FUNDAMENTALOVERVIEWThe S&P 500 has been printing record highs almost daily despite the prolongedUS-Iran stalemate and the Strait of Hormuz closure. The rally in April wasjustified by easing US-Iran tensions, the constant push for a diplomaticresolution instead of another full-fledged war and expectations that a dealwould be reached eventually. Now, we are approaching an inflection point… In fact, it wasn’t just the US-Iran de-escalation supporting the stockmarket, but also the Federal Reserve’s easing bias (the only major central bank to keep that). This has led to an easingin financial conditions even without rate cuts. Real interest rates have beenfalling, with the 1-year real rate being close to turning negative. There are two main risks ahead: the restart of US-Iran war and a hawkishFed. We've been getting reports that Trump is now considering a resumption ofthe war more seriously as the ceasefire holds on "life support" aftera "garbage" Iran's peace proposal. Now, this might just be the usualhawkish rhetoric without substance, but it’s still something to keep an eye on.If we do get an official resolution, the reopening of the Strait could givethe stock market another boost in the short-term as oil prices will likely falland rate cut bets will increase. After that though, the focus will quickly turnback to the Fed and the economic data. With the end of the war and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, theincrease in economic activity could keep inflation higher for longer andeventually require rate hikes. There’s also another scenario where the Straitremains closed for longer and oil prices stay elevated, with the risk that theFed turns hawkish anyway. S&P 500TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOnthe daily chart, we can see the S&P 500 continues to extend into new all-time highs almost daily.The only significant support zone we have is the one around the 7,200 level. Ifwe get a pullback into it, we can expect the buyers to step in there with adefined risk below the support to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, onthe other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to extend thepullback into the 7,050 level next.S&P 500 TECHNICALANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOnthe 4 hour chart, we have anupward trendline defining the bullish momentum. The buyers leant on thetrendline yesterday to keep pushing into new all-time highs, and we can expectthem to continue to do so. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see theprice breaking lower to pile in for a drop into the 7,200 support next. S&P 500 TECHNICALANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’snot much we can add as from a risk management perspective, the buyers will havea better risk to reward setup around the trendline to target new highs, whilethe sellers will need a break lower to open the door for new lows. The redlines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have the US PPI report and Trump-Xi meeting. Tomorrow, we get theUS Retail Sales report and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.