Fundamental Market Analysis for June 30, 2026 USDJPYUS Dollar/Japanese YenSAXO:USDJPYFresh-Forexcast2004After the yen reached its weakest level since 1986, market attention has shifted to how long Japanese authorities will remain limited to verbal warnings. The Ministry of Finance again confirmed its readiness to respond to excessive currency moves, but did not strengthen its language or announce practical measures. This keeps the risk of a sharp yen rebound in focus, but does not yet remove the US dollar’s fundamental advantage. The interest rate differential continues to favour the US dollar. The Bank of Japan raised its rate to 1.0% in June, but this remains well below the Federal Reserve’s 3.50%–3.75% range. At the same time, the market is assessing the possibility of further US rate increases following strong employment data. This divergence supports carry-related demand and maintains the yen’s sensitivity to US Treasury yields. The risk of intervention remains elevated. However, without confirmed action from Tokyo or a meaningful decline in Federal Reserve expectations, this risk does not yet outweigh the yield differential. The base scenario therefore allows USDJPY to continue rising. Its sustainability will depend on US economic data and any further tightening in Japan’s official rhetoric. Trading idea: BUY 162.400, SL 162.050, TP 163.450