Northrop Grumman (NOC) LONG — 12H ALMA Setup (WR 78%)Northrop Grumman Corp.BATS:NOCGoldfinch_song█ SETUP Northrop Grumman · NYSE:NOC · 12H · long only. ALMA Averaging Strategy: ALMA 3 / σ2, SD band 2, min diff 4 bars to add / 3 bars to exit, 25% per bar, up to 4 adds, hard stop −10% from average entry. Strategy Tester (NOC 12H): Win rate 78% · profit factor 3.3 · max drawdown 21% Avg winning trade +10.5% · avg losing trade −7.0% Typical hold ~55 bars on winners · defense prime mean-reversion sleeve ═ █ WHY NOW Tuesday US cash open — 12H ALMA long fired on 30 Jun 13:30 UTC on the same bell as TLN power and ESS exit flow. Fresh 12H entry ~$495.68 — aerospace / defense prime on a pullback into the mid-$490s, not a breakout chase. Mark since entry ~$501.7 (+1.2% open MTM) — first session green after fill. Hard stop zone −10% from fill ~$446.10. Exits follow Pine ALMA flip + min diff or the hard stop — no discretionary TP ladder. ═ █ MACRO Sector: NOC = US defense prime (aerospace, space, autonomous systems) — budget cycle, contract awards, and geopolitical risk premia matter more than a single CPI print. Tape (30 Jun): Defense sleeve refilling on the US open while software and REIT legs rotate out. Primes can hold relative bid when headline flow stays geopolitics-heavy. Calendar: Summer defense budget / NATO spending narratives still in focus — sector beta is macro-sensitive but slower than crypto. Execution is 12H ALMA mean-reversion, not a contract or earnings forecast. ═ █ OUTLOOK Positive factors - 78% WR · PF 3.3 · avg win +10.5% vs avg loss −7.0% — tight DD (21%) for a defense name - Fresh 30 Jun 13:30Z 12H entry inside publish window - EMA — LTF at line: 1H Cur L:2 vs Avg L:6.2 · Dev −0.3% — young above-session (not time-overheated), price at the 1H EMA — early bounce sleeve, not a deep below-EMA discount - ALMA — execution ladder: 4H LONG · L:1 vs LAvg:3.1 · 1D L:1 vs LAvg:3.1 — young above-sessions at the band on the fill bar - SMC — demand at fill: 4H In OB Bull (Normal) ~$495.68 · OB Enter Normal Bull on the 12H entry bar · daily In FVG Bull ~$496 with FVG Enter Bull — dual bid tags at the add - Open MTM ~+1.2% right after entry — 12H bar gives room before add grid engages - Hard −10% stop caps nominal script risk per lot Negative factors - SMC — overhead ladder: fresh HTF Bear FVG on the 30 Jun board · 4H FVG New Bear ~$501.85 (26 Jun) and daily bear steps from ~$513 (23 Jun) in recent history — long into supply above $501–513 - EMA — HTF below-EMA stack: 4H Cur S:16 vs Avg S:13.5 (+4.9% dev) · 1D Cur S:71 vs Avg S:10.9 (+6.4% dev) · 3D Cur S:17 vs Avg S:8.6 (+15.9% dev) · 1W Cur S:11 vs Avg S:7.2 (+16.6% dev) — 12H long fights slow-TF below-EMA correction until dailies reclaim - Defense names can lag in sharp risk-on mega-cap rallies — relative underperformance vs Nasdaq - Budget headlines are two-sided (spend up vs margin pressure) — macro noise on slow TF - 12H bars move slowly; mark can sit flat or underwater before ALMA exit fires - Past backtest ≠ live fills (spread, US cash gap risk on $500 prints) Takeaway: the 12H ALMA sleeve and tight tester stats back the defense refill, and demand OB/FVG tags the fill — but the slow-TF below-EMA stack and HTF bear FVG ladder frame a bounce against headwind, not a clean trend reclaim; −10% hard stop bounds nominal risk. Base case: follow the 12H ALMA strategy · LTF LONG holds · grind back toward low-$510s / prior 12H fair-value if defense beta stays bid. Bear case: daily below-EMA stack extends · lose 12H ALMA band · −10% toward ~$446 hard stop. Educational idea. Live position — past backtest ≠ future results. NFA.