ANA SWANSON2026年6月30日The war in Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have inflicted deep economic pain on many countries and sent some industries into a tailspin as they struggled with higher prices for energy, fertilizer and chemicals.伊朗战争以及霍尔木兹海峡事实上的关闭给许多国家造成了严重的经济痛苦，也让一些行业因能源、化肥和化工产品价格大幅上涨而陷入混乱。It may also have given China a competitive edge.但这场危机也可能给中国带来了竞争优势。While the energy shocks and supply chain challenges stemming from the war have posed some challenges for China, the country has largely managed to avoid the kind of inflation spike and cascading economic and political effects that have afflicted many other nations.尽管战争带来的能源冲击和供应链挑战确实给中国造成了一些困难，但该国基本避免了困扰许多其他国家的通胀飙升以及连锁性的经济和政治后果。The reason: China’s oil and gas reserves and clean energy supplies have allowed it to avoid the worst of the effects, according to an analysis published Monday by the Asia Group, a Washington-based consulting firm. That is reinforcing the country’s position as a competitive place for manufacturing.华盛顿咨询机构亚洲集团周一发布的分析报告指出了背后的原因：中国的石油和天然气储备以及清洁能源供应使其得以避开最严重的冲击。这进一步强化了中国的制造业优势。The firm looked at the effects of disruptions in the strait and how it affected Asian economies and politics. One main takeaway is that the crisis has demonstrated Beijing’s ability to use prices, export controls, subsidies and a managed currency to absorb shocks in its economy.这家咨询公司研究了霍尔木兹海峡中断的影响及其给亚洲国家带来的经济和政治冲击。其中一个主要结论是，这场危机充分展示了北京运用价格手段、出口管制、补贴政策和汇率管理来消化外部经济冲击的能力。The disruptions spurred by the United States have also helped Beijing to promote itself to other countries as the stable partner of choice, and accelerated global demand for clean energy technology like solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles, industries that China dominates.美国所引发的这些动荡也助力北京向其他国家展示自己是一个稳定可靠的合作伙伴，并加速了全球对太阳能电池板、电池和电动汽车等清洁能源技术的需求，而这些产业正是中国占据主导地位的领域。“It’s hard not to come to the conclusion that China is a winner here,” said Kurt Campbell, the chairman and co-founder of the Asia Group and a former deputy U.S. secretary of state in the Biden administration.“很难不得出中国是这场危机赢家的结论，”亚洲集团董事长兼联合创始人、拜登政府的副国务卿库尔特·坎贝尔说。Disruptions to energy production and shipping stemming from the war in Iran have raised the cost of oil and gas globally over the past three months. Asia, the world’s biggest manufacturing hub, is particularly dependent on the Middle East for energy and industrial products. Asia sources 80 percent of its oil and 90 percent of its natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz.过去三个月来，伊朗战争引发的能源生产和航运中断已推高了全球油气价格。亚洲是全球最大的制造业中心，对中东能源和工业品的依赖程度尤为突出。亚洲80%的石油和90%的天然气须经霍尔木兹海峡输入。But the impacts have gone far beyond the energy market. The war has also impeded the production and movement of certain critical products — like naphtha, used to make plastics and chemicals; helium, used in semiconductor factories and M.R.I. machines; and sulfur, which is needed to refine copper, nickel and critical minerals needed in electric vehicle batteries and electrical systems.但冲击远不止于能源市场。这场战争还严重阻碍了若干关键产品的生产与流通：包括用于生产塑料和化工品的石脑油、半导体工厂和核磁共振设备所需的氦气，以及用于精炼铜、镍及电动汽车电池和电气系统所需关键矿物所不可或缺的硫磺。The Trump administration says it has reached a peace deal, and traffic had been picking up in the Strait of Hormuz. But over the last few days, Iran and the United States have traded new attacks and threats. Even if the cease-fire were to get back on track, many analysts expect the consequences of the war to linger. The threat of future closures or damage to ships that traverse the strait will push up insurance costs for shippers, and encourage companies to find longer and more expensive routes to avoid it.特朗普政府表示已达成和平协议，霍尔木兹海峡的交通量也一度回升。但过去几天，伊朗和美国又相互发动了新的攻击和威胁。许多分析师预计，即便停火重回正轨，战争的后续影响仍将持续。未来海峡关闭或船只受损的威胁将推高航运保险成本，并促使企业寻找更长、更昂贵的航线以规避风险。In China, factories that make products like chemicals, metals and synthetic fibers are still heavily dependent on foreign sources of sulfur, helium and naphtha that come through the Strait of Hormuz.在中国，生产化工品、金属及合成纤维的工厂仍在相当程度上依赖经霍尔木兹海峡进口的硫磺、氦气和石脑油。But China has managed to avoid the brunt of many other impacts from higher global energy prices by drawing on its energy reserves and imposing export restrictions and quotas on its oil refineries. China’s oil imports were down by more than 30 percent annually in May, leaving a large supply of global oil for other countries to purchase.但中国通过动用能源储备、对炼油厂实施出口限制和配额成功避免了全球能源价格上涨带来的许多其他冲击。5月份中国石油进口同比下降超过30%，在国际市场上为其他国家腾出了大量供应空间。九江的一家炼油厂。战争期间，中国通过动用能源储备维持了炼油厂的运转。Recent supply chain disruptions pose much more significant challenges for other Asian countries, according to the report, which used A.I. to model numerous scenarios for how governments, companies and other actors would respond to various outcomes in the strait.报告利用人工智能模拟了政府、企业和其他参与者在霍尔木兹海峡局势出现各种走向时可能采取的反应，指出近期的供应链中断给其他亚洲国家带来了更为严峻的挑战。In India, rising prices for fertilizer, fuel and food have stoked political opposition to the government. Higher fertilizer costs, combined with prospects for a weak monsoon season, could weigh on the more than 40 percent of India’s work force that are employed in agriculture.在印度，化肥、燃料和食品价格上涨已激起国内的反政府情绪。化肥成本攀升加上预计季风季降水不足可能会打击到印度超过40%的农业人口。In Japan, where fuel subsidies are already equivalent to about half the defense budget, higher energy prices could also increase fiscal pressures on the government. Rising prices and shortages of aluminum and naphtha, which are used to make auto parts, have led to production cuts and delays for Japanese carmakers.在日本，燃料补贴已相当于国防预算的一半左右，能源价格上涨还可能进一步加重政府的财政压力。用于制造汽车零部件的铝和石脑油价格的上涨和短缺已导致日本汽车制造商减产和延期交货。The political and economic repercussions are even keener in Southeast Asia, where many countries are net energy importers, and governments have turned to emergency borrowing and extended subsidies to buffer their economies.在东南亚，政治和经济冲击更为严重，因为许多国家都是能源净进口国，各国政府不得不通过紧急借款和延长补贴政策来缓冲经济冲击。The Philippines has seen labor strikes and declared a national energy emergency. In Indonesia, nickel producers short of sulfuric acid have cut their output, while tourism in Bali has fallen because of higher airfares.菲律宾已经出现劳工罢工，并宣布进入国家能源紧急状态。在印度尼西亚，由于缺乏硫酸，镍生产商削减了产量，而巴厘岛旅游业则因为机票价格上涨而受到打击。Amid the energy shock, many Southeast Asian countries are looking to China to provide solar panels, battery energy storage systems and electric vehicles, and China’s exports of those products have soared.在能源冲击之下，许多东南亚国家开始向中国采购太阳能电池板、电池储能系统和电动汽车，相关产品的出口因此大幅增长。The energy crisis could also erode the perception of Southeast Asia’s manufacturing competitiveness, slowing a trend where companies have tried to move their factories out of China and set up facilities in other markets, the group’s analysts said.亚洲集团分析师还指出，能源危机可能削弱外界对东南亚制造业竞争力的信心，进而减缓企业将工厂迁出中国、布局其他市场的趋势。The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has had a much more limited impact on the United States, given its energy production. But it could have some negative consequences in sectors like A.I. The Hormuz crisis has stressed Asian supply chains that make semiconductors, transformers, energy systems, copper and other materials, which are used to build U.S. data centers, the report said.鉴于美国自身的能源生产能力，霍尔木兹海峡关闭对美国的影响要小得多。但它仍可能对人工智能等行业带来一些负面后果。报告称，霍尔木兹海峡危机正在向亚洲的半导体、变压器、能源系统、铜材及其他材料的供应链施压，而美国建数据中心少不了这些材料。The biggest question now is how long the crisis persists.现在最大的问题是，这场危机会持续多久。Mr. Campbell said the impact on many countries and supply chains had been “deep and profound,” and could worsen if the crisis continues. Japan, South Korea and others have worked through many of the reserves that have so far buffered them from the economic effects.坎贝尔表示，这场危机对许多国家和供应链的影响“深重而深远”，如果危机持续下去，情况可能进一步恶化。日本、韩国等国赖以缓冲经济冲击的储备大多已在前期消耗殆尽。“In many capacities, from jet fuel to a lot of diesel oils, we are basically almost running on empty,” he said.“从航空燃油到大量柴油，在许多方面，我们基本上都快要见底了，”他说。Ana Swanson报道贸易和国际经济新闻，常驻华盛顿。她从事新闻工作已超过十年。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。