EUR/USD faces a critical test before US jobs reportEuro / United States Dollar (Sep 2026)CMCMARKETS:EURUSDU2026cmcmarketsThe EUR/USD finds itself in a precarious position one day ahead of the key June US jobs report on Thursday, 2 July. Currently, EUR/USD is trading around 1.14, which is a key level of support. Additionally, we have seen a key level of resistance emerge at the 10-day exponential moving average. Meanwhile, support for the euro appears fairly limited at this point. In fact, the euro is trading below the 50- and 200-day moving averages, suggesting they are now more likely to act as resistance than support. If the euro breaks below the 1.1400 level following what could be a strong US jobs report, it is likely to weaken towards 1.1280. Over time, that could even lead to a further decline towards the 1.1090 area. It is worth noting that the euro may be forming a bullish divergence, with the RSI making a higher low as recently as 24 June, while the exchange rate has made a lower low since mid-March. That could be the first sign that the euro is forming a bottom. However, it does not necessarily mean that the euro’s decline is over. At this point, broad-based dollar strength appears to be developing across markets, which could become a significant headwind for the euro going forward. Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management. Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.