The big rally in Tesla shares today makes me skeptical of the entire market move being based on quarter-end position squaring rather than fundamentals. It's up a whopping 8% to lead megacap tech and is a big contributor to the 2% rise in the Nasdaq.Admittedly, though, I don't understand anything to do with Tesla, particularly its valuation.Here was Elon Musk, a year ago today:“There will be millions of Teslas operating fully autonomously in the second half of next year,” he said after deploying the first robotaxis in Austin. The latest reports have the number of robotaxis in operation at 39. Total.This is far from the latest time that Elon Musk has -- to put it lightly -- exaggerated about what's coming from the company. Incredibly, it started back in 2015 when he said "we're going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years."In 2016, he said "I consider autonomous driving to be a basically solved problem."He has re-upped the prediction so many times with increasing certainty that it has its own Wikipedia entry. Somehow this hasn't resulted in massive fines and lawsuits. Instead, we have Tesla shares up 8% and Elon Musk is the world's richest man.He is a trillionaire yet his companies don't make money. Instead, his greatest success has been to curate a shareholder base that will always believe the next promise. For years it was that his vehicles would take over the streets and he did deliver that to some extent, though only because of huge government subsidies. Since then, his electric cars have been out-competed by China.Self-driving has certainly made strides but the math on it justifying Tesla's valuation is nonsensical. More recently, Tesla has switched to saying it's a robotics company but basically has no working demos. The company trades at 380x earnings with zero Optimus revenue today.The latest prediction: Elon Musk said Tesla will produce “genuinely useful” humanoid robots to start working in its factories next year. Wait, that was from 2024.The demos from late last year were laughable. As for the shares, they have struggled to generate any momentum despite the promises. SpaceX appeared to take some of the shine off as Musk promises 'data centers in space' as its principle product.Here is a chart of TSLA.There is no point in trading it on fundamentals or technicals. It's all on hope, promises and gullibility. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.