Following the 2026 general elections, where the National Resistance Movement (NRM) secured a fresh mandate under the theme Protecting the Gains and Securing a Qualitative Leap into High Middle-Income Status, the horizon for the next five years (2026 to 2031) is defined by a shift from recovery to aggressive industrialization. With a 71.65 per cent victory in the January 15 presidential election, President Yoweri Museveni was handed a seventh elective term by Ugandans, in which to implement his party’s latest manifesto launched in September 2025. Key among what the president is expected to clear off his plate after yesterday’s swearing in, are: 1. The Economic Engine: Reaching for $500 Billion The most ambitious pillar of the NRM’s projection is the expansion of the economy. “Madam Speaker, the budget for financial year 2025/26 will conclude the implementation of the current NRM Manifesto and start the implementation of the Fourth National Development Plan (NDPIV)” Minister of Finance, Planning and Economic Development, Hon. Matia Kasaija, said during his budget speech last year. “For the next 15 years, the successive National Development Plans will implement the Tenfold Economic Growth Strategy. This strategy aims to expand the size of the economy to USD 500 billion by 2040, from USD 61.3 billion estimated this financial year 2024/25.” To get there, the government is doubling down on the ATMS strategy, focusing on Agriculture, Tourism, Mining, and Science/ICT. • The Parish Development Model (PDM): Moving beyond the initial rollout, the next five years will also see the PDM mature. With over 10,500 parish SACCOs already established, the focus shifts from “disbursement” to “productivity monitoring.” The goal is to move the remaining 33 per cent of households still stuck in subsistence farming into the money economy. PDM’s success has seen Shs 1.166 trillion injected directly into local projects, and the president’s PDM tours last year reported great success from many Ugandans’ testimonies. • The Coffee and Dairy Revolution: Building on the success of the cattle corridor, as well as the huge sales registered in the coffee market in the last three years, the NRM government projects a massive increase in value-addition. Instead of exporting raw beans, Uganda aims to be a regional hub for finished coffee products, aiming to capture a larger share of the $400 billion global coffee market. With the establishment of key infrastructure such as the Africa Coffee Park in Ntungamo, Uganda is set to lead the coffee market in these next five years and beyond. 2. Infrastructure: The Arteries of Trade The “Qualitative Leap” relies heavily on reducing the cost of doing business, and the next five years will focus on three critical areas: • The Standard Gauge Railway (SGR): After years of preparation, the 2026 – 2031 term is expected to be the era of the SGR. By linking the Malaba border to Kampala and eventually further on to the DRC and Rwanda, the NRM projects a 40 per cent reduction in transport costs for cargo. • Energy Surplus and Distribution: With generation already at 2,098.6 MW (thanks to the 600MW Karuma hydropower plant and Isimba’s 183.2MW), the focus turns to the “last mile”. The NRM government projects that by 2031, electricity will not just be available, but affordable for manufacturers at a target rate of 5 cents per unit, making Ugandan-made goods globally competitive. • Oil and Gas: 2026 is also the expected start of commercial oil production, at a time when national and global oil prices are volatile, due to the war in Iran. The next five years will see the first significant oil revenues flowing into the Petroleum Fund. The NRM’s projection for these funds is strict; they are earmarked for infrastructure and durable assets, not consumption. 3. The Knowledge Economy and Science One of the most striking projections in the 2026-2031 manifesto is the rise of home-grown science. Already, government has implemented several incentives for the sciences, right from the education sector to innovation. During the NRM 2026 – 2031 Manifesto launch on September 29, 2025, at Speke Resort Munyonyo, President Museveni announced that Ugandan scientists had developed locally produced treatments for cancer, diabetes, and malaria, a welcome development not just for Uganda, but for the continent too, which is heavily reliant on Western pharma. The government projects that through the establishment of more pharmaceutical plants under the National Enterprise Corporation (NEC), Uganda is positioning herself to be a vaccine-manufacturing hub for East Africa, reducing the reliance on imported medicines and creating high- tech jobs for the significant literate population.4. Human Capital: Beyond Literacy to Skill While literacy stands at 74 per cent and life expectancy has hit 68 years – both indicators a great improvement registered during the last 40 years of the NRM government – the next five years are about the quality of life. Education: The improvement of Universal Primary Education (UPE) to a more vocational- heavy curriculum is a core projection. Already, the new, skills-heavy secondary schools curriculum was implemented in the last kisanja; now government aims to equip the youth with technical skills such as welding, coding, and agri-processing, to feed into the 50,000 factories projected to grow across the 23 industrial parks. This is also in line with the Presidential Initiative on Skilling the Girl/Boy Child (PISGBC), a free Ugandan government program launched in 2017 to provide six-month vocational training for underprivileged youth. Through this, more than 4,200 youths across several zonal skilling hubs have gained knowledge and capital for knitting, tailoring, baking, shoemaking, and many more. • Health: The projection includes the completion of specialized hospitals to end medical tourism. By 2031, the NRM envisions a healthcare system where complex surgeries (like organ transplants) are standard in public regional referral hospitals. Already, Mulago national specialized hospital is carrying out some of these complex surgeries that were impossible before, while the environment has also attracted facilities such as the Aga Khan hospital and its specialized expertise. The next five years will see facilities such as Lubowa specialized hospital also become operational, easing Ugandans’ health burdens. 5. Security and Regional Integration None of the economic projections hold without the bedrock of Peace and Security. • The Vanguard of Stability: The UPDF will continue its role in regional pacification. • Internal Safety: To combat the remaining frustrations including petty theft, crime and corruption, the government will expand the digital security network (CCTV) from major highways into smaller municipalities and peri- urban centers. There is also going to be a zero tolerance to corruption. The NRM’s vision for the next five years is one of consolidation. Having built the foundation of an extended good road network, dams, and peace, the party is now betting on industrial value addition and oil revenue to propel Uganda into a new league of nations. As the 2026 – 2031 term unfolds, the success of this projection will depend on how effectively the wanainchi at the parish level transition from onlookers to active participants in the modern money economy.The post The next five years of Museveni-led gov’t hold so much promise appeared first on The Observer.