Nasdaq 100: Coiled beneath the highs

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Nasdaq 100: Coiled beneath the highsUS Tech 100 CFDFOREXCOM:NAS100FOREXcomOur Nasdaq 100 contract has spent the past month consolidating the mammoth bull run from late March through to early June, trading within what resembles a symmetrical triangle. Momentum has shifted back neutral, with RSI (14) drifting back to 50 with MACD sitting beneath its signal line after crossing below in early June. While symmetrical triangles imply two-way directional risk, the preceding trend provides important context. It follows a powerful rally that lifted the price above all the key medium- and long-term moving averages, all of which continue to slope higher. More recently, every test of the rising 50-day moving average has been bought. I suspect this is a consolidation of the earlier bull move that will ultimately give way to an upside breakout. If so, a sustained break above triangle resistance would pave the way for a retest of the record high at 30,756, and potentially fresh highs beyond. For now, patience is warranted. I'd rather see price confirm my bullish bias with a sustained break of triangle resistance than try to anticipate the move. On the downside, initial support comes from the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the March-June rally at 28,875, a level that held when tested in late June. Below that, the lower boundary of the triangle near 28,200 becomes the next area to watch. Good luck! DS