Gold continues to be under pressure; can this defensive line holGold / U.S. DollarFOREXCOM:XAUUSDElina-XauGold continues to be under pressure; can this defensive line hold in this weak market? 🕗 Pre-market chat: This market is truly frustrating! At the open this morning, gold was still behaving indifferently 💤—the price hovered below the short-term moving average, and every attempt to rise was met with a sharp pullback. To be honest, watching this movement is making me a little nervous 😰. Geopolitically, the Middle East powder keg is flaring up again 💥, with Trump stating directly, "A ceasefire between the US and Iran? Forget about it." Logically, gold should be secretly pleased with this situation, right? But it just can't seem to rise; it just can't break through the technical resistance levels—a classic case of failing to strengthen when it should, which is true weakness. Experienced investors know the taste of this "stagnant rise"—it's incredibly frustrating. 📉 Market Recap: Defenses Remain, But Confidence is Lacking Yesterday, gold was once again battered by the 20-day moving average, trending lower throughout the day, reaching a low near $4022. While it didn't break the psychological barrier of $4020, it's clear to everyone that the $4200 mark? It's been attacked countless times without success. The core resistance level of $4145? Reaching it is like stepping on cotton; it's quickly pushed down. As a seasoned trader who stares at candlestick charts daily, I must honestly say: the current market is weak. Clinging to the outdated notion that "gold will rise when there's geopolitical conflict" will only lead to being proven wrong by the market. The daily chart closed with a bearish doji candlestick, settling near the 10-day moving average. But what worries me most is that the price has quietly slipped back below the moving average band. What does this mean? The hard-earned rebound momentum is being eroded bit by bit. 🎯 Key Level: 4020 – The Bulls' "Gate of Hell" Currently, the $4020 level is worth watching closely: 👉 If it holds: Gold prices have a chance to mount a small-scale rebound. The first hurdle is at $4090-$4100, with strong resistance concentrated at $4120-$4130 (where the 5-day and 20-day moving averages converge, a huge resistance level). 👉 If it breaks through: Once the lower Bollinger Band widens, it's a "slide" downhill – the previous low of $3950 will be directly exposed to the bears. Further down, there's the $3940-$3900 mid-term bottom area; the prospect is too daunting to contemplate. My personal feeling is that unless there's some bombshell news tonight, the probability of the market breaking through 4020 directly isn't too high. But! If the rebound doesn't even touch 4120, then we need to be highly wary of a second round of selling after a period of consolidation – we've seen this scenario far too many times this year. 🌙 Tonight's variables: Data + Speeches, who will be the "spoiler"? Tonight's "news feast" is quite plentiful 🍽️, let me break it down for you guys— 🇺🇸 First up are the US initial jobless claims and existing home sales data. These two are expected to be in a "good-bad" state, so I predict the market will likely fluctuate back and forth. Don't rush in just because you see a spike; you're likely to get hit from both sides. 🇪🇺 Next is the ECB's June monetary policy meeting minutes. If the ECB continues to release hawkish signals, the euro will strengthen, and the dollar will suffer, which would be a short-term lifeline for gold. However, note that the ECB officials have historically been evasive in their statements, so don't expect them to provide clear guidance. 🗣️ The main event is yet to come—New York Fed President Williams, whose influence is second only to Powell, will speak. His previous stance has been "neutral and wait-and-see," and he's the type to speak very cautiously. But precisely because of this, even the slightest shift in his wording tonight will send the dollar reeling. If he leans even slightly hawkish, gold could suffer another blow tonight. ⚠️ Don't put all your hopes on the news! The technical picture has already weakened. Even if a short-lived bullish candlestick appears tonight, unless it can hold above 4120-4130 with significant volume, I will still consider it a "correction," not a "reversal"—don't let one bullish candlestick change your mind. ⚔️ Today's Trading Plan: Primarily short, secondarily long, defense first. In summary, my trading strategy for today can be summed up in one sentence—until the weak structure is effectively broken, blindly expect the downtrend to continue. 📍 Intraday Resistance Levels: 4090-4100 (Short-term hurdle), 4120-4130 (Tough nut to crack 🦴) 📍 Intraday Support Levels: 4050-4020 (Critical line), 3950 (Next stop) 🎯 Specific Strategy 🔻 If the price rebounds to around 4100-4110, consider a small short position. → Place a stop-loss above 4130 (accept loss if it breaks, don't dwell on it) → Target the 4050-4020 area initially. → If the market shows significant volume and downward pressure, set a protective stop-loss and patiently see if it can break through the 4020 resistance level. 💪 🔺 Long positions? Hold off for now! → Unless a clear bottom divergence signal appears around 4020 (e.g., a MACD golden cross on the 1-hour chart with increased volume), and there's a sudden positive news event, → don't easily try to catch a falling knife 🔪—I've been burned too many times, I've learned my lesson. 🔄 If the price unexpectedly surges above 4130 with increased volume, → decisively stop loss on short positions, stay put and observe, reassess your strategy. → Don't hold onto losing positions, don't hold onto losing positions, don't hold onto losing positions (📢) 💭 Having traded gold for quite a few years, I increasingly feel that: technical analysis is the skeleton, but mindset is the flesh and blood ❤️🩹. Right now, bulls and bears are locked in a fierce battle 🤼—some see 3900, some dream of 4500. This is normal; market divergence is inevitable. Without divergence, there's no trading volume. But what I want to say is: what truly allows you to survive in this market is never guessing the right direction, but rather minimizing losses when you're wrong and holding onto winning positions when you're right. Today's market action isn't about being bearish on gold's long-term value—it's about respecting the market's most basic truth until key resistance levels are effectively broken: it's currently weak. Going against it will only hurt your own account. ✍️ Finally, If you also found this article helpful 👇 ✅ Give it a like to let me know you're reading 🔄 Share it with your friends who are also staying up late watching the market; more people means more ideas 💬 Feel free to bombard the comments section—both bullish and bearish opinions are welcome. There are no gods in the market; more perspectives mean more clarity! 🌙 I'll be in the comments section tonight, around the time of the data releases, to post alerts for any unusual activity. Let's watch the market together, see you there! 🍻