Only rarely in the 250 years since the signing of the US Declaration of Independence has an 18-month period commanded as much global attention as the opening years of the second Trump administration. Since taking office for the second time, US President Donald Trump has reshaped the federal bureaucracy, launched sweeping tariffs and military strikes, and is even physically rebuilding some of the very foundations of the nation’s capital.The immediate aftermath of Trump’s inauguration in January 2025 saw some of the largest swings in Australian views of the United States on record. Our new poll results suggest Australians have now largely made up their minds on Trump’s America.But they are questioning why Australia needs its alliance with the US at all. What we foundIn May 2026, the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, in collaboration with YouGov, polled more than 1,000 Australians on their views of the US. Our results paint a picture of an Australian public wrestling with a rapidly shifting strategic landscape — and Australia’s place within it. In 2025, perceptions of the US tumbled to new lows. And in 2026, these views appear to have solidified. Most Australians (58%) continue to say the second Trump administration has been bad for Australia. This includes a ten percentage-point increase since last year in those who describe the administration as “very bad”. Australians are far more likely to say the US is harmful rather than helpful in Asia. It’s a sharp reversal from sentiment just four years ago. They continue to express concern about US institutions: from the future of US democracy (71%) to potential political violence in the country (83%). And less than half think the US alliance makes Australia more secure. Perhaps most strikingly, less than a third of Australians (31%) think the Australian government has properly explained why Australia even needs the alliance at all. Uncomfortable bedfellowsBut what do Australians think their government should actually do about the alliance? Despite their pessimism, just 15% of Australians want Australia to abandon it. Around half (49%) of those surveyed even say Australia needs the US alliance “more than ever” — more than twice the number who disagree. The 2026 Lowy Poll similarly shows record low levels of trust in Washington but robust support for the alliance. In January this year, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney delivered a headline-grabbing Davos address which called for middle powers to “act together” in an era of “rupture” for the international order.This vision appears to be popular with the Australian public. When asked to consider alternatives to the alliance, 75% of respondents supported forming stronger relationships with other middle powers around the world. Only a handful disagreed with doing so.A public dividedOur poll indicates a bottoming out in views of Trump among Australians. Opinions have trended more negative this year compared with last. But the bulk of the dramatic change in Australian opinions on the US occurred immediately in the months following Trump’s inauguration, rather than as a result of more recent developments. In other words, Australians long ago made up their mind on the US president. This mirrors Trump’s generally steady favourability ratings among Americans over most of the past decade. Demographic breakdowns also reveal a country divided on political and social lines when it comes to many of these key questions. Australian men are twice as likely as women to describe the US as mostly helpful in Asia. Labor voters are twice as likely as Coalition voters to describe it as mostly harmful. Labor voters are also significantly more open to Australia becoming closer to China or having a policy of neutrality compared with Coalition voters. Younger Australians under 35 years old are half as likely as those over 65 to support a higher defence budget or to agree that the alliance is more needed “than ever”. A challenging futureThe Australian government faces a difficult foreign policy landscape, balancing between an unpredictable security ally and a volatile Indo-Pacific region. While our results suggest Australian views of Trump have stabilised, broader questions about the alliance — what it means for Australia’s security and the region, and the government’s rationale for it — may still be up for debate. As the US barrels towards midterm elections in November — and the contours of the 2028 presidential election begin to take shape — navigating this tension is likely to be a central challenge for Australian foreign policy in the years to come.The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.