XAUUSD; READY FOR ADP+NFPGoldOANDA:XAUUSDX_GoldenBoy_XHi, I'm Maicol, an Italian trader. I've been studying Gold since 2019. My trading approach focuses on swing trading and intraday setups. I need your support. Please leave a like and follow my profile. It may seem like a small gesture, but it makes a big difference to my work. Make sure to read the full description to understand today's trading plan. Don't focus only on the chart. Thank you. 🌞 GOOD MORNING EVERYONE 🌞 🔍 Gold Price Action 🔍 Hey guys, sorry for the late update and the timing. I was away all day. Since we're at month-end, I wanted to take it easy and be fully prepared for the start of the new month, with ADP and NFP coming up. My bias remains bearish until the NFP release. Is Gold getting ready for a new bullish move, or are we heading toward key support levels around 3,500? MACRO NEWS UPDATE Q2 2026 Gold Market Summary Today marks the final trading session of the second quarter of 2026. It's important to step back and look at the bigger picture. Gold ends the quarter around $4,051, marking its fourth consecutive monthly decline and a loss of roughly 28% from its all-time high of $5,602 reached on January 29. This correction has been driven by three main factors: 10-year inflation-adjusted Treasury yields (TIPS) have risen to around 2.2%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. The Federal Reserve, under its new Chair Kevin Warsh, has adopted a more hawkish stance, signaling that interest rates are likely to stay higher for longer. A stronger U.S. dollar, with the DXY near its highest level in the last 14 months, continues to put pressure on gold. Recent macroeconomic data also supports this view. The latest FOMC projections point to higher interest rates in 2026, PCE inflation has started to accelerate again, and the market is currently pricing in roughly a 70% probability of a rate hike by September. Despite this, two factors continue to provide support for gold: Strong central bank buying, with 244 tonnes purchased during the first quarter of 2026, while the People's Bank of China has now recorded its 19th consecutive month of gold purchases. The U.S. Supreme Court's decision to uphold the Federal Reserve's independence, reducing political uncertainty that had previously supported safe-haven demand. Short-term outlook Gold is likely to remain within a $3,900-$4,200 range, with $4,000 acting as a key equilibrium level. The U.S. employment report (NFP) on July 2 will likely be the key catalyst: Stronger-than-expected data could push gold back toward $3,900 or even lower. Weaker-than-expected data could trigger a rebound toward $4,150-$4,200, although any upside is expected to be temporary. central bank buying continues to support gold, but elevated real yields, a stronger U.S. dollar, and the Fed's hawkish stance still give the bears the upper hand in the short term. See you later. 🔔 Turn on notifications so you don't miss any updates! 📬 If you have any questions, feel free to message me. I'll be happy to help. 🔍 Reminder 🔍 I avoid trading during the Asian and London sessions. My main focus is on the high-impact news releases at 8:30 AM ET and the New York session open at 9:30 AM ET. In the meantime, I wish everyone a great day. HAPPY TRADING MANAGE YOUR RISK BE PATIENT