USD/JPY Retraces from Peaks on Tokyo Intervention RumorsUSD/JPYOANDA:USDJPYNouzTraderUSD/JPY moved moderately lower throughout Thursday's Asian session, halting its four-day winning streak. This minor downward correction reflects speculative short-covering by market participants due to tactical concerns about physical intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ MoF Intervention Alarm: Market Takes Partial Profits The JPY's downside is gaining some temporary respite, driven purely by psychological factors of institutional capital protection: - 🔸Stealth Intervention Fears: Price positions that have overexploited the area above 162.00 have sparked widespread concern that the Japanese MoF under Satsuki Katayama could launch a covert intervention at any time without verbal warning. This fear of a liquidity squeeze forced speculators to partially close their short yen positions ahead of the week's close. - 🔸FOMC Minutes Absent Hawkish Surprises: The daily weakness of the US Dollar (USD) was exacerbated by the release of the June FOMC Meeting Minutes earlier this morning. The document reveals a rift within Fed officials, with many participants assessing the current federal funds rate as already within or slightly below the appropriate target range for year-end, reducing dollar buying aggression. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ Technical Analysis 4-Hour Chart (H4) Technically, on the 4-hour chart (H4), the current USD/JPY downward correction is still categorised as a healthy minor technical decline within the dominant macro uptrend structure: - 🔸Buy the Dips Opportunity: The pro-USD fundamental backdrop and the 275 bps interest rate gap indicate that any intraday declines will likely quickly encounter buying from large market participants and remain limited. - 🔸New York Session Tonight: The afternoon and evening movement will be directly triggered by the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims economic data (7:30 PM WIB) and speeches by FOMC officials. Lower-than-expected job claims data will immediately trigger further mass buying in USD/JPY, leading to a climb back towards 162.50.