LYDIA DEPILLIS, ANA SWANSON2026年7月8日去年，特朗普总统与高市早苗首相在日本横须贺会面。日本长期以来一直是美国最大的外国投资来源国。 Haiyun Jiang/The New York TimesOver the course of 2025, President Trump made bold claims about the amount of investment pouring into the United States from foreign countries. With his administration putting steep tariffs on imports, he argued, foreign companies would be forced to locate their factories in America for access to the U.S. market.2025年间，特朗普总统就外国对美投资规模屡屡发出惊人之语。他宣称，随着政府对进口商品加征高额关税，外国公司将被迫把工厂迁至美国，以换取进入美国市场的机会。Mr. Trump claimed investment numbers that increased from $17 trillion last September, to $18 trillion in December, to $21 trillion. That would amount to two-thirds of U.S. gross domestic product, and is far more than the White House ever enumerated on its website tracking the commitments.特朗普声称的投资数字不断攀升：从去年9月的17万亿美元，到12月的18万亿美元，再到21万亿美元。这一数额相当于美国国内生产总值的三分之二，也远超白宫官网追踪相关投资承诺所列出的金额。Nevertheless, some of that investment was promised by U.S. trading partners who were looking for ways to appease the president in the face of stiff tariffs. Mr. Trump extracted about $5 trillion in commitments, over the course of up to 10 years, from the European Union, Asia and the Persian Gulf. If that money materialized, it would constitute an overwhelming influx of capital, nearly double the average rate of investment America received from 2015 through 2024.尽管如此，其中部分投资承诺确实来自美国的贸易伙伴，它们希望在面对高额关税时，通过作出让步来安抚特朗普。在长达10年的时间里，特朗普从欧盟、亚洲以及波斯湾地区获得了约5万亿美元的投资承诺。如果最终全部兑现，将形成规模惊人的资本流入，几乎是美国2015年至2024年资本平均流入水平的两倍。Investment deals can take years to close, meaning that definitive evidence will take time to show up. For now, the early data contains notes of both promise and concern. Factors other than federal policy probably contributed to an apparent surge in new foreign investment last year, while a broader measure suggests that, on the whole, foreign investors are treading cautiously.投资交易往往需要数年才能落地，这意味着确凿的数据证据尚需时日方能浮现。目前，初步数据喜忧参半。去年外国新增投资之所以看起来大幅增加，可能不仅仅是联邦政府政策造成的，还有其他因素在发挥作用；而一项更宏观的衡量指标则显示，整体而言，外国投资者依然保持谨慎。“This year, some things are positive, but it’s a mixed picture,” said Gregory Auclair, a statistician with the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “It just means that you’re going to need a lot in future years to catch up with the amounts that are promised, if they are credible at all.”“今年，有些方面是积极的，但情况喜忧参半，”彼得森国际经济研究所统计学家格雷戈里·奥克莱尔表示。“这意味着，如果这些承诺真的可信，就需要在未来几年大量新增投资，才能赶上承诺的金额。”New foreign direct investment in the United States rebounded significantly, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The figure increased to $232 billion last year from $155 billion in 2024, reversing a three-year downward trend. The data includes foreign acquisitions of U.S. companies, as well as money foreign firms spend to establish new companies and expand existing ones. The ramp-up is also reflected in project announcements collected by FDI Intelligence, a subsidiary of The Financial Times.根据美国经济分析局的数据，美国的外国直接投资显著反弹。该数字从2024年的1550亿美元增至去年的2320亿美元，扭转了连续三年的下降趋势。该数据包括外国公司对美国公司的收购，以及外国公司用于建立新公司和扩大现有业务的支出。英国《金融时报》旗下FDI Intelligence搜集的项目公告也反映出类似的增长趋势。But the federal statistics agency publishes another measure that takes a more holistic view of investment, incorporating foreign money that is withdrawn from the country as well. When divestments, intracompany lending and other financial flows are included, the trajectory changes: Net investment into the United States decreased slightly last year and sat below the average for the previous decade.然而，联邦统计机构还公布了另一项更为全面的衡量指标，它将外国资本撤离美国的情况同时纳入统计。当把撤资、企业内部借贷以及其他资金流动计算在内后，走势便截然不同：去年流入美国的净投资小幅下降，低于前十年的均值。In recent years, international capital has increasingly arrived in the form of earnings from U.S. affiliates that are reinvested locally, rather than from new businesses either purchased or built from the ground up.近年来，国际资本越来越多地以美国子公司收益再投资的形式流入，而非通过购买或新建企业的方式流入。“Companies that are sophisticated and familiar with the U.S. market continue to double down on their investments here, but new equity is just not coming into the U.S. in the proportion that it once was,” said Jonathan Samford, the president of the Global Business Alliance, which supports foreign investors. “The car continues down the highway in forward motion, but it’s not accelerating.”“那些经验丰富、熟悉美国市场的企业仍在不断加大对美国的投资，但新的股权资本流入美国的规模已经不及从前，”全球商业联盟总裁乔纳森·桑福德说，该联盟致力于支持外国投资者。“汽车仍在高速公路上向前行驶，但已不再加速。”Trump’s tariff stick特朗普的关税大棒The Trump administration has used a heavy hand to push foreigners to invest in the United States, lowering tariffs on the European Union, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and other trading partners in exchange for huge investment promises. Foreign governments and companies have pledged to invest in U.S. chip plants, nuclear projects, ports, mines and factories.特朗普政府采取强硬手段推动外国对美投资，通过降低对欧盟、日本、韩国、台湾和其他贸易伙伴的关税，换取巨额投资承诺。外国政府和企业已承诺投资美国芯片工厂、核能项目、港口、矿山和工厂。Some commitments, for example from the European Union, appear to contain repackaged announcements that companies had already intended to make. But the biggest such promise — a $550 billion investment pledge from Japan, America’s biggest source of foreign investment — has been moving forward.其中一些承诺——例如来自欧盟的部分投资——似乎只是把企业原本就计划宣布的投资重新包装了一遍。不过，规模最大的承诺，即日本提出的5500亿美元投资计划（日本是美国最大的外国投资来源国），目前正在推进中。Reva Goujon, a director at the Rhodium Group, a research firm, said uncertainty about forthcoming tariffs on semiconductors and other products, as well as over the U.S. trade deal with Canada and Mexico, was holding some investments back.研究公司荣鼎集团的总监雷瓦·古戎表示，即将出台的半导体等产品关税的不确定性，以及美国与加拿大和墨西哥贸易协定的不确定性，正在阻碍部分投资。Foreign governments have felt less pressure to abide by deals made under the threat of tariffs that the Supreme Court overturned in February. For some companies, tariffs have raised the cost of imported inputs, like the steel, aluminum or machinery needed to build new factories.今年2月最高法院推翻了关税令之后，外国政府不再像以前那样急于兑现当初在关税威胁下做出的承诺。对部分企业而言，关税推高了进口原材料的成本，例如建造新工厂所需的钢材、铝材和机械设备。But Ms. Goujon said Japan, which has been dealing with a stagnant economy, recognized the need to seek higher returns abroad and strengthen ties with the United States given security challenges from China.但古戎表示，日本长期经济增长停滞，因此认识到有必要到海外寻求更高回报；同时，考虑到来自中国的安全挑战，日本也希望加强与美国的联系。“Is there political will by Japan and by many of these companies to invest in strategic projects in the U.S.?” she asked, rhetorically. “Absolutely.”她反问道：“日本以及许多企业，是否有政治意愿投资美国的战略项目？当然有。”Bigger levers更深层的驱动力Much of what pushes foreign investment up or down has little to do with government policy. Rather, it’s driven by macroeconomic factors that propel capital across borders, or technological developments that attract investors.推动外资涨落的很大一部分因素其实与政府政策关系并不大，而是由驱动跨境资本流动的宏观经济因素，或吸引投资者的新技术发展所决定。来自日本的投资运作结构颇为新颖，由商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克亲自谈判敲定。For example, the uptick in new foreign investment in 2025 was partly driven by lower interest rates that unfroze mergers and acquisitions, driving some of the foreign purchases of companies in America. The year also saw mounting investment in data centers for artificial intelligence, reaching nearly $500 billion worldwide, according to Gartner. The United Nations found that global foreign investment flows rose 6 percent in 2025, mostly across a small number of megaprojects in developed nations.例如，2025年外国新增投资增长的部分原因在于利率下降，使此前冻结的企业并购活动重新活跃起来，从而带动了外国企业收购美国公司的交易。同年，全球人工智能数据中心投资也出现持续增长。根据Gartner的数据，这类投资规模已接近5000亿美元。联合国的数据亦显示，2025年全球外国投资流量增长了6%，主要集中在发达国家的少数大型项目上。“This pickup — and many of the sectors are similar — is a global phenomenon,” said Adnan Mazarei, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “It’s not entirely obvious that this is a result of tariffs or not, because the Europeans are not doing this, but there is huge investment happening in, for example, A.I. and data centers all over the world.”“这轮回升——而且涉及的很多行业都差不多——是一个全球性现象，”彼得森国际经济研究所高级研究员阿德南·马扎赖说。“这究竟是不是关税政策的结果，并不能完全确定，因为欧洲并未这样做，但人工智能和数据中心等领域正在全球范围内掀起巨额投资浪潮。”But political decisions can swamp those larger forces, and Mr. Trump’s attack on Iran may be one of them. The resulting war has had two effects: One, it raised energy prices, which fueled inflation and drove up interest rates. And two, it made countries that had been large sources of outbound investment rethink their overseas projects.但政治决策可能压过这些更大的力量，特朗普对伊朗的攻击可能就是一例。由此引发的战争产生了两个影响：一是推高了能源价格，加剧了通货膨胀并推高了利率；二是使那些原本作为对外投资重要来源的国家开始重新考虑自己的海外投资项目。That’s particularly true of nations in the Persian Gulf, which now have a lot of damaged energy and defense infrastructure to rebuild.这一点在波斯湾国家身上尤为突出，它们如今有大量受损的能源和国防基础设施需要重建。“The war is now slowing down the plan of outward investment,” said James Zhan, who heads the board of the World Association of Investment Promotion Agencies. “As the war is dragging longer, and there’s a cease-fire but there’s no durable peace, there’s no re-establishment of stability, so countries need to mind home.”“这场战争正在拖慢对外投资的步伐，”世界投资促进机构协会执理会主席詹晓宁说。“随着战争持续时间越来越长，虽然实现了停火，但尚未形成持久和平，稳定局面迟迟未能重建，因此各国必须把更多资源放在国内。"The war isn’t the only thing weighing on foreign investment. Removing Biden-era subsidies for clean energy development cut short a boom in battery manufacturing and renewable energy deployment, much of which was financed from overseas. That’s particularly true of Chinese companies, according to an analysis by the Rhodium Group.战争并非影响外国投资的唯一因素。美国取消了拜登时期的清洁能源发展补贴，中断了电池制造和可再生能源建设的热潮——这些项目大量依赖海外资本。根据荣鼎集团的分析，这一点对中国企业而言尤为明显。The broader loss of confidence in the United States’ sticking to any policy commitments has damaged its reputation as a safe home for global capital. A survey by the consulting firm Kearney found that America substantially dropped in the eyes of foreign investors last year, with Canada and Japan gaining favor.此外，美国在遵守政策承诺方面整体信誉的下降也削弱了它作为全球资本安全投资目的地的声誉。咨询公司科尔尼的一项调查发现，去年美国在外国投资者心目中的吸引力明显下降，而加拿大和日本则更受青睐。“I think there are some really fundamental doubts about the long-term trustworthiness of the U.S. both as an economic partner and a military ally,” said Thilo Hanemann, a partner at the Rhodium Group. He added, “There’s been a huge change of mind over the past two years on that.”“我认为，无论是作为经济伙伴还是军事盟友，美国的长期可信度正面临根本性的质疑，”荣鼎咨询合伙人提洛·汉尼曼说。他还表示，“过去两年间，外界对此的看法已发生了巨大转变。”Lydia DePillis为《纽约时报》报道美国经济。她自2009年以来一直从事新闻工作，可以通过电邮联系她：lydia.depillis@nytimes.com.Ana Swanson报道贸易和国际经济新闻，常驻华盛顿。她从事新闻工作已超过十年。翻译：杜然点击查看本文英文版。