Skip to navigationSkip to main contentSkip to right columnADVERTISEMENTNeil Patel, The Motley FoolSun, July 5, 2026 at 12:45 PM GMT+2 3 min readAlthough there has been heightened volatility recently, the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ) has been a strong performer, producing a fantastic total return of 111% in the past five years (as of July 2). The market is clearly enamored with innovative businesses that benefit from various secular trends, which can lead to outsize growth potential in the future.Should you buy this exchange-traded fund (ETF) while technology stocks are still near all-time highs? Here's how investors should view this situation.Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »Image source: Getty Images.Listen to the bear caseAfter such a phenomenal performance, there are very real fears that the Invesco QQQ Trust is expensive. The weighted-average price-to-earnings ratio of the ETF is 36.5. That's certainly not cheap, as it reflects the market's high expectations. All else equal, a higher starting valuation reduces upside potential and raises the downside. Companies must execute extremely well with less room for error.Another critique rests fully on the artificial intelligence (AI) trade. Besides Apple, four of the QQQ's top five positions, Nvidia, Micron, Microsoft, and Amazon, are heavily involved in or exposed to the AI spending boom, an exciting but unproven technology.The return on all this investment is a big unknown variable. It's arguably the most important topic that the market and economy face today.If the payoff is a disappointment, it could create a ripple shock that hits the valuations of all these stocks. This would drag down the entire ETF.A longer time horizon solves the problemYou might be worried about the QQQ's valuation leading to a potential AI bubble bursting. This high-profile concern is valid. However, no one knows for sure whether it will cause any pain in the near term. If it does lead to declining stock prices, the timing is also a big question mark.The best investors avoid this guessing game. The only way to simultaneously be willing to accept the bear case, while still believing in the QQQ's bull thesis -- that AI and other technological trends will result in higher earnings power in the future for these companies -- is to simply extend your time horizon. Being optimistic about the next decade and beyond, but being patient and disciplined with your mental approach, is perhaps the biggest competitive advantage any individual investor can obtain.Terms and Privacy PolicyEU DSA contactPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore Info