Bitcoin traded near $61,200 and Ethereum near $1,650on Thursday, July 2, 2026, both recovering from multi-month lows one day afterCitigroup cut its 12-month targets on the two largest cryptocurrencies. Bitcoingained 2.17% on the session and Ethereum 2.42%, a relief bounce off this week'sfloor near the lowest levels since late 2024. Citilowered its Bitcoin target to $82,000 from $112,000 and Ethereum to $2,240 from$3,175, citing record ETF outflows and stalled US crypto legislation. My Bitcoinand Ethereum price prediction stays bearish: the bounce is a retest from below,not a reversal.Followme on X for real-time Bitcoin and Ethereum analysis: @ChmielDkWhy Are Bitcoin andEthereum Falling? Citi Cuts Both TargetsCitigroup'sdowngrade landed on July 1, with the bank slashing its 12-month net ETF inflowassumption to zero from $10 billion. Bitcoin (BTC) ETF flows have turned negative, down about$3.3 billion so far in 2026, and Citi expects broader adoption to stall until anew catalyst arrives. The bankalso flagged slow progress on US crypto legislation and the risk of selling bydigital asset treasury companies. Its bear case values Bitcoin at $53,000 andEthereum at $1,094 over the next year.PaulHoward, Senior Director at Wincent, called June's roughly $4 billion in US spotBitcoin ETF outflows "part of a wider portfolio reallocation rather than astructural loss of confidence." Howardargued that investors rotated into higher-conviction bets, particularlyhigh-profile IPOs and equities offering more immediate upside. Elevated ratesand geopolitical uncertainty pushed institutions to trim exposure tohigher-volatility assets, he added.Theselloff has a clear structure:Citi's cut: 12-month Bitcoin target down to $82,000 from $112,000, Ethereum to $2,240 from $3,175ETF inflow assumption: reduced to zero from $10 billion, with 2026 flows already down $3.3 billionRecord redemptions: US spot Bitcoin ETFs shed roughly $4 billion in June, the largest monthly outflow on recordCapital rotation: allocators moved into the SpaceX IPO and AI equities, draining crypto liquidityStalled legislation: no progress on US digital asset market structure to anchor institutional allocationsBitcoin TechnicalAnalysis: The $60,000 Trendline Holds, for NowMy chartshows Bitcoin bouncing 2.17% off the $59,900 shelf, defending both this week'slow and the ascending trendline that has framed price since the Februarybottom. Wednesday'slong candle rejected the move under $60,000 and closed back near $61,200, abullish wick on the daily. That candle and the trendline confirm my Tuesdayanalysis rather than contradict it. The $60,000 zone is broken weekly support,and price is now retesting it from below.Twoexponential moving averages cap the tape. The 50 EMA sits at $66,144 and the200 EMA at $76,037, both above spot and both sloping down, the bearish stackthat has defined Bitcoin since February. In 15 yearsreading daily charts, 10 of them at FinanceMagnates.com (my analyst page), a bounce into a falling 50 EMA is a sellcandidate until price reclaims it.As my Tuesday analysis detailed, last week's weekly closebelow $60,000 flipped former support into resistance under the polarityprinciple and broke the ascending trendline drawn from December 2022 lows. My primarytarget stays at $44,100, the 100% Fibonacci extension of January's decline anda 25% drop from spot, a level I first mapped in my earlier $45,000 forecast. The first shelf below sits at$53,700, the summer 2024 low.A weekly reclaim of $60,000 and the 200 EMA near$76,000 is what invalidates the bear case.Ethereum TechnicalAnalysis: Consolidating Below the $1,800 ShelfEthereum (ETH) added 2.42% to $1,648 on Thursday, but mychart shows price consolidating below the 2026 lows near $1,800, the shelfmarked by the $1,761 level. The rebound has not changed the structure. Localsupport sits at $1,550, the floor set by the early June lows, and a daily closebelow it opens the path lower.The movingaverage grid is stacked against ETH. The 50 EMA runs at $1,809 and the 200 EMAat $2,275, both well above spot and both pointed down. Spot trades nearly 38%under the 200 EMA, a gap that measures how far the Ethereum downtrend hasstretched. Ethereumsits roughly 66% below its August 2025 record, and until it reclaims the $1,809average, every rally is a lower high in my framework.My twobearish targets still wait for a print. The first is $1,407, the April 2025 lowI marked as Target 1. The second is the round $1,000 handle near the $1,074November 2022 low, Target 2 on my chart. As my February Ethereum analysis mapped, the $1,760, $1,400, and$1,000 levels form the descending target stack, and my November forecast flagged the same $1,400 April zoneas the medium-term destination.MaximeSeiler, CEO and Co-Founder at STS Digital, reads the weakness as flow-driven.He called June's drop "less macro and more a simple lack of freshcapital," pointing to the SpaceX IPO pulling allocation out of cryptoentirely. Seiler seesinstitutions still deploying, only slower, with the AI narrative and the SpaceXlisting offering cleaner return asymmetry than a range-bound market.How Low Can Bitcoin andEthereum Go? Price PredictionsCiti'srevised numbers sit above my chart targets but below consensus bull calls, andeach reads differently against my levels. Citi's $82,000 Bitcoin base caseassumes flat ETF flows, a level my structure reaches only on a weekly reclaimof $60,000 first, which has not happened. Its $53,000bear case sits just above my $44,100 target, so on the downside my chart ismore aggressive than Citi's. For Ethereum, Citi's $2,240 base case would needETH to clear the $1,809 and $2,275 EMAs, a move the chart shows no sign of,while its $1,094 bear case aligns almost exactly with my $1,000 Target 2.The bullcase leans on institutions stepping in lower. Paul Howard expects the $50,000region to attract renewed institutional interest, a level that sits between my$53,700 shelf and my $44,100 target. MaximeSeiler sees the four-year cycle intact and argues capital returns onceregulatory clarity and price momentum realign. Standard Chartered's prior$7,500 Ethereum target and Bernstein's $150,000 Bitcoin call remain the farbull markers, both requiring a macro turn neither chart confirms.FAQ, Bitcoin and EthereumPrice PredictionWhy did Citi cut itsBitcoin and Ethereum price targets?Citilowered its 12-month Bitcoin target to $82,000 from $112,000 and Ethereum to$2,240 from $3,175 on July 1, 2026. The bank cut its expected net ETF inflowsto zero from $10 billion, citing negative flows, weak investor appetite, andstalled US crypto legislation. Its bear case values Bitcoin at $53,000 andEthereum at $1,094.How low can Bitcoin go in2026?My charttargets $44,100, the 100% Fibonacci extension of January's decline and a 25%drop from the $61,200 spot price. The first support shelf sits at $53,700, thesummer 2024 low. A weekly close reclaiming $60,000 and the 200 EMA near $76,000would invalidate that bearish path and shift focus higher.How low can Ethereum go?My twobearish targets are $1,407, the April 2025 low, and the round $1,000 handlenear the $1,074 November 2022 low. Ethereum trades below its 50 EMA at $1,809and its 200 EMA at $2,275, with local support at $1,550. A daily close below$1,550 opens the path toward those targets.Are the Bitcoin ETFoutflows a structural problem?Paul Howardof Wincent views June's roughly $4 billion in outflows as portfolioreallocation, not lost conviction, with capital rotating into IPOs andequities. Maxime Seiler of STS Digital ties the drop to a lack of fresh capitalafter the SpaceX IPO. Both expect flows to return once regulation and momentumrealign.What would reverse thecrypto selloff?A reversalneeds three things: ETF outflows turning to sustained inflows, progress on UScrypto market structure legislation, and a friendlier macro backdrop. On mycharts, Bitcoin must reclaim $60,000 and the 200 EMA near $76,000, and Ethereummust clear its $1,809 50 EMA, before the bearish structure flips.This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.