Indices:- U.S. equity index futures are little changed after a positive session driven by strength in semiconductor stocks and easing oil prices as hopes for renewed U.S.-Iran negotiations improved sentiment; the S&P 500 (+0.8% to 7,543), Nasdaq 100 (+1.6% to 29,727), and Dow 30 (+0.3% to 52,487) all finished higher; Treasury yields fell back from intraweek highs as energy prices dropped and followed a strong 30-year auction, but are still up for the week (and higher in real terms as well); market pricing (CME’s FedWatch) expects (via majority) a Fed rate hike in September but moves away from what was roughly a coin toss on a second hike in DecemberStocks:- Shares of Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) (-0.7%) closed lower but it was a session of notable strength for the semiconductor sphere in general, with AMD (+5.7%), Intel (+2.1%), and so too Micron (NASDAQ:MU) (+4.5%) closing higher, the latter planning to invest up to $3bn to “strengthen the U.S. semiconductor supply-chain ecosystem”- Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares (+3.2%) closed higher, with SpaceX (+2.6%) also up and closing above $152 reversing a small portion of recent losses, though among Big Tech it was Meta (NASDAQ:META) (+4.7%) enjoying the largest percentage gain during the session and gaining a further 1.3% in extended trading following its Muse Spark 1.1 AI model release, a report it plans to put AI chip into production in September, and ARK invest disclosing it bought shares- Salesforce (-2.4%) fell after KeyBanc downgraded the stock to sector weight, and so too Stellantis (-0.4%) down to neutral from overweight out of JPMorgan- PepsiCo (NASDAQ:PEP) (-3.3%) shares in retreat as although it beat on revenue, it missed on earnings, with Costco (-4.2%) also down on a slower 8.8% y/y sales gain for June- Tough session for shares of AstraZeneca (-5.7%) after its late-stage clinical trial miss for Wainua, its heart drug- Paramount (-4.3%) in retreat suffering a downgrade to sell out of Arete as well as a report several U.S. states plan to file an antitrust suit over its WBD acquisition- Meme stock movers: Kohl’s (+2.6%), GoPro (+4%), Opendoor (+10.7%), BlackBerry (+2.9%), Nokia (+8%), Avis (+4.2%)- Crypto stocks: Coinbase (-0.6%), Mara Holdings (+10%), Gemini Space Station (+0.7%), Bullish (-2.8%), Circle Internet Group (-1.7%)Commodities:- Rebound off intraweek lows for gold getting back above $4.1K and nearing the upper end of its bull channel as yields fell back (though still held in real terms) and the dollar weakened on the FX front, while silver got back above $60 with its outperformance helping take the gold/silver ratio back into the 68s- Oil prices (WTI) retreated to $72 undoing Wednesday’s rally but still up over 5% so far this week, as prices eased on a report Washington and Tehran will engage in “technical talks” despite President Trump declaring the interim agreement over, later saying that Iran wants to make a deal and “I don’t know” whether the two are going back to full conflictFX/Central Banks/Crypto:- Bitcoin recovers to get back near $64K as yields and energy prices fell back a bit, with a clearer move beyond its long-term support level required to put technical bull traders at ease, while Ether underperformed yesterday as it remained above $1.7K taking the Ethereum/Bitcoin ratio briefly into the 0.028s; small ETF outflows for both crypto majors after a brief period of inflows- US Dollar Index weakened further within the 100 handle as energy prices fell back and helped energy-exposed currencies in the process, with USD/JPY sliding 0.6% into the 161s as Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama said they are seeking to encourage its Government Pension Investment Fund to raise their holdings in Japanese assets- Federal Reserve’s Williams that inflation is still too high with AI his main inflation concern as he expects a retreat in energy prices; Chairman Warsh names the experts (of outsiders) for his five task forces- European Central Bank’s Lagarde that she is not a candidate for French president but will advocate for European values; minutes from the central bank’s latest meeting where they raised rates show members “assessed that the risks to the growth outlook were to the downside” and that “risks to the inflation outlook were to the upside”- Bank of England’s Pill that interest rates will need to rise to keep inflation pressures contained, expressing concern that the economy has been running hotter than supply-side capacityCapital.com Client Sentiment:- Indices: Long bias drops following the gains in the S&P 500 (heavy buy 65% from a heavier 69% yesterday), Dow 30 (slight buy 54% from 64%), Nasdaq 100 (63% from 65%) and Russell 2000 (64% from 70%); similar story occurred in the Nikkei 225 (65% from 72%) and ASX 200 (84% from 86%) while the pullback in the FTSE 100 takes long sentiment to just shy of extreme buy territory (77% from 75%)- Commodities: Heavy buy but falls again in gold (to 67% from 72% yesterday) and a couple notches lower in silver (84% from 86%) following the lift off the lows, with the pullback in WTI taking sentiment closer to extreme buy territory (76% from 73%)- FX: Edges closer to the middle in GBP/USD (slight buy 53% from 55%) as the pair experienced another climb, while the pullback in USD/JPY saw sell bias actually rise a notch (to a heavier 69% from 68% yesterday), and shifts in USD/CAD (from a slight sell 51% to a majority buy 55%)Data:- U.S. weekly initial jobless claims 215K, slightly better than anticipated, but continuing claims worsen to 1.814m; existing home sales in June down 2.4% m/m- Japanese PPI up 0.4% m/m in June and sees the y/y reading reach 7.1%Today:- U.S. rig count data out of Baker Hughes (9 pm Dubai time), German CPI (10 am), and Canadian labor data (4:30 pm)o Earnings from Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL)o SK Hynix (NASDAQ:SKHYV), the second most valuable company in South Korea, expected to begin trading on the Nasdaq, its ADRs priced at $149