Donald Trump’s Predecessors on Market VolatilityMarket research firms generally fly under the radar untilthey produce a piece of work that challenges deeply held beliefs. Fundstrat didjust that recently when macro data scientist Alex Wang analysed the causes ofthe five best and worst market days during the last 12 US administrationsdating from Ronald Reagan in 1981.SingaporeSummit: Meet the largest APAC brokers you know (and those you still don't!).The chart considers the impact of a range of factors fromcorporate earnings and foreign events to economic data and interest rateexpectations. Unsurprisingly, government policy was the most common theme – butthe really interesting finding was how it dominated the peaks and troughs ofone president in particular.The research indicates that the current presidency wasresponsible for the five best and five worst market days since Trump tookoffice for the second time. According to the analysis, this was not the case forany other president over the last 45 years.White House spokesman Kush Desai told MarketWatch that sincepresident Trump took office, publicly listed companies have reportedblockbuster earnings reports and clocked multiple all-time high stockvaluations because of his pro-growth agenda of tax cuts, deregulation, energyabundance and fair trade deals.The best market day was 9 April 2025, when the S&P500 rose almost 10% after the suspension of the so-called ‘liberation day’tariffs. However, the unpredictability of Trump’s pronouncements is highlightedby the fact that one of the worst days came just 24 hours after these tariffswere announced.Indeed, all the sharpest stock market falls since January2025 can be linked to tariff announcements, while the gains have been highlyconcentrated.Hardika Singh, an economic strategist at Fundstratsuggests that if the five best market days of the current administration wereexcluded, the S&P 500 would be down 2.7% since he took office instead ofshowing an 18.5% increase.Perhaps disappointingly for those who believe thatgovernment policy should move markets, the research concluded that the lossespretty much cancelled out the gains, suggesting that much of the noise that hasemanated from the White House over the last year-and-a-bit has been just that –noise.Turmoil at the Top as Starmer TeetersThere’s a saying in football that you become a betterplayer when you are out of the team – in other words, when those on the pitch aremessing up the alternative can only be better.To carry on the footballing analogy, the UK Labour partyspent 14 years on the substitutes bench toning down some the messaging that hastraditionally alarmed financial markets in a bid to make it more appealing tothe business community, particularly in financial services.Sadly for its supporters, since winning promotion toDowning Street, Keir Starmer has turned into the AliDiaof British politics. A series of U-turns and poorly considered policies haveshaken confidence in his leadership and he now stands on the brink after poorlocal election results prompted dozens of his members of parliament to call forhis departure.David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nationnotes that yields on UK government bonds have soared, with the key 10-year giltyield pushing up by around 12 basis points before steadying. Investors areselling UK bank stocks with significant drops in the share prices of Barclaysand Lloyds.“Domestic political issues undermine sterling as Starmerdesperately attempts to cling on to his position, for some reason,” saysMorrison in a research note dated 12 May. “Yet despite weakness across theBritish pound and euro against the US dollar, both currencies found somesupport due to the prospect of higher interest rates.”Analysts currently expect the Bank of England to hikerates by around 75 basis points each before the end of the year.MarketWatch data indicates that 10-year gilt yields arecurrently around 5.1%, while 30-year gilt yields have risen to almost 5.8%. TheFinancial Times Stock Exchange 100 Index opened today in the red.One market analyst suggested that the turmoil at the topof the UK government would create more uncertainty in financial markets asanalysts consider the potential impact on fiscal policy of a change of primeminister and perhaps more significantly, chancellor of exchequer.Politics, Populism and PortfoliosEarlier this year, Capital Group published a paper exploringthe global rise of populism (defined as a political style that frames politicsas a struggle between the ‘people’ and the ‘elites’) and its impact onfinancial markets.The authors note that populism reshapes politics and thatits economic consequences are equally profound. They refer to research across60 countries showing that after an initial wave of optimism, economicperformance deteriorates with real GDP per capita growth slowing by roughly onepercentage point per year in the first five years of populists taking power andremaining below trend even after 15 years.🚨 BREAKING:🇺🇸🇨🇳 PRESIDENT TRUMP WILL FLY TO CHINA ON WEDNESDAY, MAY 13SOURCES REPORT THAT TRUMP WILL PUT PRESSURE ON XI JINPING REGARDING THE WAR WITH IRANEXPECT HIGH MARKET VOLATILITY!! pic.twitter.com/iLAw53pFzw— ᴛʀᴀᴄᴇʀ (@DeFiTracer) May 10, 2026That said, the paper also acknowledges that thealternative to populist governance is not necessarily inclusive growth. In manycountries, the pre-populist trajectory was already characterised by incomeinequality, low productivity, demographic headwinds, political fragmentationand difficulty delivering meaningful structural reform. Populism often emergesas a break in this stagnation.While evidence shows populist policies generally worsenlong-term outcomes, they can disrupt entrenched inertia and create space forreform coalitions. This helps explain why some electorates view populism as acorrective to an underperforming status quo despite its economic risks.For investors, these political and economic dynamicstranslate into tangible market risks and opportunities. Historical trends andrecent market behaviour indicate that populist regimes often disrupttraditional market dynamics, amplifying volatility and pressuring assetperformance.While populism typically heightens uncertainty and riskpremia, periods of volatility can also create compelling entry points for long‑term investors, particularlyin markets with strong institutions or credible reform agendas.Moreover, episodes of financial repression (a commonfeature of populist policy frameworks, where interest rates are held belowinflation or directed toward government financing) can temporarily supportequity and realasset valuations by suppressing discount rates andlimiting safer yield alternatives.This article was written by Paul Golden at www.financemagnates.com.