Weekly Review (Jul 13-17): GBP, EUR, JPY, Indices, Gold, Silver GBP/USDOANDA:GBPUSDConfluxMethodWeekly review for July 13-17. Not signals, just how I read the tape with the Conflux Method: structure, order flow and options data. Context: the two events that matter are the US CPI on Tuesday and Warsh's testimony to Congress right after, at 10:00 on the 14th. I rate his speech as the second biggest event of the week after CPI, and almost equal in weight, because he speaks right after the inflation data. So Tuesday won't just be CPI shaking the market, it'll be Warsh's words too: sharp moves on the print, and more on his comments. That sets a move that runs into August 7. Inflation should rise one way or another, and how deep the move on the assets goes depends on the number. Step to 4.5% or more and a September hike gets priced at 100%, dollar up. Print 4% or less and the dollar falls with the other assets up against it. The moves should be good. GBPUSD (main chart above) They couldn't do anything I was expecting, and buys off the nearest zones are still in question, let's see how they open Monday. The weekly zone above sat cleanly on top of the monthly zone, but if the euro is traded down, the pound can't go up on its own. A drop to 1.2915 is too big, because the euro has strong support at 1.1185 on spot, so the run-up for the decline is too big, and the pound looks a bit stronger than the euro. So they could drop to 1.3250 and then go into a correction. In short, no clear picture on the move. Options didn't highlight anything worthwhile either; synthetic was going in but nothing large. 6EU2026 (EUR) On the euro options one participant and one portfolio showed up. Let's see how they open Monday, but in the Asia session one option is to try sells off the zone where P/F, Renko, Key and Limit Driver all lined up, with a move to the zones below, and from there look at buys. A strangle is open here as an expectation into August 7, and below it a hedge and an expectation of a strangle and a straddle. Given how the bulls have been fighting the bears at one point for two weeks and how tightly the bears hold it back from rising, the spring will uncoil very fast. 6JU2026 / 6JZ2026 (JPY) I'm watching these strangles with puts in the weekly zone, so the yen gets poured down there, and that's where the Bank of Japan and the US Treasury step in together with interventions and carry everyone up to these zones. Mapped to spot it's 165 and 167 again, and the main thing is that on Monday they don't spill it to 158–159 but hold it into the CPI, and then on Warsh, or on Wednesday morning after the clearing, you can carry the bears out. For now we keep watching the plan play out. NQ1! (NQ) I'll still think about buying back, since the CPI is on Tuesday, though it's exactly on that they could spill it to 29530. But a beautiful butterfly went in, and the weekly zone lined up there too, so you can calmly short there. As a target it looks great too. ESU2026 (S&P 500) Similar situation here, and a calendar butterfly is in on the 7850 strike, so on a push there I'll short. On buys I'll think it over tomorrow after the open. GCZ2026 / GCV2026 (Gold) They're now trying to buy it back well and we won't argue with that, though I'd like to buy back lower. At the open I'll look at the exit; if they gap to 4230 I'll look at sells there, then a buy back toward 4300. Don't forget the active rollover to the December contract has begun; that zone is interesting as a target and to take profit with counter-sells. Schematically, at the open that's the move I'll be interested in through the end of the week. But the main thing is how they open tomorrow; if they go for a new low, I won't be buying back. Those options showed up again too: a butterfly on the October contract, the far wing being the most interesting one to work. SIU2026 (Silver) No ideas for now, options didn't highlight anything, need to watch the open. The move up came off the percentage zone but a crooked one; gold moved more impulsively, here there's no liquidity at all. So if from the open they go up with a break of 62, on the pullback I'll look at buys off 60.210, and off the upper ones I'll short, especially off the weekly zone where a lot has converged at one point. On these zones I'll also try sells, with a pullback to 60.21 as the reference. And on a spill from the open, I get into the market not before 52.80 or 52. CLU2026 (WTI) I closed oil with a breakeven fixing but they turned it further down. Iran is still playing games with the US. For now oil is falling, but the reserves will soon show everyone their bottom and they'll start refilling them urgently, and without the opening of Hormuz, on refilling the reserves the price gets carried up cheerfully. For me right now the long-running range for a couple of months is 59–82.50. The price could also hang in the 69–74 balance until the next Iran events, without starting a move down or up to the weekly zones, and that probability is very high; the one hope is the US CPI, but oil doesn't depend much on inflation, rather inflation depends on oil, and very strongly. These are zones and scenarios I'm watching, not a call to trade. Let price come to your levels and let the reads converge first. Educational only, not investment advice. Trading carries a high risk of capital loss. Past results don't guarantee future performance. #ConfluxMethod #trading #futures #options #forex #gold #silver #crudeoil #orderflow