for Security and Emerging Technology at Georgetown University.乔治城大学安全与新兴技术中心分析师雅各布·费尔德戈斯说,“DeepSeek是在向华为和其他公司喊话:‘请做出这些修改,这样我们就能从你们的芯片中获得更好的性能。”Xinyun Wu自台北对本文有报道贡献。Meaghan Tobin是时报科技记者,常驻台北,报道亚洲地区的商业和科技新闻,重点关注中国。翻译:纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。