Skip to navigationSkip to main contentSkip to right columnADVERTISEMENTMarc GubertiWed, July 1, 2026 at 1:55 PM GMT+2 4 min readQuick ReadMTUM climbed 30% YTD to $326, but its AI/cloud mega-cap holdings are fracturing while one stock masks broader portfolio weakness.Micron (MU) surged 801% in a year, and its top-tier momentum score could push MTUM's semiconductor weight sharply higher after November's rebalance.A 10-year Treasury yield break above 4.75% would compress MTUM's long-duration AI holdings before November's reconstitution can rescue the portfolio.Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Microsoft didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.The iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (NYSEARCA:MTUM) has run hard this year, climbing 30% year to date and 38% over the past 12 months to roughly $326. Headline numbers, though, mask a violent rotation inside MTUM's portfolio. The AI/cloud mega-caps that powered the momentum trade through 2025 have stumbled, while one AI-memory name has done almost all the lifting. With the next MSCI semi-annual reconstitution due in late November, MTUM holders need to understand exactly what the rebalance could rewire.Who is Danny / Shutterstock.comWhat MTUM Owns Right Now and Why the Mix Is CrackingMTUM tracks the MSCI USA Momentum Index, which selects large- and mid-cap U.S. stocks scored on risk-adjusted 6- and 12-month price momentum. Expense ratio is a cheap 0.15%, and the fund rebalances semi-annually in May and November. The current cohort was set at the May reset, which loaded the portfolio with AI/cloud leaders. That cohort is now fracturing in real time: top cloud mega-cap holdings have slipped over the last month, while Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) is up 297% YTD. That single name is masking weakness across the rest of the book.Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Microsoft didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.The Macro Factor That Matters Most: Real Yields and AI CapexThe one macro variable to monitor is the 10-year Treasury yield, currently near 4.4%. MTUM's top weights are long-duration growth names whose valuations and capex plans are tied to financing conditions. The cloud trio collectively spent enormous sums on capex last quarter, almost all aimed at AI infrastructure. If the 10-year breaks above 4.75%, expect further multiple compression in the cloud trio and a knock-on hit to Micron, whose HBM demand depends on hyperscaler order books staying open.The signal to watch is the CME FedWatch tool for the September FOMC meeting and the weekly Treasury yield prints on the Fed's H.15 release. Check both at least weekly. The historical playbook is 2022, when a yield surge from 1.5% to 4.3% drove momentum factor drawdowns of roughly 30% as growth leaders deflated. A move the other way, a confirmed cut path and a 10-year drifting toward 4%, would refuel the existing AI-heavy cohort before the November rebalance even fires.Terms and Privacy PolicyEU DSA contactPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore Info