Compound (COMP) LONG — 1D ALMA Setup (WR 79%)Compound / US DollarCOINBASE:COMPUSDGoldfinch_song█ SETUP Compound · COMPUSD · 1d · long only. ALMA Averaging Strategy: ALMA 3 / σ2, SD band 2, min diff 6 bar to add / 1 bar to exit, 25% per bar, up to 4 adds, hard stop −10% from average entry. Strategy Tester (COMP 1D): Win rate 79% · profit factor 6.6 · max drawdown 18% Avg winning trade +27.8% · avg losing trade −8.8% Typical hold ~16×1d bars · DeFi lending / governance blue-chip sleeve ═ █ WHY NOW Wednesday midnight UTC bar — fresh 1D ALMA long on 2 Jul 00:00 UTC ~$15.62. Single first leg on the template (no scale-in cluster yet) — DeFi infrastructure name on a daily mean-reversion signal. Hard stop zone −10% from entry ~$14.06. Exits follow Pine ALMA flip + min diff or the hard stop — not a discretionary DeFi narrative target. ═ █ MACRO Sector: COMP = on-chain lending and governance infrastructure — trades with DeFi / alt-beta liquidity. Tape (2 Jul): BTC reclaimed the $60K area while Q3 opens with thinner alt liquidity after the Q2 reset — blue-chip DeFi can lead when investors reach past pure meme beta. Execution is 1D ALMA, not a protocol roadmap or token-unlock forecast. ═ █ OUTLOOK Positive factors - 79% WR · PF 6.6 · avg win +27.8% vs avg loss −8.8% — strong payoff skew on the daily sleeve - Tight tester max DD 18% vs large avg win — asymmetric profile for a slow TF - Fresh midnight UTC anchor inside the 24h publish window — first bar of the Jul book day - Lending / DeFi infra — idiosyncratic beta vs pure L1 meme clusters elsewhere in crypto - Hard −10% stop caps nominal script risk on the opening leg Negative factors - Single lot only — no averaged discount yet if the daily bar extends lower before adds qualify - 1D bars gap on DeFi hack / regulation headlines — %-stop can slip on COINBASE spot - Alts remain headline-sensitive while global equity beta wobbles on AI-chip fear - Small 38-day backtest sample in the strategy name vs multi-year equity templates — forward path can diverge - Sister DeFi names in the book correlate — not a diversifier if the sector sells as one Takeaway: the 79% WR daily ALMA sleeve and asymmetric tester stats support the midnight long, but a one-lot entry on a headline-sensitive DeFi name caps the map to a script-following grind — hard −10% bounds risk until adds or an exit print. Base case: follow the 1D ALMA strategy · daily band holds · work toward prior winner-length holds (~16 bars) if alt-beta stays constructive. Bear case: lose daily ALMA · DeFi sector risk-off extends · −10% toward ~$14.1 from ~$15.6 entry.