Is Wave IV Building the Foundation for the Final Fifth Wave?Silver/US DollarSAXO:XAGUSDMehdi_Abbasi_EWPSilver (XAGUSD) | Is Wave IV Building the Foundation for the Final Fifth Wave? Financial markets are not random. Every price movement reflects the collective decisions of millions of market participants, and over time those decisions tend to organize themselves into recognizable structures. Elliott Wave Principle is not simply a forecasting tool—it is a framework for studying collective market behavior through objective price structure. This publication is shared from that perspective. Its purpose is not to predict the future, but to evaluate the probabilities suggested by Elliott Wave rules, guidelines, Fibonacci relationships, channel analysis, and price action. Ultimately, the market—not the analyst—will decide which scenario is correct. Has Wave III Already Finished? My conservative interpretation suggests that Wave III has most likely been completed. One of the strongest arguments supporting this view is the extension of Wave 5 within Wave III, a characteristic frequently observed in powerful commodity trends such as Gold and Silver. The termination area also aligns with key Fibonacci projections, channel resistance, and several classical Elliott Wave guidelines, strengthening the probability that the third wave has reached completion. What Does the Principle of Alternation Suggest? Within this wave count, Wave II developed as an Expanded Flat correction. According to the Elliott Wave guideline of Alternation, Wave IV would be expected to develop into a different type of corrective structure, making a classic Zigzag or a complex Zigzag variation the higher-probability outcome. The current decline also resembles a Leading Diagonal, which could represent the opening phase of Wave A within the larger Wave IV correction. If this interpretation proves correct, I would expect the market to complete a three-wave corrective recovery (Wave B) before another impulsive decline develops as Wave C, completing the entire Wave IV correction. Why I Still Treat Every Rally as Corrective One of the most common mistakes in market analysis is assuming that every strong rally marks the beginning of a new bullish trend. From my perspective, every bullish advance should be considered corrective until price successfully breaks and holds above the previous major high. Corrective rallies are often sharp, fast, and emotionally convincing. They frequently create the illusion of a renewed uptrend while remaining nothing more than part of a larger corrective structure. For that reason, I remain focused on market structure rather than market emotion. Why the Final Fifth Wave Remains a Valid Possibility There is another reason why I continue to keep the bullish fifth-wave scenario open. Historically, Silver has often demonstrated stronger relative momentum than Gold during the later stages of precious metals bull markets, although this relationship is not consistent in every cycle. That historical tendency leaves room for Silver to complete one final impulsive advance before the larger-degree Wave (I) reaches completion. At the same time, Elliott Wave also provides another important guideline. When Wave III becomes exceptionally extended, the following Wave V may occasionally terminate as a truncated fifth wave, failing to produce a significant new high before a major reversal begins. The exceptional expansion of Waves I and III, illustrated on this chart, keeps both possibilities technically valid. If Wave IV completes while respecting its initial invalidation level, I will begin monitoring the development of the final impulsive advance. Whether that advance produces a new all-time high or ends as a truncated fifth wave will ultimately be determined by market structure—not personal expectation. My Analytical Framework Every chart I publish follows the same objective process: Elliott Wave Rules Elliott Wave Guidelines Fibonacci Relationships Channel Analysis Price Action These principles are never applied selectively. If market structure invalidates a wave count, the wave count must change. In Elliott Wave analysis, flexibility is not weakness—it is respect for market reality. Why I Share My Research My objective has never been to prove that I am right. Every chart I publish is part of an ongoing effort to better understand collective market behavior through Elliott Wave Principle. Sometimes the market validates a wave count. Sometimes it invalidates it. Both outcomes are equally valuable because both contribute to a deeper understanding of market structure. In Elliott Wave analysis, no wave count is sacred. The only thing that matters is the structure the market ultimately builds. That is why I have always believed: Facts always win. Ralph Nelson Elliott left behind a remarkable legacy for generations of market analysts and researchers. Nearly a century later, his work continues to provide one of the most comprehensive frameworks for understanding collective market behavior. This publication is shared as a small tribute to that legacy. I am Mehdi Abbasi, an independent Elliott Wave researcher from Iran, also known as Mr. Nobody. For more than seven years, I have dedicated my work to studying, practicing, and researching Elliott Wave Principle. Every chart I publish becomes part of my public research record, and I prefer to let the market—not my words—evaluate the quality of that work over time. I will continue following this structure objectively and revise my analysis whenever market structure requires it. Because in the end... The market always has the final word. Facts always win. Patterns whisper. I listen. — Mr. Nobody 🎧📊 Silver / U.S. Dollar Sep 5, 2023 Flat Corrective CFDs on Silver (US$ / OZ) Sep 13, 2023 Corrective Flat Done ?Market Continue Downside! Silver / U.S. Dollar Oct 13, 2023 Second wave completed!! Three waves down, three waves up!! Silver / U.S. Dollar Mar 5, 2024 Possible idea in silver bull market May 27, 2024 The first idea: Silver is a Flat expanded corrective pattern Silver / U.S. Dollar May 21, 2025 “Silver on the Edge – Is Wave 5 Loading?” Silver / U.S. Dollar May 19 XAGUSD | 4H Wave Map — A Two-Layer Look at Structure