BTCUSD- One Chart, Two Possible ScenariosBitcoin all time history indexINDEX:BTCUSDArthurshOn this 4H chart, I’m outlining two potential scenarios for Bitcoin’s short-to-mid-term price action. For about a week, Bitcoin has been consolidating within a narrow range while reclaiming the 200 moving average on the 4-hour chart. This marks the first time price has traded above this MA since mid-May, making it a bullish development on its own. The $64,400–$66,000 area remains a strong resistance zone (highlighted by the red rectangle on the chart). To build enough momentum for a breakout, I expect Bitcoin to continue consolidating in a triangle-like pattern over the coming days. The direction of the eventual breakout will likely be driven by several key catalysts: geopolitical developments, next week's major macroeconomic releases (CPI and PPI), and the ongoing rotation of capital out of the AI trade and into other sectors. Bullish scenario - After a few more days of consolidation, Bitcoin breaks out of the current consolidation pattern, opening the door for a move toward the next major resistance zone at $72,000–$74,000. This area also aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of the latest move, adding further significance to this resistance zone. At that area, price will likely face a key decision point: either continue higher after another period of consolidation, or face a strong rejection that could potentially lead to the formation of a head and shoulders pattern. Bearish scenario - Negative geopolitical developments or weaker-than-expected macroeconomic data trigger a breakdown below the current consolidation pattern, potentially sending Bitcoin toward the well-established support zone at $57,600–$60,000. At that area, I expect Bitcoin to enter another consolidation phase, which eventually resolve with a breakdown below this support zone and triggers another leg lower.