Sandisk (SNDK) LONG — 1D ALMA Setup (WR 85%)Sandisk CorporationBATS:SNDKGoldfinch_song█ SETUP Sandisk · BATS:SNDK · 1D · long only. ALMA Averaging Strategy: ALMA 3 / σ2, SD band 2, min diff 1/1, 25% per bar, up to 4 adds, hard stop −10% from average entry. Strategy Tester (SNDK 1D): Win rate 85% · profit factor 14.1 · max drawdown 38% Typical hold ~17×1D bars on winners · high-payoff memory-name mean-reversion template ═ █ WHY NOW Tuesday US cash close — fresh 1D ALMA long on 08 Jul 13:30 UTC ~$1,618. First lot on the daily template after a sharp drawdown from the June highs — storage/memory beta on a bar-close signal, not an AI-headline chase. Snapshot ~$1,657 on the 08 Jul board (~+2.4% from fill). Hard stop zone −10% from entry ~$1,456. Exits follow Pine ALMA flip + min diff or the hard stop. ═ █ MACRO Sector: SNDK = SanDisk · NAND flash / enterprise SSD · WDC spin-off (2025) — AI data-center storage and the NAND shortage thesis (Micron tight supply, multi-year LTAs with price floors), not GPU silicon. Tape (Jun–8 Jul): Mixed supercycle → reset — June +~34% on Micron FQ3 blowout (25 Jun) and PT hikes (Citi $2,500, Bernstein $3,000, BofA $2,500, Goldman $2,200); early July sentiment reversal — Meta Compute oversupply scare (01–02 Jul, SNDK −~14%) and Samsung sell-the-news (06–07 Jul) erased most June gains (−31% from the June peak by 07 Jul). Analysts still cite ~$42B contracted backlog and LTAs — but late-window tape is profit-taking / glut narrative, not a fresh upgrade chase. Near-term: SK Hynix (SKHY) Nasdaq listing (~10 Jul) — competition for US AI-memory flows; FQ4 earnings (~13 Aug, confirm IR) — NAND ASP / LTA guide. Execution is 1D ALMA on the post-unwind bar (~$1,618 after the July flush), not an earnings preview or chase into June highs. Book note: a separate 4H VWAP long from 02 Jul (~$1,759) remains underwater — this publish tracks only the fresh 1D ALMA lot. ═ █ OUTLOOK Positive factors - 85% WR · PF 14.1 — rare payoff skew on a 40-day US equity sample - Fresh daily entry inside the 24h publish window — first bar on the high-WR template - ALMA — daily stretch (fuel): 1D SHORT · S:5 vs SAvg 2.4 OVERHEAT-S — time below the daily band exceeds norm · MR fuel on the crash, not «SHORT = bearish» - ALMA — execution ladder: 1H LONG · L:3 · 4H LONG · L:1 at the band — fast boards aligned with the new daily long · 15m S:1 first bar below fast ALMA (touch, not chase) - EMA — overheated below (fuel): 1H Cur S:29 vs Avg S:6.7 · +4.5% dev — stretched below-session on the fast ladder after the July flush - SMC — at the fill ~$1,618: 4H FVG Raid Bull bull-event bounce B63.4% Br36.6% (n=71) · 1D raid B68.4% Br31.6% (n=19) — close ≥ ref follow-through at the entry print · aligns with 1D ALMA long - SMC — 4H: OB Enter Normal Bull @ ~$1,618 · bounce B55.6% Br44.4% (n=9) — bid-side structure at fill - TL AI — Support Break 06 Jul: bounce B81% Br19% (n=47) — elevated post-break bounce history on SNDK; supports the MR template despite the TL label - Scoring: long +31.3 vs short −21.3 on the snapshot board Negative factors - EMA — young below (execution TF): 1D Cur S:4 vs Avg S:7.7 · +9.0% dev — below-session not yet overstretched on the daily chart; selloff can extend before the 1D ALMA band works - EMA — overheated above (slow charts): 3D Cur L:78 vs Avg L:2.3 · −15.4% dev — long above-session on slow EMA after the June spike · giveback / coil risk even with price back near the line - EMA — weekly crash context: 1W Above · L:23 · −51.2% dev — extreme unwind from the YTD memory rally; gap risk on headline opens - ALMA — slow boards young: 3D/1W both SHORT · S:2 ≈ SAvg ~2.1 — higher-TF below-band time not stretched yet vs the overheated 1D read - SMC — overhead ~$1,745 (02 Jul bull FVG): prior June shelf · bull-event bounce B81.3% Br18.8% (n=16) — first test is a reaction zone, not a free pass; 06 Jul bear FVG formed/filled adds fresh supply into the same area - Gap risk on memory-sector headlines — −10% stop can slip on the US open Takeaway: the 85% WR daily template, 1D ALMA OVERHEAT-S, 1H below-EMA stretch, and SMC/TL bounce at ~$1,618 align with a post-crash MR entry — but 1D young below-EMA and 3D overheated above-time cap the first leg; exit path remains Pine / −10%, not a chase back to ~$1,745 without ALMA/EMA cooperation. Base case: 1D ALMA holds ~$1,618–1,680 · 1H/4H long boards hold · slow grind toward prior supply ~$1,745 if memory sentiment stabilizes. Bear case: lose daily ALMA · 1D young below extends · 4H liquidation flush · −10% toward ~$1,456 from ~$1,618 entry. Chart: SNDK 1D — ALMA Averaging Strategy. Educational idea. Live position — past backtest ≠ future results. NFA.