Improved risk appetite ahead of a fresh US-Iran meeting in Qatar; oil stabilizesMonth-end rebalancing flows and the first batch of US data in focusEuro and yen underperform, partly on negative football results; pivotal German CPI print todayDollar/yen climbs above 162, with investors questioning when Japan will interveneImproved Risk Appetite; All Eyes on the US-Iran Meeting in QatarFollowing a difficult week, Monday proved kinder to risk appetite, as equity bulls regained the upper hand and pushed US equity indices higher. The rally was led by the Nasdaq 100 index, with the Dow Jones and most European indices underperforming.The lighter newsflow from the Middle East helped risk sentiment, as US and Iranian officials are preparing for a meeting – even via proxies – in Doha, Qatar today, to sort out the mechanism to manage the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices appear to have reached a plateau following the aggressive sell-off, maintaining a small ‘conflict’ premium. Notably, today’s discussions could be indicative of the appetite from both sides to honor the agreed 60-day roadmap, or the situation in the Middle East could quickly take a turn for the worse.Meanwhile, Bitcoin remains under pressure and far from the spotlight, maintaining its strong positive correlation with gold. This might seem like an achievement for bitcoin – sometimes dubbed ‘digital gold’ – but both assets are nursing significant losses from their recent all-time highs and appear to lack fresh bullish catalysts.Warsh Commentary and US Data Are Inching CloserConsidering the US equity performance, and given Monday’s light data flow and Fedspeak, nothing fundamentally changed from last week. Hence, these moves could be seen as a bargain hunt or even pre-positioning ahead of this week’s key events. As a reminder, Fed Chair Warsh is scheduled to participate in a panel discussion on Wednesday, along with ECB President Lagarde and BoE Governor Bailey. It will be Warsh’s first public appearance since taking office and, following the hawkish rhetoric at the Fed meeting, a slightly more dovish tone could further support Monday’s risk positive tone.Additionally, the clock is already ticking down to Thursday’s pivotal job data releases, with certain investment houses appearing upbeat, mostly due to the drop in energy prices reducing company expenses and the positive impact from the FIFA World Cup. Another positive set of data could add fuel to the September rate hike expectations.Today, attention will be on the first batch of US data, with the focus being on the May JOLTS job openings and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence index, both released at 14:00 GMT. Meanwhile, it is the final day for month-end, quarter-end and half-year-end rebalancing flows.Dollar Strengthens, Euro and Yen SlipAfter a weak start to the trading week, the dollar is faring better at the start of the European session, with both the yen and euro underperforming. Yesterday’s underperformance from two European football heavyweights - both Germany and the Netherlands were knocked out of the World Cup – appear to have disappointed investors, quasi-matching an OMFIF survey that “central banks plan to boost euro holdings, but 60% hesitate over lower returns”. Importantly, today’s German inflation figures could reveal the possibility of an upside surprise at tomorrow’s eurozone preliminary CPI report, with a strong print today fueling the hawks’ rhetoric at the ECB Forum in Sintra, Portugal. A plethora of ECB members will make their appearance at the Forum, including Executive Board Member, and the leading candidate to replace President Lagarde, Isabel Schnabel.How High Can Dollar/Yen Climb?The last-minute goal from Brazil, defeating Japan by two goals to one, proved the missing piece for dollar/yen to finally climb above 162, reaching the highest level since 1986. At the time of writing, the pair is trading at 162.15, as two verbal interventions from Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara and Finance Minister Katayama fell on deaf ears once again.With the BoJ wanting to hike sooner than December, and PM Takaichi registering her strong disagreement, the onus is entirely on the Japanese government to help the ailing yen. As repeatedly commented, the decision to intervene depends on the trigger, the intended impact, and the prevailing market liquidity. The combination of a dovish Warsh tone and soft US jobs data this week could open the door to intervention on Friday, July 3.