Indices:- U.S. equity index futures are in slight retreat after a strong finish to the first half of the year, yesterday saw another tech-led advance and fresh record highs for the Dow 30 (+0.3% to 52,319), with the S&P 500 (+0.8% to 7,499) and Nasdaq 100 (+1.7% to 30,276) enjoying healthier percentage gains; Treasury yields were in for a climb and so too in real terms, and market pricing (CME’s FedWatch) sees (via majority) a September Fed rate hikeStocks:- Shares of Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) (+2.6%) finished higher in what was another strong session for AI and semiconductor stocks, with AMD (+7.7%) and Intel (+6%) also rallying, and strong gains for AI infrastructure names like Astera Labs (+5.9%), KLA Corp (+8.4%), and Applied Materials (+4.1%)- Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares (+2%) climbed again; Deutsche Bank sees second-quarter deliveries likely to beat consensus by around 10,000 vehicles- Shares of SpaceX (+4.1%) closed higher and moved up in extended trading as it received an outperform initiation and $190 price target from Wedbush- AeroVironment (+18.8%) surged after the drone maker comfortably beat earnings and revenue expectations- Red session for both Morgan Stanley (-1.3%) and Goldman Sachs (-1.6%) hit by a downgrade to underperform out of Oppenheimer, who also downgraded Citi (-1.8%) and Bank of America (-1.6%) from outperform to perform- After the close, Nike (NYSE:NKE) (-2.5% AH) fell in extended trading despite beating expectations as investors focused on a 12% decline in Greater China sales, fall in Nike Direct sales, and earnings beat includes tariff refund benefit- Meme stock movers: Beyond Meat (+5.8%), Kohl’s (-4%), AMC (-6.6%), Nokia (+2%), Avis (-4.7%)- Crypto stocks mostly end lower: Coinbase (-3.6%), MicroStrategy (-6.2%), Mara Holdings (-1%), Gemini Space Station (+0.7%), Bullish (-1.1%), Circle Internet Group (-17.6%)Commodities:- Gold remains under heavy pressure, falling below $4,000 again and still within its bear channel with the 100-day MA crossing below the 200-day as well, as rising real yields do its part in testing the non-yielding precious metal’s value; with silver back in the $57s underperforming this morning and keeping the gold/silver ratio near 69- Oil prices (WTI) hold below $70; report Iran met with mediators not the U.S. envoys directly, latter had “very positive” talks according to one official; API’s weekly energy inventory readings show a drawdown for oil (-6.072m barrels) and so too for gasoline (-2.106m), while there was a build in distillates (+2.9m)FX/Central Banks/Crypto:- Bitcoin briefly falls below $58K before partially recovering after failing to correlate with what were positive tech moves on the equities front, as ETF outflows, high yields and a negative reaction to Strategy’s latest plan the latest red factors, and where technical traders are noting whether its previous support is now the new resistance; Ether was down by a similar percentage yesterday and back below $1.6K, with the Ethereum/Bitcoin ration sticking to the 0.026s for now- US Dollar Index hovers around 101 with FX traders alert for any yen intervention as USD/JPY breaches a fresh four-decade high and well into the 162s- Federal Reserve’s Hammack that insatiable AI infrastructure demand could prove inflationary and, if price pressures persist, higher interest rates may be needed to return inflation to target- European Central Bank’s Lane that elevated oil prices, even after their recent retreat, will continue feeding inflation for some time, while Nagel says the energy shock remains embedded in the economy and inflation is likely to stay significantly above target despite lower crude prices- Bank of England’s Governor Bailey that there’s no urgency to adjust interest rates and the central bank can afford to wait as inflation gradually returns toward target- Bank of Japan’s new board member Sato says policymakers must remain vigilant over the weak yen’s impact on underlying inflationCapital.com Client Sentiment:- Indices: Shifts to the middle in the Nasdaq 100 (from a previous heavy buy 68%) following the consecutive climb, with majority long sentiment also dropping in the Dow 30 (56% from 62% at the start of the week) and Russell 2000 (55% from 58%); elsewhere falls out of heavy buy in the DAX 40 (57% from 69%) and Nikkei 225 (60% from 69%) while moves further into extreme long territory in the ASX 200 (87% from 85%)- Commodities: Heavy buy but a notch lower in gold (73% from 74%) and a notch lower in silver as well (but at 85% still extreme long); WTI heavy buy but falls (to 70% from 73%)- FX: Majority buy but dropping in EUR/USD (58% from 63%) following the lift at the start of this week giving a chance for fresher longs to close out, but remain heavy buy in GBP/USD (66% from 68%) and an opposite heavy sell and rising in USD/JPY (73% from 71%) as it moves further into the 162 handleData:- U.S. Chicago PMI for June worsens to 56.7 even if a slight beat; CB’s consumer confidence for the same month at 91.2, it too failing to match forecasts; job openings (JOLTS) in May hold at 7.59m instead of falling; home prices in April contract 0.1% m/m (FHFA), up 1.1% y/y (S&P/CS)- German retail sales rise 1.1% m/m in May, comfortably above expectations following April’s decline; import prices for the same month up again, this time by 0.7% m/m and takes the y/y reading to 6.8%; unemployment rate holds at 6.3%; preliminary CPI in June lighter than anticipated falling 0.3% m/m and taking the y/y figure to 2.3% from a previous 2.6%- UK Q1 GDP 0.6% q/q, y/y up 0.9%- Australian manufacturing PMI (S&P Global) for June slightly above forecast at 51.5- Japanese manufacturing PMI (Jibun) a slight miss at 54.8; Tankan’s Q2 readings nearly all improve and beat forecasts- Chinese manufacturing PMI (RatingDog) 51.7 as expectedToday:- U.S. ADP’s non-farm estimate (4:15 pm Dubai time), mortgage applications (3 pm), ISM’s manufacturing PMI (6 pm), EIA’s weekly energy inventory estimates (6:30 pm)- Chiefs of the key central banks to participate in a panel, including Fed Chairman Warsh- Manufacturing PMIs out of the EZ (12 pm) and UK (12:30 pm); EZ preliminary pricing (1 pm)