Gold Elliott Wave Analysis (GC1!) | Has the Impulse Cycle Ended?Gold FuturesCOMEX_DL:GC1!Mehdi_Abbasi_EWPFinancial markets are rarely random. Behind every candlestick lies the collective psychology of millions of market participants, and over time, that psychology tends to organize itself into recognizable structures. Elliott Wave Principle is not simply a forecasting tool—it is a framework for studying collective market behavior through objective price structure. This analysis is shared in that spirit. It is not a prediction. It is an ongoing research study based on Elliott Wave rules, guidelines, Fibonacci relationships, channel geometry, and price action. The market—not the analyst—will ultimately determine which scenario is correct. Why I Believe the Impulse Phase Has Ended My current wave count suggests that the entire impulsive cycle has already been completed. From an Elliott Wave perspective, Wave (5) has finished across three consecutive degrees (5 of 5 of 5). Until every lower-degree subdivision is complete, an impulse cannot be considered finished. However, when multiple fifth waves terminate simultaneously, the probability of a completed impulse increases significantly. The termination area also aligns with major Fibonacci projections, channel resistance, and several classical characteristics of an extended fifth wave. For these reasons, my primary assumption is that Gold has transitioned from an impulsive phase into a higher-degree corrective phase. Interpreting the Current Decline The recent decline appears to resemble a Leading Diagonal, which may represent the opening leg of a much larger correction. If this interpretation is correct, the correction is still incomplete. Any bullish recovery from current levels should therefore be treated with caution. Unless price breaks and successfully holds above the previous all-time high, every rally should be viewed as a corrective advance, rather than the beginning of a new impulsive uptrend. Corrective rallies are often sharp, fast, and emotionally convincing. They frequently create the illusion that a new bullish trend has begun, while structurally remaining part of a larger corrective sequence. Should this scenario continue to unfold, I expect the current recovery to develop as Wave B, followed by a bearish impulsive Wave C that completes the higher-degree correction. The Previously Published Aggressive Scenario The aggressive scenario that I shared previously remains my primary working scenario. This analysis is not intended to replace it. Instead, it presents another structural interpretation built upon the same Elliott Wave principles and guidelines. An important observation is that both wave counts currently anticipate the same three-wave corrective structure. At this stage, there is no meaningful difference in the expected short-term price behavior. The distinction lies in the degree of the correction and its position within the larger market structure—something that only the market itself will reveal as the pattern continues to develop. For that reason, my focus remains on objective price behavior, not on defending a preferred wave count. My Analytical Framework Every chart I publish follows the same objective process: Elliott Wave Rules Elliott Wave Guidelines Fibonacci Relationships Channel Analysis Price Action These principles are never applied selectively. If market structure invalidates a wave count, the wave count must change. In Elliott Wave analysis, flexibility is not weakness—it is respect for market reality. Why I Share My Research My goal has never been to prove that I am right. Every published chart is part of an ongoing effort to better understand collective market behavior through Elliott Wave Principle. Sometimes the market validates a wave count. Sometimes it invalidates it. Both outcomes are equally valuable because both provide information. In Elliott Wave analysis, no wave count is sacred. The only thing that matters is the structure the market ultimately builds. That is why I have always believed: Facts always win. Ralph Nelson Elliott devoted his life to studying recurring market behavior. Nearly a century later, his work continues to provide one of the most sophisticated frameworks for understanding financial markets. This publication is shared as a small tribute to that legacy. I am Mehdi Abbasi, an independent Elliott Wave researcher from Iran, also known as Mr. Nobody. For more than seven years, I have dedicated my work to studying, practicing, and researching Elliott Wave Principle. Every chart I publish becomes part of my public research record, and I prefer to let the market—not my words—evaluate the quality of that work over time. I will continue following this structure objectively and will revise my analysis whenever market structure requires it. Because in the end... The market always has the final word. Facts always win. Patterns whisper. I listen. — Mr. Nobody 🎧📊 Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar Sep 18, 2023 If the triangle pattern is running correctly?! Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar Oct 16, 2023 Wave 2 Complete ! Bullish Market Ready ! Gold Futures Jun 25, 2024 Triangle sideways pattern in the fourth wave Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar May 17 Gold 4H: Leading Diagonal or Just the Beginning?