Market Overview — 30.06USD/CNHOANDA:USDCNHTylerWhite_Good morning team Let’s quickly go over the key news for today — the things that could actually impact today’s trading. First of all, we need to pay attention to China. Overnight, they conducted another repo operation and injected more liquidity into the economy. As you can already see this morning, the yuan is strengthening quite sharply. That creates opportunities in the short term. It’s very possible these operations will continue, and the People’s Bank of China will keep supporting both the economy and the national currency. That’s definitely something we can use in trading. We’re expecting something similar from the Bank of Japan today as well. The Japanese yen is sitting at a 40-year low right now — around 162 yen per dollar, if I’m not mistaken. That’s extremely weak. And in situations like this, as you know, the Bank of Japan often steps in with currency intervention. They enter the market, sell dollars and other foreign reserves, and support the yen. I’ve traded these Japanese interventions many times before, and right now we’re watching closely for another one. Meanwhile, the dollar continues showing very strong momentum. At this point, many major analysts are starting to agree that Kevin Warsh may have gone too far with his rhetoric. He’s been signaling rate hikes very aggressively, and the market is now pricing in the possibility of significant tightening. That’s giving strong support to the dollar. But an overly strong dollar creates as many problems as advantages. And the reality is, inflation in the U.S. isn’t so high right now that it clearly demands extremely aggressive action. So the market is still uncertain about what happens next. Will rates actually be raised, or not? That means any data related to inflation, economic activity, or the labor market in the U.S. will now have a huge impact on the dollar — and through the dollar, on nearly every major market. Today, for example, we’re getting job openings data. This is an important release. And for markets right now, weaker data is actually better. Let me explain. If labor market data comes in weaker, the probability of rate hikes goes down. But if the labor market remains very strong — strong job creation, low unemployment, tight labor conditions — that gives the Federal Reserve and Warsh more room to raise rates. Because if the economy is strong and the labor market is strong, then they can justify tighter monetary policy. So today, weaker labor data would actually be bullish for risk assets, because it reduces the probability of aggressive rate hikes. Also on today’s calendar, we have GDP data from Canada. Depending on the numbers, we may get some interesting trading opportunities in the Canadian dollar as well. And one more story that isn’t moving markets right now, but is still very important. According to reports from sources involved in the ongoing negotiations, Iran is pushing for the right to charge fees for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. That would be a huge issue. Under international trade law, natural straits are generally considered open transit routes, and countries are not supposed to charge tolls for passage. Iran is trying to justify this by referencing the Suez Canal and the Panama Canal. But that comparison doesn’t really work. Those are artificial canals built with massive infrastructure, so it makes sense that transit fees exist there. The Strait of Hormuz is a natural waterway. Historically, natural straits have not been subject to transit fees under global trade rules. And this is something Donald Trump simply cannot agree to. No matter how badly he wants to end this conflict, allowing Iran full control over shipping through Hormuz would look like a clear strategic defeat for the U.S. If Iran keeps insisting on this demand, negotiations could drag on significantly longer. And that increases the risk of military escalation. We’re already seeing more frequent exchanges of fire. If Iran continues pushing impossible demands, the probability of military action resuming definitely rises. So this is another key risk factor we need to monitor closely. Overall, there’s a lot happening today across multiple currencies and markets. There are plenty of interesting setups on the table. I’ll share all trading ideas in the private community as usual. Wishing everyone a great trading day.