Gold will fall againGold / U.S. DollarFOREXCOM:XAUUSDGoldTrader_X 📊 Gold Trading Strategy | Geopolitical Risk Supports Gold, But Fed Policy Remains the Key Driver Hello everyone, welcome back to my TradingView community! 👋 The market always provides opportunities, but successful trading requires a clear strategy, patience, and strict risk management. Today we will analyze the latest gold price movement from both fundamental and technical perspectives and look for potential trading opportunities. 🌍 Gold Fundamental Analysis Gold prices rose more than 1% on Thursday, with spot gold closing near $4,123/oz. The main reason behind the rebound was: ✅ Short-term bargain buying after gold dropped to a one-week low ✅ Renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East ✅ Safe-haven demand returning to the market After the US carried out strikes against Iran, tensions increased as Iran responded with attacks on US infrastructure in nearby Gulf countries, putting the fragile ceasefire under pressure. This geopolitical uncertainty provided short-term support for gold prices. ⚠️ However, the impact of geopolitical risk on gold is not always straightforward The traditional logic of: “War → Safe-haven demand → Gold rises” has become more complicated. The current market transmission mechanism is: 🔥 Geopolitical conflict ⬇️ 🛢️ Higher oil prices ⬇️ 📈 Higher inflation expectations ⬇️ 🏦 Stronger Fed tightening expectations ⬇️ 📉 Pressure on non-yielding assets like gold This explains why gold has sometimes struggled despite rising geopolitical tensions. 📌 Fed Policy Remains the Main Market Driver Recently, the market focus has shifted back to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path. Current market pricing shows: September rate hike probability remains elevated Traders are closely watching Fed officials’ comments The June FOMC meeting minutes showed continued concerns about inflation Some Fed officials believe further tightening may still be necessary if inflation remains persistent. However, New York Fed President Williams recently indicated that energy prices are unlikely to remain elevated throughout the rest of the year, which helped ease concerns about a renewed inflation surge. This provided some temporary support for gold’s rebound. 📈 Gold Technical Analysis Daily Chart Overview On Thursday: Gold opened near 4077 Price initially tested the 4090 resistance area, then pulled back toward 4054, before recovering strongly. During the US session: 🔥 Gold broke above 4090 🔥 Stabilized above the 4100 level 🔥 Reached a high near 4138 The daily candle closed with: ✅ A bullish candle ✅ Long lower shadow ✅ Evidence of buying support at lower levels From the weekly perspective: Gold has experienced several days of decline followed by a rebound. The bearish momentum has slowed, but the market has not yet entered a strong bullish trend. Current structure: Low-level consolidation + technical rebound 📊 Short-Term Technical Structure 4-Hour Chart Gold is currently forming a potential: 🔻 Small double-top structure around 4137-4138 Key support: 🟢 4090-4095 area A break below this zone could bring further downside pressure. 1-Hour Chart The previous pullback low around: 4090-4095 is the short-term support and trend conversion area. Key resistance: 🔥 4140-4145 If gold fails to break above this zone, sellers may regain control. 🔥 Today's Gold Trading Plan Current market view: 📌 Short-term rebound 📌 Medium-term still under pressure 📌 Range trading remains the preferred strategy We focus on: Selling rallies + buying key support areas 🔴 Short Setup (Main Strategy) Sell Gold near: 4130-4140 area Stop Loss: ⬆️ 4160 Targets: 🎯 4090-4070 Break below: 🎯 4050 🟢 Long Setup (Secondary Strategy) If gold drops toward: 4020-4050 support zone Look for potential buying opportunities. Risk must be controlled with proper stop loss management. 📌 Key Levels For Today Resistance: 🔴 4130-4145 🔴 4160 Support: 🟢 4090-4100 🟢 4050 🟢 4020-4000 💬 Trading Community Message Remember: The market does not reward traders who chase every movement. The best opportunities come from waiting patiently at important levels. Control your risk, protect your capital, and let the market come to you. If you agree with this analysis: 👍 Like this idea ⭐ Follow my TradingView profile 💬 Share your own market view in the comments Let’s discuss gold trends and trading opportunities together. Wishing everyone successful trading and consistent profits! 🤝📈 Trade smart. Trade with discipline. 🚀