BTC - Use CautionBitcoin / TetherUSBINANCE:BTCUSDTVIAQUANTFor many days I have been outlining that BTC has formed a significant low around $57,800. However, with the events that have unfolded today from both a technical and fundamental perspective, it might be time to exercise some caution regarding what the lower timeframes have just signaled. I have the 2-day chart for Bitcoin on the left and the daily USDT dominance chart on the right. The Fundamental Picture Let's outline what is currently happening. The US military launched new strikes against Iran early today, hours after three merchant ships were struck in the Strait of Hormuz. The strikes came during the days-long funeral for Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and threaten to unravel the interim ceasefire deal reached in mid-June. Iran's Foreign Ministry condemned the move, stating the US bears responsibility for the consequences of this breach. This is a significant escalation given that shipping traffic through the Strait had only recently begun stabilizing. Because of these headlines, two of my other ideas have already begun to play out, and both directly affect my current outlook for crypto. DXY Holding Support The first chart this affects is the DXY, specifically the DXY holding very strong support from the retest I outlined in this idea: Oil Rebounding The second chart this affects is oil. I made a post a few days ago outlining that oil looked likely to rebound, and with today's headlines that is exactly what has begun to occur. That idea can be found here: Due to these factors, this may signal a risk-off environment developing, which would not help fuel the rally for BTC I have been predicting back toward $70,000 to $74,000. If market participants begin taking a risk-off approach, it is important to examine the market structure for USDT dominance. USDT Dominance (1 Day Timeframe) Looking at the daily chart, USDT.D is also signaling a reversal back to the upside. This would indicate that participants are looking to exchange crypto back for cash (or USDT in this case). USDT.D printed a shooting star candle formation at the close on July 6th which is a pattern that typically signals a reversal. So far the headlines today have fueled this move fundamentally through the classic flight to safety response to renewed uncertainty. This is also supported by a hidden bullish divergence forming on the RSI. The daily RSI created a lower low while the dominance chart simultaneously created a higher low. Bitcoin (2 Day Timeframe) Now let's examine Bitcoin's chart, which is inversely correlated to the Tether dominance chart I just outlined. Tonight Bitcoin printed a 2D spinning top which is a formation that typically signals indecision and a potential reversal. At the same time a hidden bearish divergence has also printed. A higher high on the RSI while price simultaneously made a lower high. This means that even with additional trend strength behind the move, buyers were not able to translate that strength into a meaningfully higher price. That could be an early warning sign that upside momentum may be exhausting itself on the lower timeframes. On the bright side, the macro weekly and 2-week charts remain intact. But since these developments have occurred on the lower timeframes, they are worth flagging as they could lead to significant developments if they continue to build. It will be important to watch how this news and these events unfold over the next few days. From a market structure perspective, Bitcoin needs to see a higher high in price and USDT.D needs to see a lower low. It may take a few days for this to unfold given today's print, but that would be the signal confirming the previous analysis I have been laying out is still intact. However, if price does start to roll over and USDT dominance continues rising as participants flock back into cash, this would likely signal that escalations are back on the rise and uncertainty has crept back into the market. If the weeklies start to turn red and flip below their open, it will be time to reassess where a potential lower low might occur. Either way I will keep you all updated in real time as I always do. Follow @VIAQUANT to stay updated.