In November last year, when President Donald Trump announced that he had accepted an invitation to visit China in April, the meeting’s agenda appeared straightforward enough. Trade tensions between the world’s two biggest economies were spiralling into a full-blown tariff war, while Taiwan was the lingering flashpoint. Delayed by a month from its original schedule, the upcoming summit starting Wednesday now risks being consumed by a more compelling crisis: the war in Iran.While it is unclear where the West Asia conflict will go from here, even as an uneasy ceasefire continues to hold, two things are now evident: a resolution to the Iran war is ostensibly not that easy and China’s role will be crucial in whichever direction this conflict is headed. If Iran has to be brought back to the negotiating table in any constructive form, there seems to be a growing realisation in Washington DC that China is likely to play some kind of a role.SignificanceWhen Beijing officially confirmed the date of the state visit earlier this week, it marked the first visit to China from a sitting American president since Trump’s 2017 visit during his last term. This summit would be Trump’s seventh in-person meeting with President Xi Jinping.Trump is taking a big business delegation of over a dozen American CEOs with him, with Apple’s Tim Cook, Boeing chief Kelly Ortberg and Tesla’s Elon Musk part of his business entourage. The one conspicuous absence was Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, who did not figure on an initial list of executives provided by the White House earlier this week. Reuters, however, reported on Wednesday, quoting two sources familiar with the matter, that Huang will join Trump’s delegation to China. Nvidia’s new H200 chips, which have not yet been sold to China, remain a point of contention between the two sides.The choice of the people on the delegation is being read as harbingers of what the administration in Washington DC is pivoting towards in terms of its business priorities with China. “Trump visiting China and meeting with Xi Jinping this week, surrounded by businessmen instead of China hawks, is incredibly helpful in yielding positive outcomes from discussions,” according to Brian Tycangco, analyst at Baltimore-based Stansberry Research.Trump’s visit will include bilateral talks, a state banquet, and a visit to the Temple of Heaven during the course of the visit spanning May 13-15. Later this year, a reciprocal visit to Washington could be on the cards for President Xi, and signal if the relationship is likely to endure.Apart from Iran and the agenda for the business delegation, other key issues could be on the table: the likely direction of global trade and competition in advanced technologies such as AI. An investment deal is being seen as a possible wild card entry to the list. According to experts, Beijing could possibly indicate its willingness to buy Boeing aircraft and American soybeans, alongside announcing a ‘Board of Trade’ and a parallel ‘Board of Investment’ that seem to have been discussed in previous official-level talks. The two sides are also reportedly thinking of establishing an AI safety dialogue.Story continues below this adRising tensions across the Taiwan Strait do seem partly fuelled by the Trump administration’s mixed signals about its Taipei policy. Last December, the US had announced an $11billion arms deal with Taiwan, triggering protests from the Chinese government. Trump, however, has since downplayed the US willingness to defend Taiwan. “He considers it to be a part of China,” Trump said of Xi, adding that “(it’s) up to him, what he’s going to be doing (on Taiwan).”China, which has been keen to position itself as a stabilising power, was conciliatory ahead of the meeting. “President Xi and President Trump — looking back at their past meetings, one message stands out: the steady development of China-US relations brings certainty and stability to the world,” Mao Ning, the Spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China said in a post on X ahead of the meeting.Role in the Iran warIn the Iran conflict, China is now wading in as a mediator, alongside Pakistan. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s visit to Beijing last week seemed to signal the clout China wields in West Asia. “I hope the Chinese tell him what he needs to be told,” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said when questioned on Beijing’s role. “And that is what you are doing in the Strait is causing you to be globally isolated. You’re the bad guy in this.” Beijing does seem to have an upper hand going into this summit than when it was originally announced, according to experts.“China feels confident enough to be able to stand up to Trump on many key issues, including sanctions, technology controls, critical minerals, and Iran. However, the PRC’s eagerness to hold a summit between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping signals that it is much less confident than many observers believe, and the recent Beijing visit by Araghchi shows China positioning itself as having already weighed in with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz,” according to Edgard Kagan, senior adviser and Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Washington DC-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.Story continues below this adChina has a vested interest in seeing the war wound down, even though Beijing has played an outsized role in keeping Iran’s economy afloat in the first two months of this conflict. Prior to the war, China accounted for over 85% of Iran’s oil exports, importing over 1 million barrels per day. Also, Beijing has a vested interest in the blockade in the key waterway being opened up, given that about 60% of the oil headed for China flows through the Strait of Hormuz.According to Rush Doshi, the CV Starr senior fellow for Asia studies and director of the China Strategy Initiative at the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations, with these Iran tensions as a backdrop, three other issues will likely be on the table: the economic agenda, Taiwan and AI. “More meetings will follow this one. The two leaders will likely meet again at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in Shenzhen, China, the Group of Twenty meeting in Miami, and a separate Xi state visit to Washington. Beijing may use these meetings to ‘manage’ the United States, inducing Trump to put off necessary competitive steps for the sake of bilateral stability. That would in turn ratify the current détente on terms favourable to Beijing,” Doshi said in an expert take.From the perspective of India’s policymakers, any bilateral deal that is cut, especially involving concessional tariffs, could be read as the baseline scenario for the revised trade deal that is under negotiation between Washington DC and New Delhi.