July Montly trades

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July Montly tradesBTCUSDT Perpetual ContractBYBIT:BTCUSDT.PsabinaGMJune closed with both a monthly and a weekly BOS, as expected The new daily BOS gives us a much closer daily MSB level (67,300) to watch for a potential bullish shift. However, I do not expect that scenario to develop this month. Since July has already swept June's low, the probability of also sweeping June's high during the same month remains very low, historically around 8%. Because of that, the only monthly setup that currently interests me is the short side. Currently short from the previous month's 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, aligned with the H4 200 EMA. On the daily chart, price is also formed a rounded top around the daily bearish order block, a classic reversal pattern. If price squeezes again, into the daily 50 EMA, I will still be interested in looking for another short opportunity. For me, the bearish thesis becomes invalid if we print a daily bullish MSB, meaning, a daily close above 67,300. Of course, any scenario is possible. It is not impossible for price to fully engulf June's monthly BOS candle, but the charts are not suggesting that outcome yet. On the daily timeframe, price also appears to be forming a falling wedge. If that pattern develops further, it could become an attractive reversal setup. Ideally, I would like to see liquidity taken below 53K, followed by a strong reclaim of that level. In that case, the lower trendline of the wedge would become my invalidation level for a long position, provided the reversal is confirmed with strong price action.