PATRICIA MAZZEI, ANTON TROIANOVSKI2026年6月30日上周的纽约州初选中，两位现任民主党众议员输给了挑战者，后者指责他们对以色列批评力度不够。图为获胜者克莱尔·瓦尔迪兹（左一）和达里亚里萨·阿维拉·舍瓦利耶（右一）与市长马姆达尼一同参加选前集会。 Angelina Katsanis for The New York TimesBitter foreign policy debates over Israel and Iran are fracturing the Democratic and Republican parties, creating powerful wedge issues that are reshaping the battle for control of Congress this year and could affect the 2028 presidential election.围绕以色列与伊朗问题的激烈外交政策之争正在撕裂民主党和共和党，形成强大的分裂议题，重塑着今年国会控制权的争夺战局，并有可能波及2028年总统大选。The dispute among Democrats, in particular, has already left a lasting mark on the midterms. Israel’s growing unpopularity since the war in Gaza began nearly three years ago emerged as a dominant force last week, when two incumbent House Democrats in New York lost to primary challengers who had cast them as insufficiently critical of the U.S. ally.尤其是在民主党内部，分歧已对中期选举产生深远影响。自近三年前加沙战争爆发以来，以色列在美国越来越不受欢迎。上周，这种情绪成为一股主导力量：纽约州两名众议院现任民主党议员在初选中败给了挑战者，后者指责他们对这个美国盟友的批评力度不够。And both U.S. support of Israel and the war with Iran continue to cause fissures inside the Republican Party, and particularly within President Trump’s Make America Great Again movement. Isolationists who hailed Mr. Trump’s campaign promise to avoid foreign wars say they feel betrayed by his intervention in Iran and the domestic consequence: spiking prices.与此同时，美国对以色列的支持以及对伊朗的战争也在共和党内部——尤其是在特朗普总统的“让美国再次伟大”(MAGA)运动阵营中——持续制造裂痕。曾对特朗普“避免卷入海外战争”竞选承诺寄予厚望的孤立主义者们表示，特朗普军事干预伊朗及其在国内引发的后果——物价飞涨——让他们感到自己遭到了背叛。Recently, another front has emerged against the president. Now that he is negotiating with Iran, he faces backlash from hawks within the party who believe he did not achieve his goal of crippling the country’s military and nuclear capabilities, let alone end its hard-line regime.最近，特朗普又面临来自另一战线的压力。眼下他正在与伊朗谈判，却招致党内鹰派的不满，后者认为他未能实现摧毁伊朗军事与核能力的目标，更遑论终结其强硬政权。The rifts are producing unsettling election outcomes in a critical midterm year in which control of Congress, and the fate of Mr. Trump’s agenda, are at stake. Some centrist Democrats are losing, with more at risk in upcoming races. Some Republican voters are staying home, a potential disaster for their party if the trend carries to November.在这个国会控制权和特朗普议程的命运皆悬而未决的关键中期选举年，这些裂痕正引发令人不安的选举结果。一些中间派民主党人正在落败，还有更多人将在接下来的竞选中面临风险；一些共和党选民则选择弃票，倘若这一趋势延续至11月，对该党而言将是一场潜在灾难。All of those dynamics are emboldening critics who want to permanently reshape their respective parties’ ideologies and policy platforms — and who are planning to take that fight to the 2028 presidential election.所有这些动态都在为那些希望彻底重塑各自政党意识形态与政策路线的批评者们壮胆——他们正盘算着将这场较量一直延续到2028年总统大选。The powers within both parties seem at a loss on how to handle their increasingly restive and unpredictable bases.两党的领导层似乎都对如何应对日益躁动不安、难以预测的基层选民感到束手无策。Democrats were especially shaken by the insurgent left’s success in New York last Tuesday. Voters nominated two democratic socialists who embraced anti-Israel positions and rhetoric.上周二纽约州左翼反建制派的成功尤其令民主党人震惊。选民提名了两位持反以色列立场和言论的民主社会主义者。“We’ve got to figure out a way so it doesn’t blow the party apart,” said Matt Bennett, a co-founder of Third Way, a centrist Democratic think tank. Mr. Bennett described a Democratic “freakout” following the results on Tuesday over whether the rise of hard-left candidates would repel Jewish and moderate voters.中间派民主党智库“第三道路”的联合创始人马特·贝内特说：“我们必须找到办法，不让这件事把民主党彻底撕裂。”贝内特表示，周二的选举结果引发了民主党内部的“恐慌”，因为他们担心强硬左翼候选人的崛起会把犹太选民和温和派选民赶跑。Republicans are experiencing divisions of their own over the party’s support for Israel. The Iran war exacerbated underlying tensions among Republicans over what “America First,” Mr. Trump’s resonant but ill-defined campaign message, means when it comes to backing Israel in conflicts in the Middle East.共和党也在以色列问题上经历着分裂。伊朗战争加剧了共和党内部潜藏的紧张关系——特朗普那句深入人心却语焉不详的竞选口号“美国优先”落实到中东冲突中对以色列的支持问题上，究竟意味着什么。“It’s much more fun, I think — for most of us who lean right or right-leaning independents — to be fighting with the left,” the podcaster Megyn Kelly told Vice President JD Vance earlier this month. “But it’s been kind of civil war-y over on the conservative team since this whole thing got launched.”“我想，对我们大多数倾向右翼或偏右的独立人士来说，跟左派斗要有意思得多，”播客主持人梅根·凯利本月早些时候对副总统万斯说。“但自从这件事开始以来，保守派阵营内部有点内战的味道了。”Still, Mr. Trump’s hold on his party remains dominant, with Republicans he has derided as insufficiently loyal losing their primaries. That grip has tamped down some internal party conflict.尽管如此，特朗普对共和党的控制力仍然强劲，被他斥为不够忠诚的共和党人在初选中纷纷落败。这种控制力在一定程度上将党内冲突压了下来。Decisive primary outcomes初选结果意义重大Polls show that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has radically changed attitudes among Democratic voters, who are now largely unified in sympathizing with the Palestinians. Many leading Democrats are now sharply more critical of Israel.民调显示，巴以冲突已从根本上改变了民主党选民的态度，他们如今普遍对巴勒斯坦人抱以同情，许多民主党领袖如今对以色列的批评也明显加剧。But the pro-Palestinian rhetoric from far-left candidates still makes some mainstream Democrats uncomfortable. Some of it, said Scott Stringer, a Democratic former New York City comptroller, amounts to “blatant antisemitism.”但极左翼候选人的亲巴勒斯坦言论仍让一些主流民主党人感到不安。纽约市前主计长、民主党人斯科特·斯特林格表示，其中一些言论无异于“赤裸裸的反犹主义”。“If there is a group of people who may be having temporary electoral success who believe the path forward is to use antisemitism as a wedge,” he said, “then there’s going to be a battle within the Democratic Party.”他说：“如果有一批人可能暂时在选举中取得成功，并坚信前进的道路就是利用反犹主义作为楔子，那么民主党内部势必会爆发一场斗争。”The tensions have produced decisive primary outcomes only in states or congressional districts that are not competitive. The New York City races are likely to turn existing Democratic districts only a darker shade of blue.这些紧张关系目前只在那些竞争不激烈的州或选区产生了一边倒的初选结果。纽约市的竞选很可能只是让现有的民主党选区变得更蓝。The danger for establishment Democrats is for hard-left candidates to win competitive primaries and then struggle to appeal to more ideologically diverse voters in the general election, when economic issues are expected to drive voter choices.对于民主党建制派来说，真正的危险在于：强硬左翼候选人赢得竞争激烈的初选，却无法在大选中吸引意识形态更加多元的选民——而届时，经济议题预计将主导选民的投票取向。Mr. Trump has already branded New York’s democratic socialist victors, who had the support of Mayor Zohran Mamdani, as “communists.”特朗普已经给得到纽约市长马姆达尼支持、在初选中获胜的民主社会主义者贴上“共产主义者”的标签。“Donald Trump wants to portray the Democratic Party as either having been overtaken by D.S.A. or Mayor Mamdani, and that is not the case,” said Halie Soifer, chief executive of the Jewish Democratic Council of America. The New York candidates, she added, “could not win anywhere else.”“唐纳德·特朗普想把民主党描绘成被民主社会主义者或市长马姆达尼接管的政党，但事实并非如此，”美国犹太民主委员会首席执行官哈莉·索伊弗说。她补充道，纽约的这些候选人“换到其他任何地方都赢不了”。That has not stopped them from trying. Far-left progressives are on the ballot in several states, including Colorado, Michigan and Wisconsin, trying to challenge the conventional wisdom that extremists cannot win battleground races. The left argues that it is time to try a different tack that could win over some Trump voters — a theory that will not be tested until the fall.然而，这并没有阻止他们继续尝试。极左进步派候选人已经出现在包括科罗拉多、密歇根和威斯康星等多个州的选票上，试图挑战“极端派无法赢得摇摆州选举”的传统观念。左派认为，是时候尝试一种新策略了，这种策略或许能争取到部分特朗普选民，但这一理论要到秋季选举时才能接受检验。Declining Enthusiasm Within MAGAMAGA阵营热情消退Overall, Republicans still overwhelmingly support Mr. Trump, polls show. Most of his endorsed candidates have won their primaries, with a few notable exceptions in governor’s races.民调显示，整体而言，共和党人依然压倒性地支持特朗普。他背书的多数候选人都在初选中获胜，只有少数几个州长竞选出现了引人注目的例外。今年4月，进步派候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德博士在安娜堡的一场竞选活动中发表演讲。他正在寻求密歇根州民主党联邦参议员提名。And the generational divide on foreign policy is stark: 53 percent of Republican voters under 45 disapprove of Mr. Trump’s handling of the Iran war, according to a New York Times/Siena poll conducted in May, compared with the 75 percent of older Republicans who approve.而共和党内部在外交政策上的代际分歧十分明显。根据《纽约时报》和锡耶纳学院5月进行的一项民调，45岁以下的共和党选民中，有53%不赞成特朗普处理伊朗战争的方式；相比之下，75%的年长共和党人表示支持。Republicans were forced to grapple with some of those questions beginning with Mr. Trump’s ascent in 2016. Over time, the party transformed into the president’s pro-tariff, anti-interventionist image, bringing into the Republican fold new voters who found those positions appealing.自2016年特朗普崛起以来，共和党人便不得不开始正视这类问题。随着时间推移，共和党逐渐转变为一个符合特朗普形象的政党——支持关税、反对军事干预，并吸纳了大量被这些立场吸引的新选民。That transformation made Mr. Trump’s support for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel and his military campaign in Gaza, and even more so the Trump administration’s decision to attack Iran, hard for some MAGA voters to swallow.对一些MAGA选民来说，这一转变使得特朗普对以色列总理内塔尼亚胡及其在加沙军事行动的支持——更不用说特朗普政府攻击伊朗的决定——让人难以接受。On the same day that the two democratic socialists won in New York City last week, Marjorie Taylor Greene, the former congresswoman and firebrand, announced that she was leaving the Republican Party because of her opposition to the Iran war. She followed the conservative media giant Tucker Carlson, who also left the party, citing the same reason.就在上周两位民主社会主义者在纽约市获胜的同一天，前国会众议员、以言辞激烈著称的玛乔丽·泰勒·格林宣布，自己因反对伊朗战争而退出共和党。在她之前，保守派媒体名人塔克·卡尔森也以同样理由退党。In April, Mr. Trump lumped Ms. Kelly with Mr. Carlson, both former Fox News hosts, and other right-wing podcasters who have been critical of the Iran war, calling them “nut jobs” and “troublemakers.” But Mr. Vance’s appearance on Ms. Kelly’s popular podcast to defend the administration’s preliminary peace deal with Iran showed that the White House was attuned to the divisions over foreign policy on the right.今年4月，特朗普将凯利和卡尔森（两人均为福克斯新闻前主持人）以及其他批评伊朗战争的右翼播客主持人归为“疯子”和“麻烦制造者”。但万斯出现在凯利的热门播客上为政府与伊朗的初步和平协议辩护，表明白宫注意到了右翼内部围绕外交政策上的分歧。For Ms. Kelly and Mr. Carlson, the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran represented a betrayal of Mr. Trump’s promises to avoid Middle East entanglements, and highlighted Israel’s exceptional status in American foreign policy. Even as Mr. Trump was turning away from traditional U.S. allies in Europe and Asia, he was doubling down on the partnership with Israel.对于凯利和卡尔森来说，美以对伊朗的战争背叛了特朗普避免卷入中东事务的承诺，也凸显了以色列在美国外交政策中的特殊地位。尽管特朗普正在疏远美国在欧洲和亚洲的传统盟友，他却进一步强化了与以色列的伙伴关系。The electoral consequences of the intraparty fight remain far from clear. Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky, the Iran war’s loudest Republican critic in the House, lost in May to a primary challenger who was heavily backed by pro-Israel donors.党内之争对选情的影响仍远未明朗。肯塔基州众议员托马斯·马西——众议院里对伊朗战争最响亮的共和党批评者——在5月的初选中输给了一位获得亲以色列捐款人大力支持的挑战者。The depth of the fissures in the two parties will not become fully apparent until after the midterms, depending on how candidates representing anti-interventionist views in both parties do — and perhaps not until 2028 presidential contenders start campaigning. A presidential election, particularly in a year with no incumbent, more naturally leads to discussions about big policy questions and America’s role in the world.两党内部裂痕究竟有多深恐怕要等到中期选举结束、看清两党反干涉主义代表人物的表现之后才会真正显现——甚至可能要等到2028年总统候选人开始竞选造势之时。毕竟，总统大选——尤其是在没有在任总统寻求连任的年份——往往更容易引发关于重大政策议题及美国全球角色的讨论。“The intraparty fractures are really going to be interesting to watch,” Robert Blizzard, a Republican pollster, said. “The MAGA America First noninterventionists and progressive Democrats are not going to vote the same way on Election Day, but they’re functionally aligned.”共和党民调专家罗伯特·布利扎德说：“观察这些党内裂痕会非常有意思。MAGA中的‘美国优先’反干预主义者和进步派民主党人在选举日不会投票给同一批候选人，但实际效果上他们站到了一边。”Robert Jimison对本文有报道贡献。Patricia Mazzei是《纽约时报》国内政治记者，常驻迈阿密。Anton Troianovski自华盛顿为《纽约时报》报道有关美国外交政策和国家安全的文章。他此前曾在莫斯科和柏林任驻外记者。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。