Sugar bulls eye a sweet breakoutSugar No. 11 CFDFOREXCOM:SUGARdavidscuttIt's decision time for sugar bulls. Mounting supply concerns, including a disappointing Indian monsoon and a heatwave across parts of Europe, have helped drive a sharp rebound in prices over recent days. But despite the improved backdrop, the rally has now stalled at the intersection of horizontal resistance at 14.883 cents per pound and downtrend from the March highs. That's now the immediate focus overhead. A convincing break above that resistance zone would strengthen the case that a more meaningful recovery is underway. If that happens, longs could be considered above with a tight stop beneath, targeting 15.25 cents per pound initially, followed by 15.52 cents, before the March 30 swing high at 16.18 cents per pound comes into view. The message from the oscillators is also becoming more supportive. RSI (14) has pushed back above 50 and continues to trend higher, while MACD has crossed above the signal line and is moving towards positive territory while continuing to diverge from it. At the very least, it suggests we may be in the early stages of a shift in momentum from the downside to the upside. It's not a definitive signal yet, but it's there. Of course, if the price can't break decisively above 14.883 cents per pound, another option would be to look at shorts, initially targeting the confluence of the 50 and 100-day moving averages before 14.363 cents per pound, a level that has repeatedly acted as both support and resistance in recent weeks. Beneath that, 13.68 cents per pound comes into focus before the double bottom around 13.44 cents per pound set earlier this year. Good luck! DS