$WTI OIL - another ESCALATION leads to a 3-4% jump in price.West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil cashBLACKBULL:WTIColdBloodedCharterAnd another escalation. Weekend exchange of "courtesies" between the U.S. and Iran, with Iran claiming it has closed the Strait of Hormuz. As expected, WTI reacted immediately on markets that trade 24/7 (I use MEXC for that). Oil jumped several percent in a matter of hours and is now testing the $73+ area, right at the declining 200 MA. For many traders, that's the line separating a bull market from a bear market. So this is a pivotal moment. Either tensions cool down quickly and the Wyckoff distribution scenario continues toward $63, which I see as the upper end of the "peace-time" pricing range (marked on my chart as the upper boundary of the accumulation range), or the Strait closure is confirmed and we move further up the escalation ladder. Right now, I think the second scenario looks more likely. From a technical perspective, this rally could simply be a corrective move within the broader decline - possibly Elliott Wave 4 after a strong Wave 3. If that's the case, the next upside targets would be around $81.4 and then $85-86. The first scenario would likely lead to a test of the breakaway gap that formed about a month ago when the conflict appeared to be winding down. That gap marked the rebound zone almost perfectly. I'm particularly interested in how price reacts around the second major gap on the chart, which is a different type of gap altogether. A scenario I consider very realistic - and unfortunately very negative for most risk assets - is several more days of escalation followed by announcements of negotiations. We've seen this pattern repeat many times before. Persistently high oil prices could be especially painful for the semiconductor sector, which, in my view, is most likely in a Wyckoff distribution phase. Many semiconductor charts are starting to resemble dead cat bounces rather than the beginning of new uptrends. Add a bullish DXY to the mix, and the macro backdrop starts looking increasingly cloudy. Unfortunately, this is one of those periods when following the news actually matters. My plan for the new week is simple: stay on top of the headlines and keep looking for high-quality dips on the charts. 👽💙