纪思道2026年7月9日Our 250th birthday party seemed to me as divisive, troubled and angst-ridden as America itself.在我看来，我们的250周年生日派对就像美国自身一样，充满了分歧、困扰和焦虑。The evacuation of crowds from the Washington Mall because of extreme weather captured the moment: President Trump tries to defy and deny natural forces of climate change even as they shape our lives. Under Trump, America is doubling down on fossil fuels and allowing China to dominate green energy technologies that will be central to the 21st-century economy. Myopia squared and not a good omen.华盛顿国家广场的民众因极端天气而被疏散，这一幕精准地捕捉到了当下的境况：特朗普总统试图对抗并否认气候变化的自然力量，尽管这些力量正在塑造着我们的生活。在特朗普的领导下，美国正在加倍押注化石燃料，并任由中国在绿能技术领域占据主导地位，而这些技术将成为21世纪经济的核心。这是双重的目光短浅，绝非好兆头。In that sense, our unsettled birthday makes me ponder the fates of some places I’ve visited over the years.从这个意义上说，我们这个动荡的生日让我开始思考我这些年来造访过的一些地方的命运。Kaifeng is today a sleepy Chinese city on the Yellow River, but a millennium ago it was probably the most important place in the world. It was then China’s capital and was crowded with a population of about one million. (London’s population was then about 15,000.)今天的开封是黄河边上一座寂静的中国城市，但在千年前，它大概是世界上最重要的地方。当时它是中国的首都，聚集了大约100万的人口。（而当时的伦敦人口仅有1.5万人左右。）Other contenders for global leadership in the year 1000 were the Byzantine Empire based in Constantinople, the Abbasid caliphate based in Baghdad and the Ghaznavid Empire in West Asia, headquartered in what is now Ghazni, Afghanistan. None were able to adapt and preserve themselves.在公元1000年，其他角逐全球领导地位的竞争者还包括以君士坦丁堡为国都的拜占庭帝国、以巴格达为国都的阿拔斯王朝，以及地处西亚、定都于今阿富汗加兹尼的加兹尼王朝。然而，没有一个政权能够适应并长存下来。So I wonder: Can the United States hold on? Will the United States still be vibrant on our 500th birthday? Or will we go the way of Byzantium and the Abbasids?于是我不禁在想：美国能坚持下去吗？在我们的500岁生日时，美国是否依然充满活力？还是说，我们会走上拜占庭和阿拔斯王朝的老路？Our vulnerabilities are obvious, with two-thirds of Americans saying we’re “pretty seriously off on the wrong track.”我们的脆弱性是显而易见的，三分之二的美国人表示我们“正严重偏离正确的轨道”。I worry in particular that we are undermining the tripartite approach that has made the United States dominant, starting with heavy investments in human capital such as education. The United States was a world leader in mass education in the 19th and 20th centuries, but we now rank ninth in reading, 16th in science and 34th in math, according to the PISA global ranking of student test scores.我尤其担心我们正在削弱让美国处于主导地位的一种三管齐下的策略，首先是对教育等人力资本的巨额投资。美国在19和20世纪曾是大众教育的全球领跑者，但根据PISA全球学生测试成绩排名，我们现在的阅读排名第九、科学排名第16、数学排名第34。Human capital is also about our health and well-being, and that likewise is discouraging: The United States now ranks 61st in life expectancy globally, according to the World Bank.人力资本也关乎我们的健康和福祉，而这同样令人沮丧：根据世界银行的数据，美国目前在全球人均寿命排名中位列第61位。A second prong of America’s growth path was the welcome we (inconsistently and imperfectly) at times offered immigrants. When my father was on a ship in New York Harbor, arriving as a refugee in 1952, a Boston woman next to him on the deck welcomed him as a “young American.” He was awed that he — a refugee who couldn’t even speak English — was being hailed as an American before he even set foot on American soil.美国增长路径的第二个支柱是我们（虽然断断续续且并不完美地）有时向移民敞开的欢迎怀抱。1952年，当我的父亲坐在纽约港的一艘船上，作为难民抵达美国时，甲板上站在他身边的一位波士顿女性欢迎他这位“年轻的美国人”。他当时惊呆了——自己一个甚至连英语都不会说的难民，在还没踏上美国土地之前，就已经被欢呼接纳为一名美国人了。For now, that welcome mat has mostly been removed (except perhaps for white “refugees” from South Africa). The number of foreign graduate students studying at American universities last fall fell 12 percent from the year before, and further declines are expected.如今，这条欢迎的红毯大体上已被撤去（或许来自南非的白人“难民”除外）。去年秋天在美国大学就读的外国研究生人数较前年下降了12%，预计还会进一步下降。The third element of America’s growth formula — a reliance on free markets — remains largely intact, at least by international standards. But inequality appears to have soared since 1980, and there’s evidence that while some inequality is necessary for growth, too much dampens it. The dollar remains overwhelmingly the world’s currency but has weakened, and its supremacy is being challenged at the edges.美国增长公式的第三个要素——对自由市场的依赖——大体上依然完好，至少按国际标准来看是这样。但自1980年以来，不平等现象似乎急剧飙升，并且有证据表明，虽然某种程度的不平等对增长是必要的，但过度不平等则会抑制增长。美元绝大多数时候依然是全球核心货币，但已经走弱，其霸权地位正在一些边缘地带受到挑战。And it’s more than that.而且，还不仅仅是这些。“What do we mean by the Revolution?” John Adams asked in an 1815 letter to Thomas Jefferson. He answered his own question, saying that the revolution was not a war but rather something that unfolded “in the minds of the people.”“我们所说的革命到底是指什么？”约翰·亚当斯在1815年致托马斯·杰斐逊的信中问道。他回答了自己的问题，称革命并不是一场战争，而是某种“在人们心中”展开的过程。Yes! True, our animating ideas — of equality, of opportunity, of openness to immigration — were in part rhetorical flourishes, for they don’t explain Jim Crow, the Chinese Exclusion Acts or tight curbs on Jewish immigration. But these ideas were aspirational, and over the centuries they inspired real progress. Now I fear we’ve retreated even from the aspirations.确实如此！诚然，我们那些激励人心的核心理念——平等、机遇、对移民的开放——在一定程度上只是华丽的辞令，因为它们无法解释吉姆·克劳法、排华法案或对犹太移民的严厉限制。但这些理念具有感召力，并在几个世纪中激发了真正的进步。如今，我担心我们甚至对这些的向往都已经消退。As I see it, we’ve lost two wars in the past half-dozen years — one against the Afghan Taliban and one against Iran just this year — not to mention last year losing a trade war with China. We may be retreating from NATO and from efforts to buttress Taiwan.在我看来，我们在过去六年中打输了两场战争——一场是对阿富汗塔利班，一场是就在今年对伊朗，更不用说去年还输掉了与中国的贸易战。我们可能会撤出北约，不再协助台湾增强其防御。Our position — divided at home and weakening abroad — is reminiscent of the decline of great powers in the past, not just the Abbasids and Ghaznavids but also Spain in 1588 and Britain in the late 19th century.我们现在的处境——国内四分五裂，国外影响力走弱——让人联想到历史上大国的衰落，不仅是阿拔斯王朝和加兹尼王朝，还有1588年的西班牙和19世纪末的英国。Still, for all the uncertainties about our trajectory, I think I’m a bit more optimistic than many of my fellow Americans.尽管我们的发展轨迹充满了诸多不确定性，但我认为自己比许多美国同胞还是要乐观一点。Maybe that’s because my wife and I were in small-town America — Ashland, Ore., for a theater festival — on July 4. Ashland’s annual Independence Day parade was an uplifting celebration that included free American flags and Popsicles, a military flyover and parade participants calling for universal health care and welcoming immigrants. Far from the toxicity of Washington, D.C., it captured all the contradictions and beauty of our country.也许是因为在7月4日那天，我和我的妻子正在美国的一座小镇——俄勒冈州的阿什兰——参加一场戏剧节。阿什兰一年一度的独立日游行是一场令人振奋的庆祝活动，其中包括免费发放的美国国旗和冰棒、军机飞越、以及游行参与者呼吁普及全民医疗和欢迎移民。它远离华盛顿的政治之毒，捕捉到了我们国家所有的矛盾与美丽。My very guarded optimism about America’s long-run prospects is based on three factors:我对美国长期前景持有非常谨慎的乐观，这基于以下三个因素：First, we appear to have maintained an edge (partly by importing scientists) in technology, which since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution has been a driver of progress and global leadership. Then it was the steam engine and spinning jenny. Now it is artificial intelligence, materials science and biotechnology. And our technological sophistication pairs well with the world’s deepest financial markets, with American stocks accounting for roughly two-thirds of global stock value, compared with less than 30 percent in 1988.首先，我们似乎在技术上保持了优势（部分是通过引进科学家），自工业革命开始以来，技术一直是进步和全球领导地位的驱动力。那时是蒸汽机和珍妮纺纱机。现在则是人工智能、材料科学和生物技术。我们的技术成熟度与全球最深厚的金融市场完美契合，美国股票占全球股票价值的大约三分之二，而在1988年这一比例还不足30%。Second, other nations have their own problems. Our principal competitor for now is China, which has enormous strengths but also is aging fast and declining in population and is led by an aging dictator.其次，其他国家也有它们自己的问题。我们目前的主要竞争对手是中国，它拥有巨大的实力，但也面临着快速老龄化、人口下降，并且由一位年迈的独裁者领导。Third, prophecies of American decline are nothing new. “My hopes of the long continuance of this Union are extinct,” John Quincy Adams wrote in 1834, during a crisis in South Carolina. In the 1980s and ’90s, when I was a foreign correspondent in Asia, it was “Japan as No. 1,” and in the 2000s experts debated in which year China’s economy would surpass America’s. Now some believe that may never happen. And the United States has not seen the collapse of population growth that many other industrial countries have. Our more youthful population, partly because of immigration, confers vitality and vigor.第三，美国衰落的预言并不是什么新鲜事。“我对这个联邦长期延续的希望已经破灭，”约翰·昆西·亚当斯在1834年南卡罗来纳州发生危机时写道。在20世纪80和90年代，当我在亚洲担任驻外记者时，人们谈论的是“日本第一”，到了2000年代，专家们则在辩论中国经济将在哪一年超越美国。如今，一些人认为这可能永远不会发生。而且，美国并没有像许多其他工业国家那样出现人口增长的崩塌。我们更年轻化的人口结构（部分得益于移民）赋予了国家生机与活力。So I don’t believe that our decline is inevitable. But much will depend on whether we have the wisdom to revert to our proven strategy of investing in human capital, welcoming immigrants and embracing free markets against a backdrop of some equality.因此，我不相信我们的衰落是不可避免的。但这将在很大程度上取决于我们是否有智慧，在保持一定平等的背景下，重新回归到投资人力资本、欢迎移民和拥抱自由市场的行之有效的战略上来。Onward to the 500th!向着500周年迈进！纪思道(Nicholas Kristof) 2001起成为时报专栏作家，曾两次获得普利策奖。他最新出版的回忆录名为《追逐希望：一名记者的报道生涯》(“Chasing Hope: A Reporter’s Life”)。欢迎在X上关注他：@NickKristof。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。