AUD/USD: Institutions vs Retail — Who Will Be Right?AUD/USDOANDA:AUDUSDEdgeTradingJourneyAfter several weeks of sustained selling pressure, AUD/USD has finally reached a significant demand area around 0.6840, where buyers have started to react. While this has triggered a short-term bounce, I don't believe the broader trend has changed yet. From a technical perspective, the pair remains inside a well-defined bearish structure, characterized by lower highs and lower lows since the May peak. The recent rebound appears corrective rather than impulsive, and my focus remains on finding higher-probability short opportunities rather than chasing the current move higher. The key area I'm monitoring is the 0.7045–0.7090 supply zone. This region combines several technical confluences: Daily supply zone Descending trendline resistance Previous market structure Daily Fair Value Gap If price retraces into this area and prints bearish confirmation on the lower timeframes (Liquidity Sweep, CHoCH or BOS), I will be looking for short positions in line with the dominant trend. Retail Sentiment One of the strongest reasons behind my bearish bias comes from retail positioning. Current sentiment shows: 69% of traders are Long 31% are Short Retail traders continue buying the dip while price remains in a bearish market structure. Historically, extreme retail positioning tends to work as a contrarian indicator, which still supports further downside. Commitment of Traders The latest COT report reinforces this view. Large Speculators remain net short on the Australian Dollar, while positioning on the US Dollar Index continues to favor the upside. This combination suggests institutions are still betting on: weaker AUD stronger USD Until this changes, I prefer trading in the direction of institutional positioning. Seasonality July has historically been a positive month for AUD/USD, which increases the probability of a short-term recovery. However, seasonality alone rarely reverses a well-established trend. Instead, I see it as an additional reason to expect a corrective rally into resistance before the next bearish leg develops. Sell Zone: 0.7040 – 0.7075 Confirmation Required: Liquidity Sweep Change of Character (CHoCH) Break of Structure (BOS) Bearish engulfing or rejection Targets: 🎯 TP1: 0.6950 🎯 TP2: 0.6840 🎯 TP3: 0.6680