Can Gold Hold the $4000 Mark This Time?GoldOANDA:XAUUSDKallie_GoldCan Gold Hold the $4000 Mark This Time? Current Time: Tuesday, June 30, 2026 Brothers, this is the third time this month that gold has approached the $4000 mark. I. Why Did It Fall Today? The main logic remains unchanged: The Fed's hawkish shift continues to suppress gold. The "rate hike path" established in Warsh's debut speech remains the biggest obstacle weighing on gold. Short-term triggering factors: The US and Iran agreed to cease mutual attacks, and negotiations resumed in Doha on Tuesday. Geopolitical risk premiums have further cleared, and institutional funds are still systematically withdrawing. II. Technical Analysis: Is $4000 Support or the Eve of a Breakout? Support: 4000 (psychological support) → 3970 → 3959 (previous low) Resistance: 4040-4050 → 4070-4080 → 4120 III. Two important things today: First, the US-Iran negotiations in Doha are ongoing or about to begin. If talks break down, safe-haven demand will increase, potentially leading to a gold price rebound; if talks succeed, geopolitical premiums will continue to clear, potentially accelerating gold prices towards 4000. Second, Warsh will appear alongside Lagarde and Bailey tonight. If Warsh continues to emphasize "no compromise until inflation targets are met," gold prices may suffer another blow. My main view: At the 4020 level, there are reasons to go long or short, but neither is absolutely certain. If you are currently out of the market, it's best to wait for the results of tonight's negotiations and speeches before taking any action. If US-Iran talks break down or Warsh takes a dovish stance, gold prices may rebound to 4060-4080; If negotiations proceed smoothly or Warsh remains hawkish, 4000 may truly be untenable. In short: observe more and act less around 4020, wait for a clear direction before taking action. Whether 4000 is broken or not will be revealed today.