NZD/USD: Break, retest, rally?New Zealand Dollar / U.S. DollarFOREXCOM:NZDUSDFOREXcomNZD/USD may be on the cusp of a bullish breakout from an ascending triangle, with a sustained move above 0.5724 potentially paving the way for a retest of 0.5774, a level that repeatedly acted as both support and resistance over recent months. The pair failed to clear 0.5724 late last week, prompting a pullback towards the lower boundary of the structure. However, the backdrop has improved following the RBNZ's hawkish rate hike on Wednesday, reinforced by a surge in the BNZ Manufacturing PMI to 59.9 in June, signalling a sharp acceleration in manufacturing activity. A sustained break above 0.5724, ideally followed by a successful backtest and bounce, would provide greater confidence that the breakout is genuine. That would offer a potential entry point for longs, allowing for a stop to be placed below the level for protection, targeting 0.5774 initially before shifting focus to the 200DMA. Momentum is also becoming more constructive for bulls. RSI (14) continues to trend higher and is approaching the neutral 50 level, while MACD has crossed above its signal line while remaining below zero. Combined, they suggest the bearish momentum that dominated in late June has dissipated and may be giving way to building upside momentum. As always, broader risk sentiment remains an important swing factor. Any further easing in tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz would likely support risk-sensitive currencies such as the Kiwi, increasing the probability of the bullish setup playing out. Good luck! DS