VICTORIA KIM2026年7月9日On the day that China announced that it had successfully fired a submarine-launched ballistic missile into the middle of the Pacific Ocean, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of Australia was in Suva, the capital of Fiji.就在中国宣布成功向太平洋中部发射一枚潜射弹道导弹的当天，澳大利亚总理阿尔巴尼斯正在斐济首都苏瓦。Mr. Albanese was visiting the country on Monday to sign two long-sought security agreements with Fiji’s leader, Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka. A week earlier, he was smiling and shaking hands with the prime minister of Vanuatu, having finalized a treaty with that island nation. The following day, he was in the Solomon Islands, standing shoulder to shoulder with its new leader and announcing aid for education and policing.阿尔巴尼斯总理周一访问该国，与斐济总理西蒂维尼·兰布卡签署了两项期待已久的安全协议。一周前，他还微笑着与瓦努阿图总理握手，与这个岛国达成一项条约。次日，他出现在所罗门群岛，与该国新领导人并肩而立，宣布提供教育和警务援助。The diplomatic blitz from the Australian leader is just the latest in what’s been a yearslong push to win over the island nations of the Pacific, by way of development assistance and smiling photo ops but also in securing legally binding mutual defense treaties and alliances.阿尔巴尼斯这一连串密集的外交行动只是澳大利亚近年来持续争取太平洋岛国的最新举措。除了提供发展援助、安排微笑合影，澳大利亚还积极推动签署具有法律约束力的共同防御条约和联盟协议。Driving Australia’s efforts is what its foreign minister, Penny Wong, has termed a “permanent contest” for the Pacific region with an increasingly emboldened China.推动澳大利亚这一系列努力的正是该国外长黄英贤所说的:与日益强势的中国围绕太平洋地区展开的一场“持久竞争”。The region’s 14 sovereign states, many of which are remote and small in size and population but also encompass large swaths of exclusive economic zones in the Pacific Ocean, have been the focal point of heated geopolitical rivalry because of their strategic location. Many of the islands played key roles in the fighting during World War II, and have been the site of consequential weapons testing. They are also positioned near key shipping lanes ferrying international cargo, while the ocean floor holds valuable minerals, drawing massive commercial interest in deep-sea mining.太平洋地区共有14个主权国家。虽然其中许多国家偏处一隅，国土和人口规模都很小，但在太平洋拥有广阔的专属经济区，所以因战略位置重要而成为激烈地缘政治角力的焦点。许多岛屿曾在第二次世界大战期间发挥关键作用，也曾是重要武器试验的地点。此外，它们毗邻国际货运的重要航道，同时海底蕴藏着宝贵的矿产资源，吸引了对深海采矿的巨大商业兴趣。Here is how the jostling for influence in the region has been playing out:以下是各方争夺该地区影响力的博弈态势：Australia Redoubling Ties With Pacific Neighbors澳大利亚加强与太平洋邻国的关系Australia historically had close ties to island nations in the South Pacific, having been former colonial administrators to some and a founding member of the Pacific Islands Forum, the region’s most important multilateral organization.澳大利亚与南太平洋岛国历来关系密切：它曾是其中一些国家的殖民管理者，也是该地区最重要的多边组织——太平洋岛国论坛的创始成员。China’s interest in the region snapped into focus in 2018 when reports emerged that it was seeking to establish a military base in Vanuatu. In the years leading up to 2018, Beijing had steeply increased aid and investment into countries in the region, many of which are impoverished and vulnerable to natural disasters.中国对该地区的兴趣在2018年曾引起广泛关注。当时有报道称，北京正寻求在瓦努阿图建立军事基地。在2018年之前的几年里，中国已大幅增加了对该地区国家的援助和投资，其中许多国家经济贫困，也容易受到自然灾害影响。去年，在所罗门群岛霍尼亚拉中国国有企业中国土木工程集团有限公司承建的一个道路项目上，中国工人与所罗门群岛工人在现场施工。 Adam Ferguson for The New York TimesIn 2022, a leaked draft of a security agreement between China and the Solomon Islands prompted concerns that the deal would open the door to Chinese security forces being deployed to the region. That year, China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, traveled to several Pacific island countries trying to round up support — unsuccessfully — for a sweeping regional deal that would have expanded Beijing’s role in policing, maritime cooperation and cybersecurity.2022年，中国与所罗门群岛安全协议草案泄露，引发外界担忧，认为该协议可能为中国安全部队部署到该地区打开大门。同年，中国外长王毅访问多个太平洋岛国，试图争取各国支持一项覆盖整个地区的广泛协议，希望扩大中国在警务、海洋合作和网络安全等领域的作用，但最终未能成功。In the years since, Australia has rapidly dialed up efforts to reinforce ties with the Pacific and present itself as the more desirable partner in both economic development and security. Many of the countries do not have their own militaries and have struggled with policing resources in moments of crisis, such as large-scale unrest in the Solomon Islands in 2021.此后几年，澳大利亚迅速加大力度，强化与太平洋岛国的联系，并努力把自己塑造成在经济发展和安全领域都比中国更具吸引力的合作伙伴。许多岛国没有自己的军队，在危机时刻也缺乏足够的警力，例如2021年所罗门群岛爆发大规模骚乱期间就是如此。In the past two years, Australia has signed treaties with Nauru and Vanuatu and entered into alliances with Papua New Guinea and Fiji. Australia and Fiji also announced an “Ocean of Peace Alliance” in addition to their bilateral agreement, opening the door for other countries to join a regional bloc.过去两年，澳大利亚与瑙鲁和瓦努阿图签署了条约，并与巴布亚新几内亚和斐济结成了联盟。澳大利亚和斐济还在双边协议基础上宣布了“和平海洋联盟”，并为其他国家加入这一区域集团预留了空间。Sam Roggeveen, director of the international security program at the Lowy Institute, said a Chinese military outpost anywhere in the Pacific would be unacceptable for Australia because it would bring the reach of Beijing’s growing military forces much closer to its shores.洛伊研究所国际安全项目主任萨姆·罗格文表示，中国在太平洋任何地方建立军事据点对澳大利亚而言都不可接受，因为这将使北京不断扩张的军事力量更接近澳大利亚本土。“The most significant part of all of these agreements is that they attempt to make it if not impossible, much more difficult for China to establish a permanent military presence,” he said.“所有这些协议最重要的意义在于，它们试图限制中国建立永久性军事力量——即使不能完全杜绝，也会使其难度大增，”他说。China Doing ‘What Great Powers Do’中国正在做“大国会做的事”China, for its part, has always maintained its intentions were only to cooperate with the Pacific island nations as equals and has denied interest in establishing a base. A Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Mao Ning, said this week the contest was in Australia’s imagination: “We do not engage in geopolitical rivalry or seek selfish political gains,” she said when asked about the agreement with Fiji.中国方面则始终坚称，其目的是以平等伙伴的身份与太平洋岛国开展合作，并否认有兴趣建立军事基地。中国外交部发言人毛宁本周表示，所谓竞争不过是澳大利亚的臆想。当被问及澳大利亚与斐济签署协议时，她说：“我们不搞地缘博弈，不谋求政治私利。”Some leaders of Pacific island nations in the past have welcomed the competition, an approach that has been described as “friends to all, enemies to none” which could be leveraged to attract assistance and investment to a region in need.一些太平洋岛国领导人过去曾对这种竞争持欢迎态度，将其描述为一种“广交朋友、不树敌手”的策略，可借此吸引这个亟需发展的地区获得更多援助与投资。James Batley, a fellow at the Australian National University and a former Australian diplomat who has served in various Pacific island nations, said over time, the countries may have come to see the limits of that balance, as China has made aggressive diplomatic pushes and flexed its military might with two ballistic missile tests in the region.澳大利亚国立大学研究员、曾在多个太平洋岛国任职的前澳大利亚外交官詹姆斯·巴特利表示，随着时间的推移，随着中国持续发动强势外交攻势，并在该地区进行了两次弹道导弹试验以展示军事实力，这些国家可能已经看到了这种平衡策略的局限性。“They are paying a price for fostering a sense of competition; they can’t just quarantine themselves from the impacts of that,” Mr. Batley said.“它们为培育竞争氛围付出了代价；没有任何国家能把自己完全隔绝在这种竞争影响之外，”巴特利说。The latest missile test may have helped cement support for Australia’s push in the region, Oliver Nobetau, Pacific islands program director at the Lowy Institute, wrote in an analysis.洛伊研究所太平洋岛屿项目主任奥利弗·诺贝托在一篇分析中写道，最近的导弹试验可能有助于巩固太平洋岛国对澳大利亚地区战略的支持。中国官方媒体发布的一张照片显示，周一中国潜艇试射了一枚远程弹道导弹。“A missile test makes Pacific countries spectators in their own region, much like they were during the Second World War. Albanese’s opening is to offer something different,” he wrote.“导弹试验让太平洋国家在自己的地区沦为旁观者，就像第二次世界大战期间一样。阿尔巴尼斯提供的是一种不同的选择，”他写道。Ms. Wong, Australia’s foreign minister, said this week that “China will continue to do what great powers do. It will continue to assert its interests.” Countries in the region must band together to protect theirs, she said.澳大利亚外长黄英贤本周表示：“中国将继续做所有大国会做的事，它将继续坚持自己的利益。”她说，该地区国家必须团结起来，维护自身利益。Prime Minister Matthew Wale of the Solomon Islands had a simpler request: no more missile tests.所罗门群岛总理马修·威尔提出了一个更简单的要求：不要再进行导弹试验。“We don’t want to see any more countries, China, America, anybody, we don’t want anybody testing the ICBMs in the Pacific islands region,” he said on Tuesday. “That’s the bottom line. Be our friend, but don’t threaten us.”“我们不希望再看到任何国家——中国、美国，还是其他任何国家——我们不希望任何人在太平洋岛国地区试射洲际弹道导弹，”他周二说。“这是底线。做我们的朋友，但不要威胁我们。”Victoria Kim是时报驻澳大利亚记者，常驻悉尼，报道澳大利亚、新西兰和泛太平洋地区。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。