$OBE FFO Misses on Hedging Losses. Free Cash Flow Negative!Obsidian Energy LtdTSX_DLY:OBEConnectmyCurrencyObsidian Energy had a remarkable run. 📈 Up 137% over the past year, the stock exploded from CAD $5.35 to a 52 week high of CAD $19.83 on the back of strong oil prices and production momentum. 🛢️ But the chart has now printed a textbook weekly supply zone and the fundamental picture is deteriorating fast. 📉 This is the short setup. 🔻 The Q1 2026 numbers tell the real story. ⚠️ Funds flow from operations came in at CAD $61.0 million, below what the market needed to see given the capital expenditure commitments. 💸 Free cash flow was negative at CAD $(20.4) million, with capital expenditures running at CAD $79.7 million against incoming cash. 📉 Net loss hit CAD $18.7 million, driven by realized and unrealized hedging losses that wiped out operating gains. 🔴 Net debt stands at CAD $279.8 million. Production of 28,733 boe/d came in below the prior year comparative period, largely due to the Pembina asset disposition. 🏭 The oil price assumption underpinning management guidance is conservative and potentially optimistic relative to where WTI is heading. 🛢️ Management guided full year 2026 using a WTI assumption of US$58 per barrel for H1 and US$62 per barrel for H2. At that pricing, full year FFO is only CAD $225 million with free cash flow of just CAD $7 million razor thin margin for a company spending CAD $190 million to CAD $230 million in capex. ⚡ If WTI softens further, free cash flow goes negative for the full year. 🔻 The stock has already begun fading from its highs. 📊 The month over month decline is already 16.38%. 📉 Insiders have been exercising options and selling at elevated prices. 💼 BMO Capital has a price target of CAD $19 and RBC Capital has CAD $18, but those targets were set during peak oil sentiment and the stock is already well below them. 🐻 The 52 week range sits between CAD $7.24 and CAD $19.83. Next earnings are due 30 July 2026. 📅 The weekly chart has printed a clean supply zone following the spike to CAD $19.83. ✅ The bounce into supply is the short entry. 🎯 🔴 Sell Zone ~ CAD $13.48 area (0.5 Fibonacci Weekly) Weekly supply zone. Price has bounced from lows back into a level where sellers are expected to step in. 📉 Entry (Sell): CAD $13.48 🛑 Stop: CAD $13.88 (2.967% above entry) 🎯 Target: CAD $10.44 (22.6% downside from entry) 📈 Risk/Reward Ratio: 7.6 📅 Next Earnings: 30 July 2026 💸 Net Debt: CAD $279.8 million 🌍 52 Week Range: CAD $7.24 to CAD $19.83 🛢️ WTI Guidance Assumption: US$58 to US$62 per barrel FFO missing. 📉 Free cash flow negative. 💸 Hedging losses mounting. 🔴 The weekly supply zone is the short entry. Let price come to the level and let the trade do the work. 🔻 ⚠️ Not financial advice. Manage your risk.