Skip to navigationSkip to main contentSkip to right columnAnand SinhaSun, July 5, 2026 at 3:30 PM GMT+2 3 min readAs the first half of 2026 ended, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading slightly above $62,500. The leading cryptocurrency is trading 50% lower than the all-time high (ATH) of $126,080 that it hit on Oct. 6, 2025.In fact, June 2026 saw the U.S. spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tied to Bitcoin post the worst performance since their launch. The month witnessed an outflow of more than $4.50 billion.The total crypto market cap declined to $2.2 trillion at press time, nearly half of the $4.3 trillion cap at the peak in early October last year.Amidst this chaos, Fidelity released a report on June 29, "What might end the crypto winter?" The asset manager highlighted five factors that could bring an end to the crypto winter.Related: Bitcoin sinks lower as traders brace for $45,0004-year cycleBitcoin halving is an event in which the mining reward is halved every four years. The process reduces new Bitcoin supply entering circulation so that the cryptocurrency remains a scare asset.Throughout most of its history, bitcoin has tended to form both bull market tops and bear market bottoms roughly four years apart. If this pattern were to continue, it could mean the current bear market will bottom some time around November 2026, the asset manager said.As per Fidelity, if Bitcoin's demand remains steady or grows against low supply, its price can surge. But these four-year cycles should be studied for macro analysis, not exact trade timing, the firm cautioned.Regulatory clarityFidelity thinks bull markets necessitate regulatory clarity. For instance, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January, giving a major boost to the cryptocurrency.The asset manager is now fixated on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, which, if enacted into law, can unlock activity that is held back by legal uncertainty.Popular on TheStreet Roundtable: